The Tokyo Stock Exchange is on vacation today. Masayoshi Son, founder and leader of the giant Softbank, no. This morning the Japanese group will announce the purchase of Arm, the jewel of British technology, for 23,4 billion pounds, the most significant amount ever paid for a European hi-tech group, at the forefront of the design of the Internet of things. The drop in the pound undoubtedly contributed to favoring the operation.
ISTANBUL, THE RISK OF CAPITAL FLIGHT REMAINS
But the attention of the financial markets is today concentrated on the Istanbul Stock Exchange and on the performance of the Turkish lira while the news on the arrests of soldiers and magistrates is multiplying, in a climate of growing tension with the USA, "guilty" of harboring Fetulla Gul , the great enemy of the president.
The Turkish currency is recovering positions this morning (+1,7%) after the crash (-4.6%) on Friday evening. But the failed anti-Erdogan coup undoubtedly added further stress to the finances of a country heavily dependent on foreign capital: out of the 15,8 billion dollars flowing into Turkey in the first 5 months of the year, only 2,3 billion (50% in less than a year ago) comes from direct investments in the country's economy.
The rest came in the form of bond and stock purchases. In other words, I was ready to quickly take flight in case of danger, as Brian Jacobsen of Wells Fargo points out to Bloomberg: “It is probable that in the next few days we will see an outflow of capital from the country, because political instability creates an additional risk that investors don't want to run."
Asian stock exchanges were calm at the start: Hong Kong and Sidney rose slightly, fractional losses for Shanghai and Shenzhen. Gold falls (-0,6%), confirming that the geopolitical tension is cooling down.
BANKS, MARIO DRAGHI TAKES THE FIELD
The new attack against the US police, this time in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and the Chinese military maneuvers in the disputed waters in the South China Sea confirm this morning that the world, starting from Europe wounded in Nice, is living in full geopolitical emergency. But business as usual continues.
From a financial point of view, the key appointment of the week will undoubtedly be next Thursday's ECB meeting, the first after Brexit. No news on rates is expected but, in addition to the analysis of the economic situation and the usual monetary policy signals, Mario Draghi will take the opportunity to reiterate the ECB's position on capital needs ten days after the EBA stress test and on the non-performing loans of Italian banks and those of other EU countries. It could be the decisive push for an agreement within the EU.
QUARTERLY REPORTS GIVE WALL STREET A CHARGE
Wall Street, in great health, focuses on the earnings campaign. Both Dow Jones and S&P (+6% in the last three weeks) closed the week with new records. After the good results of JP Morgan and Citigroup, attention shifts to the other big banks (Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs), the big names in technology (Ibm, Microsoft, Intel, Netflix, Qualcomm) and consumption ( Johnson & Johnson, Starbucks). In the second quarter, according to analysts, profits from the US markets decreased by 4,7%.
CAIRO: THE COURIER ADVENTURE KICKS OFF TODAY, INCREASE IN SIGHT
For Italian finance, a historic appointment today at the Circolo della Stampa: Urbano Cairo, from Piedmont, president of Turin football, presents himself to the media as editor of Corriere della Sera, the first after thirty years of condominium at the helm of via Solferino.
The duel with the consortium led by Andrea Bonomi ended on Friday evening with the success of Cairo Communications' takeover bid, which raised 48,8% of the capital against 37,7% of the competing offer led by the financier. The orientation of the funds was decisive for the success, which, by a large majority, preferred the mixed offer (paper plus cash) of the publisher of La7.
The outcome of the offer will be officially announced on Monday by Consob. From then and for 5 days, the 13% of shares that went to Bonomi will be able - by law - to migrate to Cairo, which therefore has the possibility of rising to almost 62% of Rcs. Therefore, Cairo Communicaton's cash outlay (25 cents per share) could vary between a minimum of 63 million (of which 6 to itself), up to a maximum of approximately 80 million.
Similarly, Cairo's controlling share of his company, currently at 73%, will be diluted in a range between 46,5 and 51,1%. In any case, Cairo has already announced that, if it stops at 46%, it will buy up to 5% on the market to get back above the absolute majority stake. A Cairo Communication meeting is scheduled for today to discuss various topics: proposal to increase share capital, issue new shares and amendments to the Articles of Association.
LUXURY TRYING AGAIN, ATLANTIA NEAR NICE AIRPORT
Travel, hotels and luxury: it won't be easy, but Europe is trying to recover from the shock of the Nice tragedy. Meanwhile, the French economy ministry has postponed the sale of the French city's airport, the second in the country, by eight days. Atlantia (-0,4% on Friday) in consortium with Edf has good chances of winning 60% of the airport. In the meantime, the Benetton company is accelerating the choice of investment banks that will support it in the sale of 30% of Autostrade per l'Italia.
On the other hand, luxury on the barricades after Black Friday for the sector. Yoox and Ferragamo lost 3%, while Bryan Garnier intervened on Moncler and Lvmh, removing the two stocks from the list of favorites (top picks). The landslide of Swatch (-13%) and Richemont (-4%) after the collapse of watch sales in Europe and China is symptomatic.
THE MARKET BETS ON THE MPS AGREEMENT (+21,8%)
It could be the decisive week for an agreement on the banks. In the meantime, as the Bank of Italy's economic bulletin revealed, Draghi's shield guarantees the necessary oxygen for the system. Italian institutions participated in the first long-term financing operation Tltro2 conducted by the ECB at the end of June for the substantial amount of just under 139 billion euros.
In great evidence Monte Paschi, protagonist of a leap of 21,8%% in the last week, despite Moody's announcing that it has put the stock under review for a possible downgrade since it sees "an increase in the probability that the bank needs external support".
In this regard, the Deputy Minister for the Economy, Luigi Casero, responding in the Chamber of the Chamber, declared that "it is not excluded that, where necessary, any public support measures may be initiated in full agreement with the institutions of the European Union and of the Banking Union”.
Thus the hypothesis that the Atlante 2 fund collects 3 billion euros to intervene in support of Montepaschi's doubtful loans to dispose of 10 billion NPLs as soon as possible to respond to the requests of the ECB takes shape.
BUSINESS PLACE DROPPES BY 4,25%, ONLY 5 STOCKS IN RED
Driven by the rally of the banks, Piazza Affari recovered 4,25% during the week. In addition to the bank of Siena, in strong recovery Unicredit (+14,38%) ahead of Bper (+13,47) and Bpm (+12,72%). Unipol also recovered (+11,88%). Only five titles in negative ground during the week: down by Terna (-2,60 )% after the rejection of Citigroup. Minor losses for Fineco, Campari, Recordati and Snam.
