The specter of Greece's default returns to the markets and the European stock exchanges, after a cautious start, accelerate downwards and then recover slightly: the Ftse Mib drops by 0,40%, the Cac by 0,89%, the Dax by 0,84 .100%, the Ftse 0,75 XNUMX%.
A selective default by Greece "is not excluded", but "everything must be done to avoid it", said the Luxembourg premier and president of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker, entering the summit of eurozone leaders. Germany and France, according to reports in the Dutch press, have agreed on a plan which provides for a selective default by Greece. Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager would have said it in Parliament: "The request to avoid the default, even selective, of Athens, has been removed, and now we can move forward on the path that provides for the intervention of the banks in the bailout ”, said the minister.
We are at a crucial point for the euro, which is back under pressure, falling below 1,42 dollars to 1,4155. There are still many difficulties that need to be overcome before we can talk about a real agreement. Despite the reassurances of Angela Merkel (“I think we can decide on a new aid program for Greece that will allow us to tackle the root problems”, she said) and of the president of the EU Commission Josè Manuel Durao Barroso (“I am sure we will find a good solution,” he said), operators fear that today's agreement may be only a facade. The role of the banks is still on the table: Franco-German sources have ruled out an ad hoc tax on the sector and for Juncker an agreement on a possible tax to be applied to banks to make them pay part of the new Greek bailout "is very unlikely".
The markets await decisive responses, as the IMF underlined, among other things: "Despite the adjustment efforts and the support of the member states of the Eurozone and the European Central Bank, the markets are still not convinced that a sustainable solution is imminent" .
The discussion that is going on across the Atlantic on the debt of the United States does not help the stability of the markets. Yesterday the members of the Republican party in the House opposed the plan promoted by the President of the United States, Barack Obama for the reduction of the US federal debt (savings of 3.700 billion dollars over 10 years). This plan could help break the deadlock in negotiations on raising the federal debt ceiling.
BUSINESS PLACE BACK UNDER PRESSURE
In Piazza Affari the banks, which at the start had stood out in an uncertain list, took a rapid step back together with the worsening mood on the front of the resolution of the Greek debt. After a short initial sprint, Unicredit ends up among the stocks with the greatest falls in the Ftse Mib: it drops 2,55%. Intesa Sanpaolo also did badly with a decline of 1,15%, Banco Popolare dropped by 1,75%, Bpm which recently presented its three-year plan, with a decline of 1,78%, Ubi by 1,77% and Bmps of 0,69%. The Sienese institute communicated yesterday that the paid option capital increase was successfully concluded, without the intervention of the guarantee consortium. Strong volatility also for Fondiaria Sai which, after jumping by 3,23%, accelerated downwards and fell by 2,2%. Yesterday Fitch removed the “watch negative” rating from both FonSai and Milano Assicurazioni in the light of the positive conclusion of the capital increase. However, the negative outlook remains in the wake of the difficulties associated with the implementation of the business plan and the increased volatility on the markets.
The board of directors of the insurance group is meeting today to give Isvap the first answers on the corporate governance issues subject to the inspection in recent months and is said to be starting to introduce a reorganization of the corporate control functions separating them from the management of the company. Meanwhile, the honorary president of Fonsai Salvatore Ligresti did not appear at the prosecutor's office in Milan to answer questions from prosecutor Luigi Orsi following the notification to appear in recent days. The accusation is that of having hindered the activity of Consob by showing reticence in reporting the content of some meetings with the Breton financier Vincent Bollorè, with Alberto Nagel, CEO of Mediobanca and with the former CEO of Unicredit Alessandro Profumo, in the context of the failed negotiation for the entry of the French Groupama in the capital of Premafin.
Under pressure, Fiat dropped 2,07% despite the rumors of Corriere della Sera that the Lingotto would be tightening on the new landing in Russia expected for the end of the summer with an agreement with a local partner: an SUV of the segment will come out of the new Russian plant C and D with the Jeep brand. The decline for Fiat Industrial was more contained, slipping by 0,23%. Stm also lost share (-1,42%) after disappointing second quarter results released overnight by the subsidiary ST-Ericsson.
Lottomatica (+2,13%) and Diasorin (+1,48%) resist. The betting firm benefits from Bank of America-Merrill Lynch's improved buy-from-neutral recommendation. Also for Diasorin the purchases are supported by the opinion of the analysts: Morgan Stanley has started the hedge with an overweight recommendation and a target price of 41,50 euros. Ansaldo Sts (+0,87%) and Telecom Italia (+0,84%) are also in positive territory.
