Le European stock exchanges closed in negative territory at the end of a volatile session, which was intertwined with the new leap of the Petroleum, the indications of the ECB on rates and the surge of US Treasury yieldsThe Ftse Mib closed down 0,13%, while the Dax lost 0,73%; Paris and London also closed in the red (half a percentage point). Weighing on the markets is above all the return of the Brent above $105 a barrel, while the escalation of tensions in Middle East continues to fuel fears about energy supplies and a new surge in inflation. Wall Street is no exception, weighed down by a stronger-than-expected US PPI. And, further complicating the picture, there is Donald Trump with yet another promise: $5.000 to every American adult if Republicans win the House and Senate in midtermA campaign check of approximately $1.300 trillion, while it remains to be seen how he intends to do so.
The ECB raises rates to 2,50%. Lagarde: "Too many factors at play."
As widely expected, the The ECB has increased the cost of money by 25 basis points., bringing the reference rate to 2,5%. More than the decision, already widely discounted by the markets, what dominated the spotlight was the president's message Christine Lagarde, who stressed that the outlook remains “very uncertain,” with upside risks for inflation and downside risks for growth.
Adding to the complexity is the Middle East conflict, which is once again putting pressure on energy prices. The Governing Council, Lagarde explained, remains well-positioned to address the uncertainty surrounding the war. Meanwhile, the ECB has revised its I'm raising my inflation estimates, bringing it to 2,5% in 2027 from the previous 2,3%, while the forecast for core inflation rises to 2,6% from 2,5%.
The tensions are also reflected in the bond marketthat spread between BTPs and Bunds rises towards 89 basis points, while the yield on the Italian ten-year bond reaches 4,36%.
Wall Street falls after producer price inflation data
The new front of attention comes from the United States, where Wall Street travels in negative territory after the personal data on prices at August productionThe PPI rose by 0,4% on a monthly basis and by 5,4% on an annual basis, above the 5,3% expected, reinforcing caution on the Fed's next moves and pushing up the Treasury yieldsThe two-year note rose to 4,52%, while the ten-year note hit 4,92%, its highest since 2023. Traders are also eyeing the $22 billion 30-year Treasury auction, following the lukewarm reception given to the $6 billion bond buyback plan announced by the U.S. Treasury.
Now the focus shifts to the data on consumer prices on Friday, which will be crucial to the outcome of the Fed's meeting on September 16. According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a rate change of at least 25 basis points at the next meeting has risen to 69,8%, from around 64% before the PPI release.
On the index front, the S&P 500 fell 0,41%, the Nasdaq 100 0,73%, the Nasdaq Composite 0,44%, and the Dow Jones 0,43%. Financials and consumer staples were the main sources of losses. Among individual stocks, Apple gains 1,1% after the presentation of the new iPhones, while technology stocks suffer, with Nvidia down 2,52% and Intel of 4,2%, pending the accounts of Oracle infrastructures , tonight with the markets closed.
Lottomatica and Leonardo shine at the Milan Stock Exchange. Moncler and Buzzi fall.
In Milan Lottomatica was the best performer on the Ftse Mib, with a 5,6% increase. The stock also benefited from the agreement with Cirsa and Blackstone and from Berenberg's positive assessment. Also strong Leonardo, up 3,24%, while Inwit gained 2,74%. Ferrari closed up 1,68%, also supported by Morgan Stanley's increase in its target price, confirming its overweight rating.
On the opposite front, Avio lost 3,47%, Moncler 2,88%, Buzzi 2,79% and Prysmian 2,32%. Weak also Poste Italiane and Tim, on the eve of the expiration of the public purchase offer launched on the telecommunications group.
The spotlight remains on bank risk. The assembly of Intesa Sanpaolo ha The delegation for the capital increase was approved with 97% of the votes intended to support the operation on PsThe Sienese bank has also filed with Consob the documents relating to the offers on Bpm bank e General Bank.
MPS closed up 0,48%, while Banco BPM dropped 0,19%.
Oil prices above $105, gas above €82
The sentiment is mainly affected by the new rally in crude oilAfter an initial retracement, Brent crude has resumed its rise, rising above $105 a barrel, its highest level since May, while WTI is hovering around $100. The ongoing war in the Middle East and the intensification of attacks on oil tankers are fueling fears about the security of supplies and the impact of energy on inflation.
A quick solution to the conflict seems far off at the moment, according to MPS analysts. The tensions are also reflected in the financial market. gas, with the TTF back above 82 euros per MWh, the highest levels since the end of 2022.
The euro instead it moves slightly downwards, in the 1,1608 dollar area.
