The second quarter sees the correction in US IT stocks continue on yet another tweet from Trump criticizing Amazon and rails against the Chinese reactions to the duties, which involve over 100 US products. So the S&P 500 falls for the sixth day, reaching the 200-day average and accumulating a 10% loss from the January record, and gold reacts higher.
The defensive stance that characterized stock markets last month dominates after the worst three months for global stock markets in the last two years. Since February volatility has left the quicksand of unwarranted lows and winds of trade wars, coupled with the Cambridge Analytica affair, influenced the shares, which continue even on the declines to be the only solution in the face of a scenario of low rates and widespread negative yields. Undeniably, the US unemployment figure, expected to hit a 20-year low next Friday, will generate further reflections on portfolio repositioning.
But the trade wars are only the background of an American foreign policy played on the edge of trade as a counterpart to a new cold war strategy that targets China and Russia, which are moving deftly in the Middle East after the consolidated successes obtained in Africa . The month of May will certainly be crucial to see if Trump's intentions will have a positive outcome or not, one year after the announcement of the anti-Iran strategy declaimed in Riyadh last May in front of 55 Islamic countries.
The spirit of that meeting was found again in the recent 54th Security Conference in Munich in the statements of the Saudi Foreign Minister and the Israeli Premier and once again Iran was singled out for its support for the Syrian government of Assad and therefore to the civil war which in Syria has already seen over 500 dead, and against Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
MAY 12: ELECTIONS IN IRAQ AND US DECISION ON NUCLEAR DEAL WITH IRAN
The elections in Iraq represent an electoral appointment which marks the end of the period of conflict against the jihadists of Daesh and we are approaching this important appointment amid the protests of the Kurds, Yazidis and Christians and of the other minority represented by the Sunnis who have requested loudly a postponement to allow the completion of the return phase of the fighters against the caliphate. Tehran's influence on this election is very strong and it will be difficult for the outgoing Premier Abadi to be able to stem an important political affirmation by the Shiite paramilitary forces whose model is that of Hezbollah. Surely the new post-ISIS Iraqi identity does not appear to be a "health walk" for Middle Eastern risk.
And, as if that weren't enough, on the same date the US Administration, strengthened by the new entries of the two hawks John Bolton, the president's new adviser for national security, and Mike Pompeo, the new Secretary of State, will decide on the maintenance of sanctions against the 'Iran by probably and definitively shelving the nuclear deal signed by Obama.
And if the United Arab Emirates, thanks to the South Korean project with US technology, have managed to embark on the nuclear path by submitting to a commitment with the US to avoid the enrichment of uranium and the development of plutonium, now the Saudis also want their nuclear reactors "for peaceful purposes", as reaffirmed during the visit of the Saudi prince regent to the United States, in which an agreement was signed to purchase weapons from the United States for about 700 million US dollars.
Hence the vehement reaction of Iran which will not wait in the Middle East asymmetric war where the decision to support terrorist groups such as Hezbollah and the Syrian and Iraqi Shiite axis, up to arming Hamas to obtain a strengthening of its territorial and war aims , will further insulate the Iraq-Iran axis. Thus Saudi modernist ambitions are seen as a threat to the internal tensions of civilians and young people, who under 30 represent 70% of the Iranian population, and who look to Vision 2030 with growing envy.
Iran's economic health is not only the fundamental problem holding back change, because Komeini's successor, Ali Khamenei, now almost octogenarian, feels the transition to Iran's Supreme Leader and certainly leaves no room for President Rouhani, his second term, to push the accelerator of social openings. And it is on this difficult political transition that Trump probably counts to put pressure on Iran.
MUHAMMAD BIN SALMAN (MBS) AND VISION 2030
Add to this the inexorable reforming action of Prince Muhammed bin Salman who rides the so-called Vision 2030 plan which aims to diversify the Saudi economy, expanding the non-oil industry, making room for greater freedoms for women (from leadership of unaccompanied cars to participate in sporting events), to actively involve them in the world of work. Not to mention the over two billion US dollars which will be concentrated on projects to spread art and culture through the opening of new museums, cinemas and archaeological sites.
All measures brought down from above to gather the consent of even the most conservatives and without forgetting how there remains a censorship and the need on the part of the Mbs himself to act gradually to allow a redistribution of the benefits of a fundamental modernization process to avoid the flight effect that is evident in Iran among the youngest and most talented.
14 -15 MAY: TRANSFER OF THE US EMBASSY TO JERUSALEM AND END OF THE "MARCH" DE RETURN ORGANIZED BY HAMAS
A few days will pass for the US to honor its promise to transfer the US embassy to Jerusalem and for Hamas to complete the long trail of riots organized on the border with Israel that began in conjunction with the Jewish and Catholic Passover with outcomes difficult to assess, if not for a further worsening of the situation of the hostage population in an economically deteriorated situation in ten years, and harshly criticized even by the Fatah party which manages the Palestinian Territories. The definitive passage of the Administration of the Gaza strip to the official government of the PNA scheduled for December is still too far away and even if new presidential elections will follow, it is difficult to think that Iran will stay out of the game.
And the month of May will also be the month of Trump's visit to North Korea, which always has the fight against nuclear proliferation as its object, but not before meeting Putin who is currently engaged in the first trilateral meeting of the year with Iran and Turkey on the Syrian conflict, after that of November in Sochi.
In short, next month will only be the prelude to what can be expected also in view of the turnover of the European institutions which will see the exit of the current High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Vice-President of the European Commission, Federica Mogherini .
Already from the outcome of the summit between the President of the European Commission Juncker, that of the European Council Tusk and President Erdogan at the end of March and with the guarantee of three billion euros to finance the reception of three million Syrian refugees in Turkish territory, it was understood that the EU is unable to make progress and continues to maintain an ambiguous policy of double standards between Russia and Turkey.
It is enough to bear in mind that, in violation of European principles, 92% of Turkish information is under the control of Erdogan and the state of emergency allows a relentless repression of opponents.
Gone are the years of the "double pillar" tactic of the Americans who had two cornerstones in Saudi Arabia and in the government of the Shah Rezha Palevi. Centuries seem to have passed and that delicate balance has been replaced by a heated rivalry for the domination of the Islamic world between a pure Saudi monotheism, steeped in Wahhabism that defends Mecca and Medina, and a Twelver Shiite power that sees in the power of the Iranian Ayatollahs a rivalry and ambition evident over sacred sites and dominance in OPEC. Meanwhile, almost 30 billion euros of contracts with Italy are blocked by this tug of war between the US and Iran which has frozen the activity of international banks that do not want to risk incurring US sanctions.
In May there will be the showdown and for the Middle East the process of modernization and the fight against corruption and extremists of the new young Saudi ruler could be an important element for a new phase of dialogue and real change without exaggeration but gradually and the opportunity to avoid an implosion within the eternal conflict between Shiites and Sunnis, which instead is and remains only the eternal struggle for territorial conquest typical of a geopolitics crowded with too many interests that no longer revolve around oil but to a broader and more consolidated economic power than a new political Islam.
