Good first. The markets welcomed without fear the outcome of the Italian vote. The index FtseMib (+0,67%) led the stocks in a day of great uncertainty, marked by the crisis of the pound and by the red end of Wall Street. Yesterday evening the Dow Jones also entered the “Bear Market”: the index has lost more than 20% since the beginning of the year. According to a survey by Bloomberg, "hatred" for investing in stocks is at its highest since 2009, at the time of Lehman Brothers. Those who had the courage to invest at the time can now see a gain of 500 percent. But there is a difference: then rates fell towards zero, today the Fed leads the fight against inflation with hikes.
Under pressure from the BTPs, Standard & Poor's is not afraid
The climate of the bond markets was much more agitated. Also the BTP, traded in the evening at a yield of 4,5% (the highest since 2013), paid a heavy toll on the tensions: the spread rose to 237, despite the parallel increase in the Bund. But the markets don't seem concerned. “We do not see financial risks associated with the formation of a new government – he writes Standard & Poor's – We think that the executive is preparing to present a budget law in line with the objectives already envisaged”. But the room for manoeuvre, adds the agency, will be very modest: the economy will stagnate in 2023 (-0,1%) and then record a weak recovery (+1,4%) in 2024.
The change of course of Italian politics thus fits into a very fragile situation, marked by thedollar surge which is crushing other currencies, starting with GBP, down sharply after the decisions of the government which voted on Friday support for families and businesses as well as substantial tax cuts for the richest: in short, the risk lives in London, not Rome.
Positive futures in Europe and on the Nasdaq
This morning, the markets are calm after the storm. The dollar subsides, commodities rebound and Wall Street futures are up. The Eurostoxx also anticipates an upward start: +0,5%.
Markets were expecting the Bank of England to intervene after the pound's collapse, but the Bank has announced it won't move until November. Gloomy climate also in Germany: the Ifo index, which indicates business confidence, fell more than expected in September, to 84,3 points.
Lagarde raises the alarm, the Bundesbank supports her
The economic outlook is gloomier and further rate hikes are expected to stem inflation, the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, in audition to the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament.
For the president of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, Frankfurt needs to continue to hike rates aggressively as the risk of inflation remaining stuck above the 2% target is high.
Wall street in the red, the Fed insists. A clearer for the dollar
Red day for Wall Street: S&P 500 -1%, Nasdaq -0,6%, Dow -1,1%.
The yield of Treasury Notes at ten years it reached its highest level since 2010, at 3,93%, and this morning it reached 3,86%. Biennial at 4,30%, – 5 basis points.
From the statements released in the last few hours by some members of the board of the Central Bank of the United States, there are no signs of departure from the line of extreme rigor on inflation. In her speech yesterday at an event held at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, Loretta Mester, said that in this context it is better to abandon prudence and act aggressively, so as to prevent the worst.
First day off of dollar, after five consecutive hikes. "US inflation, at its 40-year high, has probably peaked or near it," said Boston Fed chair Susan Collins. “I think it's very likely that inflation is near its peak and maybe already past it,” Collins said after speaking to a local chamber of commerce.
Asia contrasted, but analysts like it. Run Vietnam
Contrasted picture in the Asia Pacific area. Tokyo (+0,7%) and Mumbai are up, the Korean Kospi is down (-0,6%), the Chinese price lists have not moved much.
Looking for positive signals around the planet, the managers rediscover the China. Tribeca Investment Partners recommends focusing on Beijing in view of the easing of anti-Covid measures: the abundant monetary and fiscal stimulus launched in recent months will trigger an important recovery in activity throughout the area. Asian equities should fare better than Europe and the US.
For now, the signs are not comforting. There World Bank it cut China's growth estimates. Chinese GDP is expected to grow by 2,8% this year, less than the 8,1% in 2021 and the 4-5% estimated in April. For Beijing, this is a major setback in an Asian economy that is improving. Excluding China, the region is in fact expected to grow by 5,3% this year, up from +2,6% in 2021. It is the first time since the 90s that Beijing has grown less than the rest of Asia, especially Vietnam , up 7,2%.
The raw materials lose hits. The WTI oil, down 2,6% yesterday, this morning it is close to its lowest level since the beginning of the year, at 77 dollars a barrel, +0,5%.
Spotlight on Unicredit in Piazza Affari, Nexi raises its goals
JP Morgan has lifted the judgment on Unicredit to Overweight, target price at 15 euros.
As of September 23, since the start of the program on July 4, Intesa Sanpaolo purchased a total of 786.491.028 shares, equal to approximately 3,94% of the share capital before cancellation, at an average purchase price per share of €1,7235, for a total value of €1,355 billion.
Mps Bank: yesterday the shares failed to price on the first day of the reverse stock split in the ratio of 1 to 100. From today, orders without price limit will not be allowed.
Terna: Citigroup lowers its target price to 5,6 euros.
Snam: Citigroup raises rating to Neutral.
nexi it aims for average annual revenue growth of 9% between 2021 and 2025, slightly better than analysts' expectations. Ebitda should increase by an average of 9% per year, normalized earnings per share by 20%, a little better than expected. The targets of the plan were announced this morning and will be detailed later in the day.
