Less than 12 hours from Fed verdict on interest rates, the forecasts of the big names in finance are divided: Goldman Sachs claims that the Fed will not touch the cost of borrowing, JP Morgan is lining up for an increase of a quarter point. But one thing seems certain: the authorities are determined to shut down the banking crisis in the shortest possible time. Whatever the cost, US Treasury Minister Janet Yellen hinted: the government is ready to provide additional guarantees on deposits if the banking crisis worsens.
• Markets obviously welcomed these reassurances. The rally, which began yesterday in Europe and continued on Wall Street, infected i Asian price lists: the Japanese Nikkei 225 rises by more than +2%, supported by the main financial stocks.
• The indices with a high technological content: Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index is up 2,1%, while South Korea's KOSPI and Taiwan Stock Exchange Index are up 0,9% and 1,3% respectively.
European stocks expected to open higher
• The positive streak is destined to continue in the opening: i futures on European stock exchanges are set for a bullish start.
• Yesterday, European stocks recovered the effects of the Swiss crisis. The Stoxx index of European banks (148,23) rose by +4,5%, after the UBS-Credit Suisse operation Milan led the continental rises with a gain of 2,53%, recovering 26.554 basis points.
Enria: hierarchy will be respected in EU bailouts
• Andrea Enria, head of Banking Supervision at the ECB, reiterated the need for a clear "hierarchy" in the event of intervention in a crisis: in the Eurozone it cannot happen that bondholders find themselves paying a higher price than shareholders as is took place in Zurich.
• The Swiss government has decided to suspend the bonuses foreseen for Crédit Suisse executives amounting to 360 million francs. Meanwhile UBS is moving to dissolve the agreements between Credit Suisse First Boston and American counterparts, such as broker Michael Klein.
US regional banks recover
• On Wall Street, the intervention of the authorities put First Republic +30% and the other regional banks back on track. The S&P500 index gained 1,3%, closing just above the 4.000 mark.
"Only 49 days have passed since the last Fed meeting - a trader confided to Bloomberg - but I seem to have aged by at least three years". From the perspective of a rate hike of more than 5%, it fell to 3,6% and then rebounded to more than 4% yesterday.
• Markets are currently pricing in a greater than 80% probability that the central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points.
Btp yield rebounds over 4%, bund to 2,29%
• Bond market this morning in the adjustment phase. The 3,55-year Treasury Notes restarted from 2,29% this morning. 4,10-year Bund at XNUMX%. XNUMX-year BTP at XNUMX%.
• It's not just the Fed. Three members of the board are speaking today: the president Lagarde, the chief economist Lane and the adviser Panetta, who will take part in the event “The ECB and its Watchers” in Frankfurt.
Gold still up 7% YTD
Still weak the Petroleum: Brent at 75 dollars a barrel. The API estimates an increase in US inventories of 3,3 million barrels against the decrease of 1,6 million indicated by the estimates collected by Reuters.
Il European gas it gained 8% ending up at 42,40 euro/mWh, still remaining below the discriminating threshold of 50 euro. Gold little moved at 1.40 dollars an ounce waiting for the Fed: +7% since the beginning of the year.
Unicredit, the buy back cannot be touched. Tim, redundancy deal
Unicredit under the spotlight. Andrea Enria, chairman of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, said that the hypothesis of a ceiling on distribution for the sector is not on the table.
Tim. An agreement was reached with the unions on a new plan for the release of approximately 2.000 units.
Snam has already assigned over 86% of the offered capacity of the Piombino terminal.
