The situation is serious, but there is no shortage clear signs from both Moscow and Kiev. And the German chancellor Olav Scholz let it be known that "the question of Ukraine's entry into NATO is not on the agenda". It seems difficult, given the premises, to imagine that war is imminent. Certain, on the energy front, tension is still at its highest: the risk of a fire, intentional or accidental, remains high. But the markets, while ready to change their minds, have reduced their fear of a sudden attack. And they return to divide on theinflation: almost non-existent in Asia, very dangerous in the USA, closely connected to energy in the Old Continent. Three different situations that lend themselves to different strategies.
China's stock exchanges, galvanized by the successes of the organization of the Olympics, rose after the injection of liquidity (100 billion yuan) by the Central Bank. The CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchanges gains 1%. The new aid comes after the sharp increase in loans recorded in China in January: the record level of loans to households and businesses reached last month was in turn favored by the PBOC's decision to cut borrowing costs.
Slows Hong Kong (-1,3%), hit by a new wave of infections. Same result for the Kospi's Alone (-1,3%). Down too Singapore (-0,3%). the bag ofIndia it opened up 0,3%. GDP improves but not too much Japan: +5,4% in the quarter, +1,7% in 2021. The Nikkei loses 0,7%, the yen gains 0,2%.
The futures of Wall Street after a mixed session: Dow Jones -0,49%, S&P 500 -0,38%. In perfect parity the Nasdaq. The landslide of pharma stocks involved in anti-Covid vaccines was the brake on the technological list. Slows Pfizer (-1,9%), they collapse Modern (-11,8%) And novavax (-11,4%9, which just yesterday obtained the authorization of the vaccine in Switzerland. Salt Tesla (+1,8%): in January it produced 60 cars in China.
Il Treasury Notes ten-year bonds that yesterday went beyond the psychological threshold of 2% traded at 1,97%. News of the closure of the US embassy in Kiev helped push thegold on the highs of the last eight months at 1.880 dollars an ounce. Euro slightly appreciated to 1,131. Petroleum WTI down 0,8% to $94,7 a barrel. Texas crude finished up 2,5% yesterday. The gas in Europe closed yesterday up 5%.
A wave of panic in Europe, cleared up in the evening
In the evening a rose from Moscow stops the winds of war of Valentine's Day. The Russian Foreign Minister, the experienced Sergej Lavrov, puts it on the plate of the crisis, who strikes up a curtain with Vladimir Putin on Moscow TV: "Sergej - asked the tsar without resorting to the local Mara Venier - there is a possibility of reaching an agreement with our partners?”. "President - replied the foreign policy veteran - there is always a possibility". Hence the willingness to listen to "serious counter-proposals" which the markets are clinging to in order to avoid a disaster both for Russia, one step away from default, and for the West, heading towards recession.
The gas pipeline at the heart of Scholz's mission
Spotlight today on the mission of German Chancellor Olav Scholz, probably focused on the energy issue. Beyond the tug-of-war over Ukraine's possible NATO membership, the conflict concerns natural gas. The United States is pressing for the North Stream gas pipeline not to start now or ever to avoid a Berlin/Moscow axis to the detriment of Poland and the Baltic countries. But the alternative to Russian gas does not exist or is very expensive, despite the abundance of US raw materials distributed by sea, in search of an outlet market.
Lagarde holds back again on rates
The emergency separates the two sides of the Atlantic. Europe, directly interested in the context of the conflict, is slowing down the rise in interest rates. Any change in the ECB's monetary policy will be gradual, chair Christine Lagarde said, in hopes of calming market expectations which now expect two rate hikes this year. Lagarde said inflation risks tend to rise, but the ECB aims to maintain some flexibility and monetary policy decisions in March will depend on available data. “Any adjustment to our monetary policy will be gradual,” Lagarde reiterated during a plenary session of the European Parliament in Strasbourg.
Btp close to 2%, only the spread
After recovering ground in the wake of risk aversion caused by the Ukrainian crisis, just before the closure, the BTP reverses course and goes negative. The Italian ten-year rate saw a minimum of 1,89% and a maximum of 1,97%. The 0,19-year Bund yield also fell to a low of 170%, its lowest level in a week. As a result, the spread rose to XNUMX points.
Piazza Affari -2,04%, Europe loses 200 billion
At the end of a very high-voltage session, Piazza Affari dropped 2,04% and fell back to 26.415 points, with almost all the blue chips in red, after losing almost 4% during the session.
Similar results in the rest of Europe: Madrid -2,53%; Paris -2,27%; Frankfurt -2,03%; Amsterdam -1,8%; London -1,72%. At the end of the day, the loss in terms of capitalization is just over 200 billion.
Bank stocks, airlines and cars weigh above all on continental lists. Instead, the damages are limited or the stocks linked to energy appreciate.
Down Moscow, roll the ruble
Moscow (Moex -1,84%) is in the red, after the losses of the last eighth and the Russian currency depreciates, which has reached over 88 rubles per euro, before recovering.
Raw materials are on the rise, from gas to oil, passing through wheat, given the large amount of imports from Russia and Ukraine.
Among other stocks, Clariant slips 16% to the bottom of the Stoxx 600, after the Swiss group delayed the release of its 2021 results due to an investigation into accounting problems.
Banks under fire: Bper conquers Carige, Unipol goes up
In the heart of the storm, the behavior of the banking sector stands out, light of the market until Friday, yesterday under fire. In the evening, Bper and the Italian deposit protection fund reached an agreement on the sale of Banca Carige (+2,28%) to Bper (-3,84%). Following the agreement, the fund will strengthen the Ligurian institute's coffers with 530 million. Then there will be a residual takeover bid at 0,80 euro.
In a very negative market context, Unipol stands out (+0,2%), the reference shareholder of the Modenese bank. The company cashed in on rising ratings from Kepler and Equita. The dividend, at current values, yields 6%.
Unicredit-Bpm, the market still believes in it
Always in the spotlight Unicredit (-4,6%), weighed down by the strong exposure to the Russian market. Conversely Banco Bpm, under the spotlight for speculation on a possible offer by Gae Aulenti's bank, detaches itself from the general trend of the sector and recovers ground, limiting the loss to 0,65%. Analysts continue to positively evaluate a possible deal that would have a good industrial and strategic basis, a prospect that continues to support the stock of the institute led by Giuseppe Castagna.
Banca Generali down by about 2% after announcing the strategic plan to 2024 which sees an average annual growth in recurring net profit of 10-15% and a cumulative dividend per share of 7,5-8,5 euros.
US sales hold back Cnh, Interpump in the red
Industrials are down sharply: Cnh Industrial is down (-4,2%): the target price was cut to 17 from 18 dollars by Akros. The stock is paying for the slowdown in sales of agricultural machinery in the USA.
Stellantis drops 3%. Interpump also fell (-4,3%), despite the increase in consolidated net profit of 23,5%.
Only Snam goes up, Citi promotes Italgas
Risk aversion and the search for safer havens today directed the few purchases of more defensive stocks, such as Snam (+0,83%), on which Citigroup has raised the rating to neutral. Upgrade to neutral again by Citi on Italgas (-0,88%), while Terna's recommendation (-0,33%) was revised to buy.
Fireworks on Gas Plus, Opa air on Be
Outside the FTSE Mib flies Gas Plus, in a volatility auction after a leap of 25,34%. Runs Be (+25%) after the agreement between the shareholders for the sale of 43,2% of the company to Engineering, with the launch of a mandatory takeover bid at 3,45 euros.
Tesmec falls (-10%) after announcing that it has revised the estimate for the 2021 preliminaries downwards also due to the increase in the costs of electricity and raw materials.
