Yet another attack in the heart of Paris three days before the first round of the presidential elections makes the eve of the vote even more dramatic. The first impression is that the tragedy of the Champs Elysées could give a boost to the chances of Marine Le Pen, already reported in difficulty by the polls. To the satisfaction of the Paris Stock Exchange which yesterday bet on the affirmation of the pro-European Emmanuel Macron but also on the resurrection of François Fillon, revived by the failed attack in Marseille.
This morning we will see the reaction of the Stock Exchange and of Eurozone bonds, which have so far contained the spread against the Bund. Certainly France (indeed, Europe) seem destined to experience two weeks of very high tension awaiting the run-off, a factor that cannot be overlooked by the ECB council on Thursday 27.
For the occasion, according to the experts, no new measures are envisaged, but the directorate could soon extend the quantitative easing beyond December, however cutting the monthly amount of purchases today equal to 60 billion euros. The reason? The collateral of the securities, especially the German ones, are starting to run low, as reported by the central bank bulletin.
ASIA RISES, TRUMP PUTS CHINESE STEEL IN THE SIGHT
Positive closing of the week for the Asian price lists. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index rose by 0,9% (+1,4% the weekly gain). Hong Kong and Shanghai +0,4%. The euro fell slightly after the Paris attack to 1,0716 against the dollar from 1,0778 on Thursday.
President Donald Trump authorized an investigation into steel imports from China, but the news did not damage Baosteel (+0,8%) and the other main producers in the area (+2,1% the Korean Posco). On the other hand, US companies are flying: sector index +8%.
The good performance of the quarterly has given new life to Wall Street. The Dow Jones index gained 0,85%, S&P 500 +0,76%. The Nasdaq (+0,92%) set a new all-time high at 5.916,78. The star of American Express shines (+5,9%) after declining results, contrary to forecasts. The worst stock was Philip Morris (-3,5%).
Oils were positive: Exxon Mobil +0,9%, Chevro +0,9%. Brent moved little at 52,98 dollars a barrel, Wti at 50,27 dollars (-17 cents). At Piazza Affari Eni unchanged, Tenaris -1,7%. Saipem -2,2%. This morning the accounts approved by the Board of Directors yesterday evening will be communicated.
FLY PARIS, FLAT THE OTHER BAGS
The Paris Stock Exchange flies on the bet of a defeat of Marine Le Pen already in the first round of the presidential elections. The other price lists of the Old Continent were much more cautious at the end of a day full of corporate appointments. In Milan, the Ftse Mib index closed the session with a +0,13% to 19.849 points. The Cac40 rises in Paris (+1,48%). Frankfurt (+0,09%) and London (+0,06%) moved little. Madrid was also flat (+0,02%).
Inflation signals are slowing down in Germany: producer prices in March remained unchanged on February, against expectations of +0,2%. The European Stability Mechanism ESM could turn into a European Monetary Fund in the short term. This was stated by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble speaking on the sidelines of the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund in Washington. Furthermore, according to Schaeuble, any other new financial aid program for the countries of the euro area should be implemented without the IMF.
Closing slightly up for the Italian bond market, which, despite thin volumes, does better than the rest of the euro area.
THE SPREAD LOWERED, WEDNESDAY 6 BILLION BOTS AT SIX MONTHS
The Italian 2,26-year rate fell to 2,28% from 203% at the end of Wednesday's session. The spread fell to 208 basis points from 0,856 the day before. In a climate that remains cautious, the drop in the France/Germany spread in the ten-year stretch below the lows for two weeks shows that most investors tend to exclude a victory by Marine Le Pen, in favor of France's exit from the euro. The French 0,244-year yield fell to XNUMX% (lowest for three months), the Bund rose to XNUMX%.
The latest polls confirm the centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron ahead of Marine Le Pen in Sunday's first round and then victorious, by a large margin, in the next runoff. But it is not excluded that François Fillon could snatch the post from the candidate of the Front National.
The Ministry of the Economy will make six-monthly BOTs available to investors for 6 billion euros in the auction to be held on Wednesday 26 April, against a maturing amount of the same amount. A note from the Treasury communicates it.
BANKS STILL IN THE RALLY. 62% OF UNICREDIT IN THE HANDS OF THE FUNDS
The positive boost to the Stock Exchanges came from the banks: the European Stoxx index of the sector rose by 0,7%, the Italian index by 1,3%.
In Milano Intesa gained 0,6%. Better Banco Bpm (+2,8%) and Ubi (+3%). Banca Generali also rose (+0,75%): Kepler Cheuvreux confirmed the buy recommendation and the target price of 26 euros on the stock, expecting the results for the first quarter of 2017 to show strong growth.
Unicredit +1,8% on the day of the meeting. During the assembly the veil was lifted on the name of the most important shareholders. The general manager, Gianni Franco Papa, announced that institutional investors hold 62% (2% of which is held by Italians), sovereign wealth funds 10%. Foundations are at 6%, retail investors are at 13%. The only shareholder with a stake above the relevant thresholds is the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Aabar with 5,038%. As regards top management, on Wednesday evening the Bank announced that Luca Cordero di Montezemolo has left his position as vice president. In March, the second of the three vice presidents, Fabrizio Palenzona, resigned. In Paris, Bnp Paribas rose by 4,1%, SocGen +3,4%.
THE CITY TRUSTS MEDIASET
The Vivendi affair is still in the spotlight. After a declining start, Mediaset invested the route going to close with a gain of 2,6% despite the strong loss results of the fourth quarter. Barclays has cut the recommendation to Underweight from Equal Weight and the target price to 3,25 euros from 4,15 euros. SocGen cuts the target price to 3,85 euros from 4,13 euros. In return, good indications emerged from the meeting with investors in London with the top management of the group on the achievement of the 2020 targets. Telecom Italia unchanged (+0,6%).
YNAP AT THE TOP (+5,9%), NEW HIGH FOR MONCLER
Several luxury titles on the catwalk. At the head of the main basket stands Yoox-Net-a-Porter with a leap of 5,9% with lively volumes, extending the increases from the previous day. We also note the +1,4% of Salvatore Ferragamo. Moncler (+0,8%) touches the all-time high to 22,08 euros. JP Morgan strengthened the Overweight recommendation bringing the target price to 23 euros from 21,50.
ATLANTIA BRAKS, SCORE ON JUVENTUS
Atlantia goes down (-2,6%). After confirming preliminary talks with Abertis, Deutsche Bank cut its rating to 'hold' from 'buy'. Other utilities are down: Enel loses 1,3%, Snam -0,8%.
Among the mid/small caps, Juventus closed down 5,2% after scoring in the morning the highest since 2006 thanks to the next round in the Champions League against Barcelona.
Ovs (+4,9%) marks new highs for the year: Kepler Cheuvreux has raised the target price from 6,2 to 6,9 euros, confirming the buy recommendation.
Fincantieri (+6,8%) also sets the record since 2015. The share accelerated upwards after exceeding the 0,8 euro threshold. A technical analyst pointed out that the stock has a positive bias.
