New session with high volatility on global stock markets, led by sales on banks and energy stocks. The Ftse Mib closes the drop of 3,21% while the Btp-Bund spread, after having broken through 150 basis points, closes at 145. Red also for the other European stock exchanges: Paris -1,69%, London -1%, Frankfurt -1,11%. Athens loses 2,89% after a 5% drop during the day.
Investors are back to buying safe-haven assets such as the German 5,4-year, gold and the yen. The Nikkei closed down 1,95% this morning while the rest of major Asian stocks, such as Shanghai and Hong Kong, are closed for the Chinese New Year. Wti oil is unchanged while Brent loses 0,46%. Gold is still up XNUMX%.
NEGATIVE RATES FOR 6 THOUSAND BILLION DOLLARS
The rush of safe-haven assets in recent days has marked another record: for the first time in history, the yield on Japanese ten-year government bonds has fallen into negative territory. The result is that the stock of global debt that currently has a negative yield rises to $6 trillion.
Investors are weighed down by fears about the bail in, with the alarm that also overwhelmed Deutsche Bank which had to reassure its ability to repay subordinated loans, but also the return of uncertainty linked to the Fed's moves. The testimony is expected tomorrow by Janet Yellen to the US Congress.
Meanwhile in Europe Jens Weidmann, head of the German Bundesbank, has warned that the drop in oil prices will significantly reduce inflation estimates for 2016.
The euro-dollar exchange rate rose by 1,06% to 1,1312. The strong volatility also affects the US stock markets with the Dow Jones which, having filed the steps in positive territory, yields 0,49% and the S&P500 0,45%. On the macroeconomic front, US wholesale inventories did better than expected with a decline of 0,1% in December.
GHIZZONI, MARKET WAITING FOR STRONG SIGNALS
In Italy all the main banks end up on the FTse Mib: Ubi Banca -8,87%, Banco Popolare -8,63%, Bpm -8,35%, Unicredit -7,91% and Intesa Sanpaolo -6,21% . This is a busy week for the whole sector: there is anticipation for the decree on bad banks, Bcc and debt collection, the engines of M&A are heating up and the market is expecting possible news on the front of the Banco Popolare-Bpm marriage for the end of the week and several large groups are announcing their 2015 results.
Among these also Unicredit, which recorded profits of 1,7 billion euros and a proposed dividend scrip of 12 euro cents per share. The CEO Federico Ghizzoni, during the presentation of the results, confirmed his intention to return to the cash dividend next year. For Ghizzoni, the sell-off on the markets will not stop in the short term. “I think it won't stop being realistic in the short term – he commented during the press conference on the results – there is no such news as to reverse the negative trend. It is a market looking for reasons to reverse course, until there are strong signals from central banks or the government, the market will not reverse the current trend. However, the enormous liquidity that is created by selling equity does not re-enter the circulation, it is parked, in my opinion it will return to equity when the market has the perception that a solid basis has been reached from which to start again”.
Some stocks went against the trend on the Ftse Mib: Telecom Italia +3,57% awaiting the plan, Campari +1,56%, Mediaset +1,36% and Luxottica -1%. After the turmoil related to the reorganization of the top management, the eyewear group's stock rebounds in the wake of the evaluations of Jefferies analysts who improved the recommendation to hold from sell.
