Buying returned to most European lists today, despite the mixed start of Wall Street after losses on the eve due to Jerome Powell's overtures to higher and faster increases in interest rates.
Square Business closes with an increase of 0,54% to 27.911 basis points, together with Frankfurt + 0,49% Madrid + 0,56% Amsterdam +0,24% and London +0,13%, while Paris loses 0,2%.
Markets cautious after yesterday's losses
However, the markets are moving cautiously waiting to understand how the macro data will guide the Fed's choices.
The appetizer of the work report out on Friday. Employment, in February, in the private sector, increased beyond expectations according to the monthly report prepared by ADP, which deals with payroll: 242.000 jobs were created, against expectations for 205.000. This evening the Beige Book, which is the Federal Reserve's report on the economy, will be published, while a little while ago Powell, number one of the US central bank, told the House Finance Committee that "no decision has been taken on raising interest rates March interest […] We are not on a pre-established path, we will be guided by the next data […] Before the next meeting, important data will be released”.
A prudence that in reality does not reassure much, so much so that the yields of treasury bonds in two years they remain over 5%, with an increasingly marked inversion of the interest rate curve which gives rise to fears of a recession.
After yesterday's much more incisive intervention by Powell, the bets on the next increase in US rates have risen to 50 basis points, from the 25 points previously estimated.
Il dollar in today's session it loses its edge slightly, but theeuro changes again below 1,06.
Il Petroleum it is also moving in the red today, with Brent and Wti futures down by about one and a half percentage points.
The ECB is next week and Visco calls for caution
Still on the subject of central banks, today the Canadian institute left rates unchanged at 4,5%, while next week the word will pass to the ECB. Expectations are for a 50 basis point increase, while analysts at Abn Amro have upgraded their forecasts for the full year upwards, as inflation in the eurozone also slows very sluggishly and the economy looks more resilient than expected. The deposit rate estimate is now at 3,75% mid-year, with increments of 50 basis points in March and May, to drop to 25 points in June. The previous peak was seen at 3% in March. A policy change from the ECB is not expected to arrive before the end of the year.
The president Christine Lagarde guarantees that Frankfurt will do anything against inflation, but the Italian governor Ignazio Visco calls for caution. “I don't appreciate statements by my colleagues about future and prolonged rate increases – Visco said in his greeting at the XIV Maeci Conference – I don't know, we don't know enough; for this I can only say, recalling Eugenio Montale, 'what we are not, what we don't want, in this case high and prolonged inflation'.
Declining spreads and Btp Italia boom
In this context, Italian paper withstood the impact of interest rates with considerable confidence.
Today it spread between ten-year Italian and German it fell to 171 basis points (-3,52%), also thanks to yields decreasing to +4,32% and +2,61% respectively.
Meanwhile the BTP Italy at the age of five he had his fill of retail purchases even on the last day of placement with small savers and closed this first three-day game at 8,56 billion euro.
Piazza Affari Inwit in pink jersey
The pink jersey of the main list goes to Inwit +4,07%, followed by stm +3,36%, on a not too brilliant day for European technology companies. Stmicroelectronics was supported by the fact that Moody's confirmed the “Baa2” rating at the investment level on the security and raised the outlook from stable to positive. This choice was supported "by the solid growth in revenues from 2017 onwards, accelerated from 2020".
Banks, which benefit most from rising rates in a context of still expanding economy, are in the green starting from Bper + 2,54% Unicredit + 1,67% Bpm bank +1,39%. Shy Ps + 0,36%.
Among the best blue chips of the session there are Prysmian + 1,8% Diasorin + 2,59% Iveco + 1,35% Amplifon + 1,16% Telecom + 0,96%.
Oil stocks and utilities share the leanest slice of the pie.
The biggest discount is for Tenaris -2,11%, followed by Saipem -1,47%. In red Leonardo -1,15% and Moncler -0,98%.
Out of the main basket it retreats Fincantieri, -4,31%, after the fourth quarter results and the guidance on 2023, published yesterday with the stock market closed, lower than the consensus of analysts.
