It will be worth it in the coming weeks to maintain stock market investments, but in the knowledge that some fixes will come, above all because between now and mid-October the political framework in the United States will tend to heat up, with “a huge gridlock of fiscal packages, debt ceiling and spectra of technical default”. That's what he says Alessandro Fugnoli, Kairos' strategist, in the latest episode of his monthly column "The red and the black".
For the more cautious, the analyst advises lightening the wallet now to buy back later, in moments when the political confrontation in Washington will become more important. On the other hand, investors who are in a position to withstand a correction of around 5%, Fugnoli advises not to worry too much, because the underlying trend of the markets will continue to be positive.
After all, the Kairos economist goes on to explain, the idea has begun to circulate on the markets that – if US inflation stabilizes at around 3% next year – the Federal Reserve could avoid touching interest rates by raising 2 to 3% the target level for price growth.
As it regards instead Europe, we begin to talk about the possibility of correcting the lens of the deficit at 3% envisaged by the Maastricht Treaty (a target which is currently suspended, together with the rest of the Stability and Growth Pact, at least until the end of 2022).
On the other hand, it is clear to everyone that nothing serious will be decided in Brussels before the formation of a new government in Germany, an operation that should take some time (we are talking about the end of the year), given that - in all probability - a clear majority will not emerge from the elections at the end of September and the parties will be forced to carry on lengthy negotiations.
Moreover, the German appointment is not the only crucial one on the European agenda for the coming months: "immediately afterwards they will take over the French elections – concludes Fugnoli – which will be held in April and which are expected to be very open”.
