In Thanksgiving Day Use, the stock markets they keep grinding rises and they are close to delete the anomalous ones November losses, a month usually known for being bullish. Supporting the purchases is the now almost certainty that in less than two weeks the Fed will reduce the cost of money in light of the tepid US economic data. The other side of the coin is the dollar suffering which is heading for its biggest weekly decline in at least four months, also because other central banks around the world have ended their rate cuts. Europe Confidence data is expected and stock markets are expected to open higher. Commodity markets, in the lead, they are observing the progress towards a peace agreement with UkraineBitcoin bounces back above $90.000.
Dollar at a disadvantage amid opposing stances from global central banks
Il greenback, although today it has changed little compared to its main currency counterparties, is heading for its biggest weekly decline in at least four months. On the one hand, there is the near certainty that the Fed will cut its rates on December 10th, while it seems that the rest of the central banking world has run out of accommodative policy cartridges and is reversing course. South Korea was the latest to join the hawkish shift today, abandoning its monetary easing policy and causing government bonds to collapse. Even Asahi Noguchi, a former member of the Bank of Japan, He took a slightly hawkish tone, advocating gradual increases in a speech in Kyushu, following a similar line to that of other BOJ policymakers. The day before, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand had effectively stopped its cycle of cuts and today the kiwi continues to gain ground. The minutes of the meeting of the European Central Bank in October, when policymakers kept rates unchanged.
I markets are discounting a 90 basis point probability of rate cuts in the United States between now and the end of 2026, against 75 basis points of increases in Japan and 40 in New Zealand. US dollar index is down about 1% from a six-month high hit last week. Granted, rates are much lower in New Zealand and Japan than in the United States, but currency markets are forward-looking and the direction of movement affects exchange rates, as investors seek the best return. Dealers see the Australian dollar at a potential turning point. After higher-than-expected inflation yesterday, Australian 3- and 10-year rates are the highest in the G10. Yet the Australian dollar is moving slowly in a channel it has maintained for 18 months. Perhaps a yuan rise, which follows him closely, could unlock the currency.
The euro is at 1,160. It is appreciated GBP Following the presentation of the budget bill to the British Parliament, the yield on the ten-year gilt fell seven basis points to 4,42%.
Tech stocks are back on Wall Street as the Fed awaits
Yesterday Wall Street extended its rally on restart of the technology sector and the increasing likelihood of a Fed rate cut, as Americans head into the long weekend of Thanksgiving which actually starts the Christmas shopping, followed by the Black Friday and from Cyber mondayAll three major US stock indexes recorded their fourth consecutive daily gain: the Dow closed at +0,67%, the S&P 500 at +0,69% and the Nasdaq at +0,82%. Fears of excessive valuations on artificial intelligence stocks seem to have vanished with Nvidia which closed with a rebound of 1,37% also thanks to the AI server manufacturer Dell Technologies (+5,83%) which forecast higher-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue.
A survey conducted by Reuters showed that, on average, analysts expect that The S&P 500 Index will rise 12% between now and the end of 2026, driven by continued strength in the technology sector and an accommodative Fed. Yesterday, the Federal Beige Book, which summarizes economic conditions by district, did not change expectations of rate cuts, confirming a worsening of employment.
Attention during this holiday season goes to the consumption, which represent approximately three-quarters of US GDP. The air traffic is often considered a barometer of the consumer health and airlines saw a sharp rise on what is traditionally the busiest day of the year for commercial carriers. So theThe S&P 1500 Airlines Index jumped 3,0%.
Asian stocks rise. The IMF raises its GDP forecast for China.
Asia-Pacific stocks are rising, paring losses since the start of the month to around 1,5%. The MSCI Asian stock index, excluding Japan, is up 0,3%, nearing its first positive week after three losses. JapanTokyo's Nikkei index gained 1%. The yen was little changed, at 156 to the dollar. SoftBank Group with a rise of 3,5% it is increasingly moving away from the low of the last two months reached at the beginning of the week. Other stocks linked to theartificial intelligence: Advanced, chip testing equipment maker, +4,5%, Tokyo Electron, specializing in chipmaking equipment, +2,6%. These three stocks contributed about 440 points to the overall increase in the Nikkei. banks benefit from the growing expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan next month. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group +2%.
About Taiwan, Wall Street Journal writes this morning that in the last few days, Donald Trump he personally tried to to bring China and Japan to an agreementAfter speaking on the phone with Xi Jinping for more than an hour, the president called the Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to invite her to be more cautious in her statements on the issue of overseas territories that Beijing considers to be its responsibility.
In China Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index is up 0,4%. The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges is up 0,3%. Taiwan's Taiex is up 0,4%. International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised Chinese GDP forecasts For 2025, the largest upward revision among emerging markets, estimated to grow 4,1% overall, is expected from 4,0% to 4,8%. Analysts say China is shifting from investment-led growth to a model based on consumption, innovation, and high-value-added technology, aided by government support.
In South Korea, the index Kospi of Seoul is at +0,6%. The central bank It kept the reference rate unchanged and removed from its statement the reference to maintaining a policy of lowering the cost of money, while leaving open the possibility of a possible reduction in financing costs. The stock market'India Mumbai's BSE Sensex index is up 0,4% at 86.055 points, a new all-time high.
Among cryptocurrency, Bitcoin rose 1,5% to $91.509,04, the'ether rose 0,6% to $3.041,78. The crude West Texas Intermediate fell 0,5% to $58,37 a barrel. spot fell 0,2% to $4.154,16 an ounce.
European stock markets saw a break-even opening. At the Milan Stock Exchange, Leonardo and Fincantieri were all eyes on the market.
European stock markets are expected to open at parity. Euro Stoxx 50 futures are down 0,1%.
Enel – JP Morgan raises its target price to 9,7 euros from 8,3 euros previously.
Classic Ferrari for sale – JP Morgan raised its target price to $457, from €394 previously.
Intesa SanpaoloCEO Messina said the bank will focus on IT, efficiency, investments, and organic growth. No acquisitions are planned in the banking or insurance sectors, only in asset management.
Leonardo will present the “Michelangelo Dome” today at 17:00 PM, an AI-based, multi-domain system capable of connecting different equipment and platforms to protect countries from aerial threats (similar to Israel’s Iron Dome).
Poste Italiane – The Ministry of Economy and Finance will sell PagoPa to the Istituto Poligrafico e Zecca (51%) and Poste Italiane (49%). According to press reports, the digital payments company is valued at €500 million. Poste Italiane has also placed a 5-year fixed-rate bond worth €750 million (demand €2,4 billion). The issue price is 99,749%, with a 3% coupon and an effective annual yield to maturity of 3,045%.
Stellantis – CATL and Stellantis' battery plant in Spain will create up to 4.000 jobs, according to the joint venture's CEO, Andy Wu. It has not yet been determined how many workers will come from China to build the plant.
General Bank – Kepler Cheuvreux initiates coverage with a Buy price, target price 59 euros.
Fincantieri Poland has chosen Sweden's Saab to supply three submarines for the Orka program (valued at €2,3-2,6 billion). Fincantieri was on the shortlist and was well-positioned after signing the MoU with PGZ in September.
Mfe-Mediaforeurope – HA will acquire 32,9% of the Portuguese media group Impresa from the Balsemao family for €17,3 million, according to a statement. Zest has completed its capital increase.
