A financial week poor in macro appointments opens under the banner of uncertainty. The Greek crisis weighs heavily, now close to the end of the line. Concern over the slowdown in the US economy hangs over the stock markets, highlighted on Friday by both the unexpected drop in industrial production and the drop in consumer confidence. Signs of recession are also arriving from China: in April the price index for new homes fell sharply (-6,1%). The Nikkei index in Tokyo is up 0,4%. Chinese Stock Exchanges contrasted: Hong Kong down (-0,7%), Shanghai just above parity. The dollar is weak, trading at 1,1428 against the euro.
CENTRAL BANKER CONSULTING ON RATES. FED MINUTES COMING SOON
Is the rate-cutting season coming to an end? After two weeks of high tension on the bond markets, central bankers will meet in a few days in Sintra, Portugal, on the occasion of the summit which every year brings together, hosted by the ECB, representatives of the Fed, the Bank of England and Asian institutes. The increase in market rates is under observation, driven upwards by both the yields of German Bunds and US bonds. The ten-year BTP restarts from the 1,76% recorded on Friday.
The meeting will be preceded by some important indications: Wednesday, there will be the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed, useful for understanding the real beliefs of Washington's leaders. Janet Yellen will speak on Friday. After reassurances from Mario Draghi, Yves Mersch, a member of the ECB, also said that the is working properly and its interruption is not expected in September.
Among the most important macro themes of the week are the PMI data of China and Japan, both in slowdown. In Europe, consumer confidence and the data on EU inflation stand out.
LETTER FROM TSIPRAS TO THE BOTTOM: IN JUNE WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PAY
However, the most urgent and dramatic unknown factor on the markets remains the Greek situation. Alexis Tsipras, in a letter to the director general of the IMF Christine Lagarde, made it known that, in the absence of new funds arriving from the EU, "under no circumstances" will Greece be able to pay the next tranches of the debt towards the Monetary Fund. From Washington they replied that, if there is no news, it will be inevitable that the Fund will withdraw the resources already available to Athens.
At this point, the Riga summit scheduled for Wednesday and next Thursday will be decisive. The situation, however, seems to be on the high seas. According to rumors, Athens is preparing to present a long list of tax increases but no action on pensions or public employees. From Berlin, the Social Democrat deputy premier Sigmar Gabriel reiterated that, pending more stringent commitments, there will be no aid. Fitch meanwhile confirmed the CCC rating of Greek bonds.
ITALY, AFTER THE S&P VOTE, THE EXTRA PAYMENT FOR PENSIONS
This morning, markets will evaluate S&P's report card for Italy on Friday: BBB- rating, stable outlook. The progress of the economy in recent months depends almost entirely on external factors (see Qe), and is jeopardized by disbursements for pensions following the ruling by the Consulta. The spotlight is therefore on the government's decisions.
Prime Minister Matteo Renzi anticipated the solution via TV: 500 euros arriving for 4 million pensioners, that is, for those who earn less than 3 thousand euros. The cost of the operation, 2,2 billion, will be covered by the 2 billion already earmarked for anti-poverty measures.
THE MILAN STOCK SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR UP BY 23%
The Milan Stock Exchange was the only one in Europe to close the week in positive territory (+0,7%). Year-to-date performance is +23%. Budgets in the red instead for Paris (-1,9%) and Frankfurt (-2,3%). The Eurostoxx 600 index closed the week with a drop of 0,8%.
RAIN OF DIVIDENDS AT PIAZZA AFFARI
Meanwhile, today is the big day of dividends in Piazza Affari. Dozens of listed companies detach the coupon, including, in the Ftse Mib basket, Ansaldo (0,15), Atlantia (0,445), Azimut (0,78), Bper (0,02), Bpm (0,022), Buzzi (0,05 .0,08), Campari (0,032), Enel Green Power (0,56), Eni (0,6 on balance), Generali (0,07), Intesa (0,081 ord. 1,44 resp.) Luxottica (0,02 ) Mediaset (0,12), Moncler (0,367), Pirelli (0,431 ord, resp. 0,05), Saipem (0,42), Ferragamo 0,25), Snam (0,3), Tenaris (2 dollars on balance) Tods, (0,12 euro), Unicredit (1,065 ord. 0,08 savings), Ubi (XNUMX).
Among the mid caps, however, Anima (0,167), Banca Generali (0,98), Banca Popolare di Sondrio (0,06), Brunello Cucinelli (0,12), Cattolica (0,35), Credem (0,15 ), Diasorin (0,6), Erg (0,5), Italcementi (0,09), Parmalat (0,016), Rai Way (0,1234), Sias (0,18), Sol (0,11).
Finally, among the Stars, Amplifon (0,43), Banca Finnat (0,01), Biesse (0,36), Bolzoni (0,035), Brembo (0,6), Cembre (0,36), Cementir (0,1 ,1,1), Ei Towers (0,0375), Igd (0,065), TerniEnergia (0,25), Txt Solution (1 + XNUMX aion every ten free).
THE ZANETTI IPO IS COMING. MAXI BOND FOR ATLANTIA
Various operations on site this morning:
– the offer of the bond by Autostrade per l'Italia (Atlantia group) begins;
– the IPO of the Massimo Zanetti group starts, of which 36,5% of the capital will be placed (a large part of the funds is used to repay Banca Intesa a loan serviced for acquisitions completed in 2014);
– Banca Carige groups the shares: one new ordinary and savings for every 100 in circulation.
MONTE PASCHI, LAST MOVES BEFORE THE INCREASE
Great maneuvers around Monte Paschi, awaiting the launch of the 3 billion capital increase set for Monday 25 May. Today there will be a grouping of shares: 1 for every 20 outstanding. Consob approval could also arrive. The price of the increase will instead be fixed by the Board of Directors on Thursday. The operation will be carried out under the direction of a consortium led by UBS, Citi, Goldman Sachs and Mediobanca who will present the operation to the market in these days.
Among the shareholders who participate in the hard core of the bank, Fintech (4,5%) and Btg Pactual (2%) as well as Alessandro Falciai (1,7%) and Axa (3,7%) guarantee subscription. Still in doubt the Mps Foundation, which should invest 75 million to keep its stake at 2,5%.
But the increase, which will make it possible to repay the last tranche (one billion) of state aid, does not end the emergency: the ECB has ordered the closing of the game of Alexandria, the derivative with Nomura, for 4,7 billion by on June 26.
The objective of the summit is to be able to account for the contract in a penalty-free manner and/or to find an agreement with the Japanese bank. It will be Alessandro Profumo's last mission before he bids farewell to the presidency. It will probably not be he who will negotiate the conditions of a merger with some bank (see Ubi) as always requested by the ECB.
TELECOM, A HOT WEEK STARTS
The countdown has begun for the dissolution of Telco and the consequent entry of Vivendi into the shareholding structure of Telecom Italia. In the meantime, however, the market is called to price the news of the confirmation of the fine of 103,8 million imposed on the former incumbent by the Antitrust for abuse of the dominant position.
The broadband game is always topical. After the rumors about Enel's plan and Terna's involvement, on Friday A2A also gave its willingness to collaborate on a plan for laying the fiber.
FCA, NEW REFUND OF CHRYSLER BONDS
Fiat Chrysler has repaid $2,875 billion in 2019 bonds issued by the Detroit subsidiary before the merger. Now only the 2021 bonds are missing from the appeal. Once the old outstanding debts have been repaid in the coming months, FCA will regain full freedom of action on the US bond market, necessary to finance the group's investment plan starting from the next take-off of the Alfa project, scheduled for 24 June in Arese.
