After the slight skid on the eve, on the day of the three witches, the European stock exchanges find the path to increases again, confident that any macro data in chiaroscuro will not change the course of monetary policy: in June both Fed that the ECB they will cut interest rates for the first time. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in two months is 60,1%. Last week they were 55,2%. Confirmations also come from the governor of the Finnish central bank and member of the ECB governing council, Olli Rehn, who revealed that last week the Eurotower board began discussing when to reduce interest rates.
Istat: stable inflation in Italy
While we await the numbers on import prices and on US industrial production, Istat reports that in February inflation in Italy remained stable on an annual basis. The national consumer price index recorded an increase of 0,1% on a monthly basis and 0,8% on an annual basis, as in the previous month. Core inflation decelerates from +2,7% to +2,3%. The acquired inflation for 2024 is equal to +0,5% for the general index and +1,0% for the underlying component. Turning to trade, Istat estimates that in January the retail sales recorded a cyclical decline of 0,1% in value and 0,3% in volume.
In parallel the Bank of Italy revealed that in January the public debt it amounted to 2.848,7 billion, down by 14,1 billion compared to the value of December 2023 thanks to the decline in the Treasury's liquid assets (15,7 billion, to 34,2) and the effect of discounts and premiums to the issue and reimbursement, the revaluation of inflation-indexed securities and the change in exchange rates which overall reduced the debt by 1,3 billion, partially offset by the requirement (2,9 billion). In the same month the tax revenue accounted for in the state budget amounted to 46,5 billion, an increase of 5,1% (2,3 billion) compared to the corresponding month of 2023.
News also from Francia, where according to Insee in February inflation slowed to 3% on year, after +3,1% in January. Between January and February, prices increased by 0,9% after -0,2% in January, due to "the strong acceleration in energy prices", led by electricity and petroleum products.
Latest stock market news: Europe on the rise, Milan among the best
European stock markets are rising slightly, driven by the manufacturing sector telecommunications, with the Stoxx 600 sub-index marking the best performance in the Old Continent with an increase of 0,9%. The focus is on binding agreements between Swisscom and Vodafone for the acquisition of 100% of Vodafone Italia for 8 billion euros with the aim of integrating it with Fastweb, Swisscom's affiliate in Italy.
Around 12,30, the pan-European index Stoxx 600 rises by 0,2% and seems to be heading for its eighth consecutive week of gains. The index has hit a new record in three of five sessions this week, supported by a series of positive corporate results and expectations of an interest rate cut by the ECB in June.
In this context, it still is Madrid the best stock exchange in Europe. In the aftermath of first green light for the amnesty law, the Ibex 35 gains 1,15%. Follows – at a distance – Business Square which in the middle of the session gained 0,68%, once again crossing the threshold of 34 thousand points. Rises around 0,4% per Frankfurt e Paris, while she is more shy Amsterdam, which travels on parity. Outside the EU, London marks +0,14%:
Banks and Tim rise in Piazza Affari, Cucinelli falls
The banks are supporting the performance of the Milanese stock market, with Kbw analysts having revised upwards the target price on the Intesa Sanpaolo shares (to 4,39 euros from 3,88 euros, Mps (to 5,68 euros) and Unicredit (to 46 from 41,5%). For all three the rating is Outperform.
Ps it is the best stock in the Ftse Mib with an increase of 4,47%, Bper earns 2,09%, General Bank 1,89%, Mediobanca 1,43%. Rises above 1% also for Intesa Sanpaolo e Unicredit.
Also shop on Inwit (+ 2,69%) and Saipem (+ 2,37%). stellantis rose by 2,46% after Piper Sandler initiated overweight coverage.
The stock's rebound continues Telecom Italy (+1,7%) which had already closed the session in positive on Thursday (+3,5%), after the debacle of the previous sessions which also attracted the attention of the Government. Since March 7, the day of the presentation of the first network-free plan to analysts, Tim has in fact exchanged over 40% of the ordinary share capital. Yesterday, a KKR spokesperson reiterated, regarding the approval process of the NetCo deal, that discussions with the EU are in full swing and that the parties continue to work towards the closing by the summer. Minister Urso also expressed his opinion on this matter, defining the NetCo project as "absolutely sustainable and competitive". The comments from KKR and the government, Equita underlines, "reaffirm their full support for the NetCo deal and their full belief that it can be approved within the expected timeframe, an essential element to secure Tim's financial sustainability".
Ftse Mib black shirt Brunello Cucinelli (-5,5%), in the aftermath of the presentation of accounts, after the increases of the last few sessions. Bad moncler. Double R, which holds 23,721% of the company, announced the assignment of Moncler shares to the Venezio Investments holdings, and Grinta, a vehicle of the Rivetti family, after the withdrawal. The former rose to 7,9% of the capital, the latter to 3,9%. There is also among the worst stm (-2%).
Outside the Ftse Mib the following are worth mentioning:
- the slip of WeBuild, which lost 5,7% after the accounts;
- Bank Profile (+1%) following the green light for the 2023 budget, which closed with profits rising by 8,9% to 12 million, the board of directors will propose an ordinary dividend and profit reserves for a total value of 0,0155 euros per share (payout ratio of 84% and yield of 7,4%);
- it is volatile sapphire (+0,26%) after a 2023 decline in revenues and Ebitda margin.
Spread rising, oil +3% in a week
Lo spread Btp-Bund, after falling below 14 basis points on Thursday 120 December (minimum since November 2021), rose back to the 127 basis point area, and then settled at 123 points, with the yield on the Italian ten-year bond to 3,66%
On the currency, the exchange euro Dollar it moves in the 1,089 area, the same level as the day before. However, prices are falling Petroleum are down (-0,5% for Brent and WTI, respectively at 84,97 and 80,8 dollars a barrel), but are set to gain more than 3% for the week, driven by the increase in demand forecasts for oil for 2024 by the International Energy Agency and by an unexpected drop in US inventories.
