On 9 August 2007, a press release from Bnp Paribas informed operators that, due to "a complex evaporation of liquidity", the redemptions of the units of some funds invested in subprime securities had been suspended. Thus kicked off the worst financial crisis of the last 70 years which, in some ways (see the Italian GDP) is not yet completely overcome. But the world of credit, also thanks to the severe dose of fines issued by the authorities, especially the USA (over 150 billion dollars) today appears much more solid, undoubtedly able to sustain the rally of early August.
In fact, this morning the financial markets opened under the sign of bulls under the pressure of the good data on the US labor market announced on Friday: 209 new jobs, unemployment rate down to 4,3%, news that supported Wall Street ( Dow Jones above 22 points) and reduced the losses of the dollar which on Friday gained a sudden 1% against the euro, traded today in Asia at 1,17985 against the maximum of 1,187 on Thursday's closing.
CAR PUSHES TOKYO, PYONGYANG DOESN'T BRAKE KOREA
All Asian price lists are up. Tokyo rises (+0,6%), supported by car stocks. On Friday Toyota and Mazda announced an exchange of shares and a joint investment in the USA, probably in the sunbelt, i.e. in the southern states, resistant to the union, as confirmed by the no of Nissan workers to the establishment of a UAW garrison in the plant Guangzhou (Mississippi).
Ditto Shanghai (+0,4%). Sidney is also on positive ground (+1%) thanks to the boom in iron purchases by China. The Korean Kospi advances by 0,5%: President Moon has welcomed the sanctions voted by the United Nations Security Council against Pyongyang.
MILAN DEFENDS THE RECORD, OIL SUMMIT
The rally promises to continue on the European lists, already supported by the excellent Italian performance. The FtseMib index rallied by 2,3% last week. Year-to-date performance is 14%, double that achieved by Frankfurt and Paris.
This morning's data on German industrial production should confirm the excellent momentum of the most important economy in the Eurozone, a significant test for the ECB's forthcoming decisions on the cost of money. Eurozone inflation data will be released on Friday.
Looking forward to today's meeting in Abu Dhabi between Opec and Non-Opec producers. The producing countries will take stock of their adhesion to the agreement on cuts, which has been respected by many but not all. Among these, the most unruly Iraq, Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, Libya and Nigeria.
This morning oil confirms the weekend's progress: Brent at 52,37 dollars, Wti at 49,23.
TELECOM BUSINESS: LIVE IN THE STRETCHES
In Piazza Affari the spotlights will be concentrated on the Telecom affair. Today or at the latest tomorrow Vivendi will have to respond to Consob's new request for clarification. In particular, the French group will have to say whether it exercises control over the former incumbent of the Italian telecommunications companies, even in the form of "dominant influence". It is probable that Vivendi, solicited through the French Autorité des marchés financiers, will answer no, but this will not stop the investigation by the Italian commission.
There are two possible consequences in the event of a positive response: the obligation to consolidate the debt and the notification of the golden power, or the legitimacy of the Italian government to intervene. Another topic of conflict is the joint venture between Tim and Canal Plus announced by chairman Arnaud de Puyfontaine, on which Agcom is ready to veto if the issue of Vivendi's simultaneous participation in Mediaset and Telecom is not resolved first.
SPOTLIGHTS ON THE BPM COUNTER IN THE BUSINESS SQUARE
Attention also to Banco Bpm after the agreement for the sale of Aletti Gestielle to Anima. The operation, which took place at a price of 700 million euro for 100% of the company, will bring 400 million euro to Banco Bpm's coffers, including other payments. According to Equita analysts, there will also be strong benefits for Anima, equal to approximately 2 euros per share.
AUCTION THE ANNUAL BOTS. THE TENDER FOR ALITALIA STARTS
The agenda of the markets is almost empty, now in full holiday atmosphere. The quarterly season is coming to an end. In the USA Disney's accounts will be approved, in Europe it will be up to Abn and e.On. Tomorrow the Board of Directors of Banca Ifis will meet to approve the accounts.
The after hours session of Borsa Italiana will not be held throughout the week. The highlight will be the annual Bot auction on Thursday. On the other hand, there will be no auction for medium and long-term securities. On the macro front, pay attention to the data on Italian industrial production (Wednesday) and the trade balance (Thursday).
From today until midnight on 15 September, expressions of interest for Alitalia can be presented.
BREXIT: LONDON AGREE TO PAY 40 BILLION
There could be a breakthrough for Brexit in Europe. The Sunday Telegraph writes that London would have given its willingness to pay up to 40 billion euros to the EU to settle the divorce bill from the EU but on the condition that Brussels agrees to negotiate the economic agreement in the context of an agreement on relations futures which also includes a trade agreement.
But the sword of Damocles of clearing hangs over London. The European Parliament, writes the Financial Times, is preparing to vote on new rules for post-trading activities on Eurozone securities, imposing the obligation that they take place in EU territory, depriving the City of its major source of revenue.
The good intonation of Wall Street could instead be accentuated by the statements of Gary Cohn, president of the National Economic Council and favorite candidate to succeed Janet Yellen in 2018: Cohn said that a measure is being defined to favor the return of capital of multinationals parked abroad.
Worth noting is the start of US Vice President Mike Spence's visit to South America. At the center of the talks is the crisis in Venezuela but also the cut in contributions for the war on drugs in Central America. Today the Pasi del Mercosur have decided to suspend trade relations with Caracas.
Hot vigil for tomorrow's elections in Kenya: a confrontation between outgoing president Uhuru Kenyatta and his challenger, former premier Raila Odinga. In previous elections, 1.200 people died after the vote.
