“The worst is yet to come” warns the International Monetary Fund reviewing down forecasts for economic growth world (but Italy is doing better than expected in 2022) and even today the markets are unable to drive away risk aversion. Even Covid, which seemed to have almost disappeared from the radar, is making headlines again for the growth of infections in Europe and for the blockades it causes in China. The war, on the other hand, is intensifying and there is no end in sight, although some speak of feeble hopes of a Biden-Putin meeting which perhaps has curbed the hemorrhage of sales in the last hours of continental exchanges.
Square Business it loses 0,87% and falls to 20.730 basis points and does a little worse Madrid -0,85% Amsterdam -0,76% Frankfurt -0,44% Paris -0,13%. The black jersey goes to London -1,02%, enveloped in a crisis that forced the Bank of England to expand its emergency intervention again to calm the markets.
The mining, oil and gas sectors suffer the most, as i commodity prices they are on the downside given demand concerns amid the pandemic in China. Since the beginning of the year, the STOXX 600 has lost more than 20% due to galloping inflation, the change in strategy of central banks and fears of recession that are increasingly materializing. For this reason, attention is shifting to company results in the quarter, which will be able to indicate the real state of health of the economy. The US earnings season kicks off on Friday, while the Fed minutes and stars and stripes inflation are expected during the week.
The boot was also bad at Wall Street, which could end the fifth consecutive session down, although the Dow Jones is now moving in positive territory thanks to the gains of the pharmaceutical group Amgen (+6% after the promotion of Morgan Stanley to 'overweight' from 'equal weight').
The spread goes up
The session closed in the red for the Italian paper, after confirmations and denials on Germany's openness to common debt in Europe. The spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration, it rises to 237 basis points (+5,59%), mainly due to the increase in the rate of the Italian bond, +4,68%, against +2,3% for the German bond.
According to a Berlin spokesman, quoted by Reuters, the member states of the European Union could use the resources of the "Next Generation" fund to tackle the energy crisis.
On the market for change the euro-dollar it is stable, in the area of 97 cents, while among the raw materials, oil prices are decreasing. Brent loses 2,3% and trades at around 94 dollars a barrel.
IMF cuts 2023 forecasts
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, the cost-of-living crisis and China's slowdown weigh on the world economy. This was reiterated by the International Monetary Fund, in the last one World Economic Outlook, in which forecasts for 2022 are confirmed (global growth +3,2%), but those for 2023 are revised downwards (from 2,9 in July to 2,7%, with a 25% possibility that drop below 2%). Over a third of the global economy will experience a contraction this year or next year, with the three largest economies – the US, the European Union and China – continuing to stall.
Italy e Germany they will likely be the first major countries to fall into recession Next year. The International Monetary Fund has revised upwards its forecasts for Italian GDP in 2022, from 3% three months ago to 3,2%, but in 2023 it will go from +0,7% to -0,2%.
According to the international body, global inflation could peak at the end of this year, but remain overall high for a longer period than expected.
La energy crisison the other hand, especially in Europe, it will not be a transitory shock. Winter 2022 will be tough, but winter 2023 will probably be worse”.
Piazza Affari: banks and utilities are down, pharmaceuticals are lively
On the main index of Business Square banks are weak, while pharmaceutical stocks are showing a certain vivacity driven by rumors in the Wall Street Journal according to which the American group Bio-Rad Laboratories is said to be in talks with Qiagen to evaluate a combination of their respective businesses. According to observers, the succession of M&A operations confirms the strong speculative appeal for the securities of the sector.
On the Ftse Mib it rises like this Recordati +1,33%, also driven by the upgrade of Mediobanca Securities, which raised the valuation of the stock from "neutral" to "outperform". It is appreciated Diasorin +0,39%, as it sinks Amplifon -2,79%. The blue chip queen of the day is Campari +1,69%. Automotive stocks such as Ferrari +1,23% and stellantis +1,12%. Well Prysmian +1,5%. It dates back Moncler + 0,84%.
At the bottom of the list are mostly utilities and banks. It starts from Ivy -3,5% and in the sector also Enel -2,7%.
It is still a letter for the technological ones, stm -3,06%.
Go down Telecom -2,97%, after the confirmation that the terms for the agreement with Cdp, Macquarie and Open Fiber are lengthening.
Eni (-1,2%) follows today's fate of crude oil.
Among the banks the worst is Unicredit -1,67%, but Ps it rebounds, +3,4%, on the day of the board meeting to deal with the issue of the 2,5 billion capital increase. According to two Reuters sources, a race against time is underway to close the guarantee syndicate with the banks and today's board work could continue tomorrow.
