The collapse of Facebook in New York and the slight change of tone by the president of the ECB Christine Lagarde, together with the crisis in Ukraine, send the stock markets into the red and drive up the yields of government bonds. The closure is down for the European lists led, in this downward path, by Amsterdam -2,19. The losses are substantial a Frankfurt -1,63% Paris -1,54% and Milano -1,09%; are less marked a Madrid -0,22% and London -0,61%. The weak start of Wall Street, committed to digesting some important quarterly earnings, contributes to risk aversion. In particular, Meta Platforms (Facebook) dropped almost 25% after the announcement of a reduction in profit estimates and the first drop in daily users in 18 years of life, in the fourth quarter of 2021. The collapse weighs on the Nasdaq, which over 2%.
Raw materials moved little, while the euro ran, gaining more than 1% against the dollar and bringing the exchange rate to around 1,142.
The Italian secondary closed in the red: the 10-year Bund rate rose to +0,11%, but the increase in the BTP of the same duration was stronger, +1,56%, for one spread by 145 basis points (+6,27%).
On a day full of news, the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella deserves a mention who, in message to the nation after the oath in the Montecitorio hall, he thanked and wished the Draghi government good work.
The banks are not enough to save Piazza Affari
The Ftse Mib retreats to 27.088 basis points despite the purchases of bank stocks, which are the main barometer of the list. They are confirmed on shields Unicredit +2,31%; Bpm bank +1,74%; Bper + 1,96% Understanding +1,15%. Outside the credit perimeter, only two blue chips are up slightly: Post +0,08% and Telecom + 0,21%.
Profit taking crashes Amplifon, -6,09%, after a few sessions in which the stock appreciated.
The black jersey is Saipem, -6,28%, which can't stop the bleeding after last Monday's profit warning that sent shares tumbling 30% to their lowest since 1992. Broker Bestinver believes the company wants to reach an agreement in principle with Eni (-0,87%) and CDP and with the lending banks before February 23 when the ok to the preliminary results for 2021 is expected.
The sitting budget is heavy for Interpump -4,3%; stm -4,07%; nexi -3,98%.
Ferrari it dropped 3,71%, in the aftermath of a see-saw session in the light of accounts and forecasts.
Generali limits the losses to 0,53%, while the weapons between the factions in the field are sharpened for the government of the company. Yesterday the company decided to ask Ivass if the 16,30% share held overall by the Caltagirone Group, Delfin and Fondazione Crt is subject to authorization based on the rules on the joint acquisition of qualified shareholdings exceeding 10%.
Lagarde: The situation has changed
The ECB contributed to stirring the waters which, in today's meeting, left its monetary policy unchanged, but hinted at a possible change of perspective. In the press conference In fact, Christine Lagarde appeared less dovish than usual. “The situation has clearly changed – you said – and as indicated in the initial statement, the risks for inflation, especially in the short term, are now oriented towards the upside”. According to the head of the European central bank, this is a positive factor because we are approaching the medium-term inflation target. The ECB will therefore make the necessary assessments on the monetary policy path in March when the new macroeconomic projections will be available.
The central bank has long said that inflation will soon ease without its intervention and will in fact fall below its 2% target by the end of the year, so withdrawing support now would be counterproductive.
“But financial investors and a number of policy makers have begun to question this narrative,” he argues Reuters – especially since the ECB has consistently underestimated the current peak, forcing it to repeatedly revise its forecasts.
Markets are therefore already pricing in 28 basis points of rate hikes this year, with the first move expected in July. Lagarde's admission that short-term inflation is on the upside now lends footing to this view.
Finally, without explicitly referring to the tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine, Lagarde said that "geopolitical clouds hang over Europe" which could affect growth prospects.
Much more decisive was the action of Bank of England which, in line with expectations, raised interest rates to 0,5%.
The economy in Italy is showing signs of fatigue
As inflation ramps up and central banks are forced to adjust their policies, Italy's economy is showing some signs of fatigue.
The PMI services index, collected by IHS Markit through interviews with purchasing managers, fell to 48.5 in January from 53.0 in December, showing the first contraction since last April. The composite PMI, which also includes manufacturing, fell sharply to 50,1 points: just above the threshold (50 points) that separates the contraction from the economic expansion. Conversely, in Germany the services PMI rebounds to 52,2 and the composite to 53,8, a four-month high. France holds back with Omicron: 53,1 points for services. Overall, the Eurozone services PMI dropped to 51,1 points and the composite to 52,3.
Furthermore, in Italy, the Parliamentary Budget Office (UPB) lowers the growth estimate for 2022 to 3,9%, compared to the 4,7% officially indicated in September by the government. After a very weak first quarter due to the pandemic resurgence, growth should strengthen from the spring, taking advantage of the progressive improvement in health conditions.
