The diet imposed by central banks is paying off. From the speech by Jerome Powell from last Friday to last night Wall Street left $1.500 trillion on the ground of capitalization dollars. Not only. The positive macro data, especially on the employment front (yesterday the Jolt index which measures the start-up of new businesses), are now more of a cause for concern than optimism, such is the fear of new rate hikes to stamp out the inflation. As happened yesterday, when the consumer confidence reading, much higher than expected, coincided with a flurry of sell-offs that pushed up the index S&P below 4 thousand points. In short, it is an upside-down world that greets the end of summer on the Stock Exchange, giving away the latest negative records, among which the the highest figure for German inflation in 50 years. The stock market compass, under stress, does not give reliable reference points: oil, after a 4% jump on Monday, lost 5% yesterday, natural gas, at the center of speculation, falls in view of the EU meeting on 9 September. But tonight Gazprom turned off the taps to Germany and imposed a penalty on the French Engie.
Futures anticipate a higher opening
- Also this morning, as in recent days, stock market openings they still promise a rebound. This morning the future of the main US stock market index, which slipped yesterday and 3.986 points, gains 0,7%. Nasdaq futures are up 0,6%, from -1,1% in yesterday's index. That on the EuroStoxx 50 index rises by 0,5%.
- Weak most of asian bags: Nikkei -0,4% (+1% overall in August). Hang Seng of Hong Kong -0,4% (-1,4% per month), CSI 300 of Shanghai and Shenzen lists -0,6%.
They are little better than expected i data on economic activity in China released by the Beijing National Bureau of Statistics. The PMI manufacturing index improved slightly in August, to 49,4 from 49 in July: the consensus was 49,2. The non-manufacturing PMI fell back to 52,6 in August, from 53,8 in July.
Buffett cuts stake in Chinese electric car
Listed in Hong Kong loses 10% BYD. The Berkshire fund has reduced its stake in the Chinese electric car maker. The investment company, now down to 19,9% of the capital, has sold 1,33 million shares, out of a total of 220 million.
- Also on the rise Kospi of Seoul, +0,3% (+0,3% per month). The government announced tonight a package of measures to support births, among these, the allowance paid to families with a newborn is tripled. South Korea ranks last in the world in fertility rankings.
Mumbai +3,5% wins the price list race in August
August trading crowned Mumbai as the leader. There Indian stock exchange achieved a rise of 3,5% which is certainly not unrelated to the position of relative advantage caused by the Ukrainian war: New Delhi buys Russian oil (previously almost absent) with a strong discount, at least a third, on the official prices.
Closing in the red yesterday for the US lists: S&P 500 – 1,3%, Nasdaq -1,1%, Dow Jones -1%.
The T bond rises to its highest level since 2007. The president of the New York Fed, John Williams, reiterated yesterday the rigid line of the Fed: rates will rise to the point where they will curb economic activity. Having reached that level, they will remain there for quite some time, until there is a well-founded certainty of a stabilization of the dynamics of consumer prices.
Il Treasury Note yield over the two years it is at its highest since 2007 at 3,47%, about 25 basis points below the level that the Federal Reserve has indicated it intends to reach. Futures discount rates at 3,75%-4% around the middle of next year: today we are at 2,50%.
Spread at 232, long time for gas reform
- Yesterday the unknown factor of gas quenched the desire for a recovery on the European stock exchanges. Milano, practically flat -0,08% is among the best lists.
- Closes the day at a yield of 3,85% the ten-year BTP, Bunds at 1,50%. Spreads at 232.
- The president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen has announced that in the European Union the gas storages they are on average at 80%. The emergency measures should be presented in the coming weeks. As for the reform of the market, a more ambitious and structural objective, we will have to wait for the beginning of next year.
Oil on a roller coaster, Brent at $100 today
Start of the week of breathtaking ups and downs for oil. Brent and WTI They are up 1% this morning, they closed down 5% yesterday, from +4% on Monday. A pro-Tehran TV station in London reported that Iran and the United States have reached an agreement to revive a nuclear deal that could legitimately put the Islamic Republic's oil back on the export market. No further confirmations have been received.
THEBloomberg Commodity index it lost 2,4%, the largest daily negative change in two months.
Cucinelli, Stellantis and Eni
- Brunello Cucinelli confirms the guidance on revenues for 2022 and 2023 after closing the first half with a net profit up 131,4% to 50,6 million. Operating margin stood at 13,9%, better than 2019 level and above expectations. In the second quarter, turnover rose by 46% to 218 million.
- stellantis will stop for production in the Sevel plant in Atessa from 31 August to 3 September due to the lack of supplies of components for the Citroen and Peugeot vans.
- Eni: Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met Eni's CEO Claudio Descalzi yesterday in Cairo to discuss in particular the production of natural gas in Egypt and LNG exports.
