We truly live in exceptional times, marked by exceptional events. It is not only the incipit of a large part of the speeches of the powerful at the Cop-26 in Glasgow, but also an almost daily news story. Yesterday the Chinese government invited families to stock up on vegetables because, due to climatic reverses, broccoli, cucumbers and spinach could disappear from the markets and/or cause a price boom. Meanwhile, to demonstrate the rigor of the war on Covid, yesterday the Shanghai authorities closed Disneyland after the discovery of a case of contagion: 30 visitors left only after passing a mandatory test administered in the emergency structures set up at the gates.
MINI-CLRES IN SYDNEY WAITING FOR THE TAPERING
Events apparently unrelated to the dynamics of the financial markets, but which take place in a moment of great uncertainty for the economies threatened by inflation which, this time, depends more on the scarcity of supply than on the exuberance of demand. Or from the breakdowns in the supply chain and in everyday life caused by the contagion that caused five million victims. The result is the embarrassment with which the central banks approach the turnaround on rates: waiting for the Fed, which will pronounce itself tomorrow, the tightening of the Australian central bank was expected this morning. But the Canberra bankers limited themselves to renouncing market interventions to defend low rates and canceling the indication that rates will not rise before 2024. And so, on the eve of the Fed's discounted decisions (reduction of market purchases of 15 billion dollars a month), the market situation fluctuates between the uncertainty of the bond markets and the unbridled rush of the Bull, which still has a lot of energy to spend.
TOKYO BRAKES, SAMSUNG DRAILS THE KOSPI
Contrasted this morning the Asian stock exchanges. Tokyo's Nikkei is down by 0,7% in the final session, the CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists by 1%. Instead, the rebound of techs helps Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0,4%).
The most brilliant Stock Exchange is that of South Korea (+1,2%), very fashionable given the global success of Squid Game and the new records of Samsung (+3%), driven by the boom in semiconductors. Weak Sidney (-0,6%).
FLY TESLA: NOW WORTH $1.200 BILLION
The start of the meeting of Fed members was greeted by a new bullish meeting in the New York Stock Exchange, which broke a new record. The Dow Jones, which has repeatedly exceeded 36 points, closed at 35.913: +0,26%. S&P 500 +0,18%. NASDAQ +0,63%.
The stellar performance of Tesla (+8,6%) once again pushed the index. Harley Davidson is even better (+9,1%): the US/EU agreement on steel has eliminated the risk of tariffs on the iconic American motorcycle.
US QUARTERLY CHARGE THE BULL
The future on the S&P index fell slightly this morning. But yesterday was the twelfth positive session in three weeks. The good quarterly results, according to analysts, allow us to forecast an average growth of 5% between now and the end of the year.
The 1,55-year Treasury Note trades at 1,160%. Euro dollar unchanged at 1%. Bitcoin up 84% after three consecutive days of declines. WTI oil at 0,1 dollars a barrel, +XNUMX% two days after the OPEC+ summit.
EUROSTOXX FUTURES HOLDING DOWN
This morning the future of the Frankfurt Dax index is down by 0,1%, future of the EuroStoxx -0,2%. Yesterday was a turbulent day for Eurozone bonds, starting with BTPs.
CENTRAL BANKS UNDER SIEGE, LAGARDE NOT CONVINCING
“Investors are testing the will of central banks,” writes Andrea Iannelli, head of fixed income for giant Fidelity. "One after the other - increases the dose George Saravelos, head of currency at Deutsche Bank - the intentions announced by the central banks are contested and unmasked by the market". Under fire, on the eve of the start of the Fed meeting, is the argument that inflation is temporary. "It seems to relive - adds the strategist - the attacks on the monetary system before the end of the Bretton Woods agreement". An exaggeration, of course, but the embarrassment of Christine Lagarde's statements at the end of the ECB directorate and the caution of Jay Powell have favored the nervousness of the markets which are calling for more severe moves than simple tapering as, moreover, they are about to do the Bank of England and Australia. The effect was not long in coming even in the Eurozone: the group of bonds with a negative sign fell in October to its lowest level for over a year, as investors are betting on an increase in interest rates in Euroland as early as next year .
THE SPREAD RISES TO 135. THE BTP 10 AT 1,243%
The spread soars for the third day in a row: 135 basis points, the highest since July 2020. The ten-year yield jumps to 1,243%, against -0,14% for the German bond with the same duration.
The end of the Pepp program in March penalizes the Italian card. Today the ECB will update the map of purchases made in October.
PIAZZA AFFARI CLOSES ABOVE 27 THOUSAND, +22,5% FROM JANUARY
On the other hand, the rally of the Italian stock market continues, one of the brightest in the Eurozone. The FtseMib (+1,27%, 27.215) closes above the 27 mark for the first time since 2008.
October has just closed with an increase of 4,60%. From the beginning of the year +22,50%, against +20,40% of the EuroStoxx 50 index.
ISTAT CONFIRMS RECOVERY, RECORD SERVICES
Istat yesterday published the preliminary data on gross domestic product for the third quarter of 2021, which are better than consensus expectations: +3,8% year on year (consensus +3.0%) and +2,6% quarter on quarter ( Consent +2,0%).
Both domestic demand (gross of inventories) and foreign demand made a positive contribution to the change in GDP.
The result benefited, for the second consecutive quarter, from a strong recovery in the services sector, the most penalized by the crisis, and from growth in industry.
With the data for the third quarter, the change acquired for the whole of 2021 goes to +6,1% (it was +4.8% at the end of the second quarter).
ALSO THE STOXX 600 AT THE TOP. THE STEEL RUNS
At the top are the Ibex 35 of Madrid (+1,38%) and the Cac 40 of Paris (+1,06%), followed by the Dax of Frankfurt (+0,79%) and the Ftse 100 of London ( +0,74%). The Aex of Amsterdam is lagging behind (+0,11%).
Pan-European STOXX 600 index gains 0,72% and surpasses previous all-time highs set in mid-August
Steel stocks rise: Arcelor Mittal +1,9%, Thyssenkrupp and the steel producer Salzgitter also appreciate after the United States and the European Union have recently decided to end the dispute on duties for steel and aluminum.
AXA TO FINANCE TRIANGLE OWER (180 METERS) IN PARIS
In Paris Unibail-Rodamco rises (+1,2%): after years of debates the construction of the Triangle Tower has been approved, a giant (180 metres, 42 floors) which will dominate the 15th arrondissement. Axa joined the project.
RYANAIR WILL WITHDRAW THE LISTING IN LONDON
Ryanair is considering withdrawing from the London listing. For a year now, citizens of the United Kingdom have not been able to buy the securities of the company which, fearing losing its license as a European company, banned British purchases after Brexit. The company will remain listed in Dublin and New York.
IN MILAN ENI FLAMES, PUSHED BY GUIDANCE
It was Eni's day (+2.76%), which jumped to the levels of February 2020, before the outbreak of the pandemic, under the boost of results for the quarter and the guidance for 2021, well above market expectations. The recovery of oil in view of the OPEC + meeting on Thursday also acted as the tarnish. "The brokers are adjusting the target prices also in view of the capital market day of the group on the IPO of the business that integrates retail gas & power and renewables on November 22nd", underlines a trader. Equita confirms the "Buy" recommendation by raising the target price by 11% to 15 euros. Among the oil services, Tenaris appreciates by 2,7% and Saipem raises its head again (+1,56%).
STM AND LUXURY ADVANCE. JEFFERIES PROMOTES CUCINELLI
Stm advances (+1%) on the wave of the Nasdaq race despite the relegation to neutral from buy by Citigroup, which however raised the target price to 45 euros from 41.
Money also on the luxury sector, starting with Moncler, which rises by 2,87%. In the light of Brunello Cucinelli (+3,05% at 54 euros): Jefferies raised its target price from 45 to 50 euros, confirming the hold recommendation.
FROM FERRARIA GENERALI OIOGGIA OF ANNUAL RECORDS
Today, among the blue chips, Azimut, Banca Generali, Ferrari, Interpump. Atlantia and Generali have reached new highs for the year.
In contrast, Nexi hit its lowest since April. Among the industrialists to note Stellantis, +1,16% after the launch of the limited edition Mopar '22 Dodge Durango.
BANKS UP, UNIPOL LOOKS AT MPS
Buying the banking sector: the increases on the yields of government bonds with the spread above are starting to be felt. Banco Bpm did well (+0,7%), Bper sold again (-0,66%). On the eve of the board of directors Intesa Sanpaolo is advancing (+1,5%), Unicredit is down (-0,8%).
Under the spotlight Unipol +1%, possible white knight for Mps +1%.
EVEN JUVENTUS SCORE A GOAL, PIAGGIO SUFFERS
Runs Mediaset (+3,2%). Juventus rebounds (+2,2%), despite the embarrassing performance in the league. AS Roma is down (-0,4%).
More sales on Piaggio (-0,9%) after weaker guidance than estimates, according to Equita. Very robust Ovs (+4,2%) after the positive response of the market to the bond linked to sustainability. The excellent results of Biesse (+3,52%) should be noted. On the former Aim, renamed Euronext Growth Milan runs Defense Tech (+9,94%), Cyber Security freshman. Last Friday, at its debut, it had scored +32,3%.
