The initial attempt to rebound by Piazza Affari has failed, down by 0,55% at 19.740 points. The other European lists also take the downward path: Frankfurt (-0,58%), Paris (-0,36%) and Madrid (-0,17%).
Meanwhile, the pressure on debt securities is increasing. The ten-year BTP trades at a yield of 3,72%, from 3,56% yesterday, already a record since February 2014. The spread, after an attempt to drop below 300 basis points, rebounded to 314, the highest for five years, with a peak at 317.
The yield on thirty-year maturity reached 4% this morning for the first time since August 2014.
Tomorrow Treasury auctions resume with the offer of 6 billion 12-month BOTs (similar quantity maturing). On the gray market this morning the new stock is trading at 1,1%, the highest values since 2013.
The Treasury will auction up to 6,5 billion euros of government bonds on 3-year, seven-year, 15-year and 30-year maturities on Thursday.
Attention obviously remains focused on the Italian manoeuvre. Economy Minister Giovanni Tria before the Budget Commission of the Chamber said he believed that the growth forecasts indicated in the DEF will be largely exceeded, even if the macroeconomic scenario remains at risk of deterioration. But the Monetary Fund, which has revised its estimates on global growth downwards, has not spared the Bel Paese: growth will be 1,2% for 2018 and 1% in 2019, lower than the 1,5% indicated from Def. Furthermore, warns the Fund, a further drop in the prices of government bonds, is the warning, could worsen the dynamics of the Italian debt, with possible repercussions also on other countries, once again triggering the vicious circle between sovereign debt and banks.
Brent oil rose by 0,6% to 84,4 dollars a barrel, from -0,3% yesterday.
The oil companies advance in Piazza Affari. Eni è up 1,3%, after news about Libya. The Italian company will assume the role of leading operator in place of BP. Exploration activities, stopped since 2014 due to the civil war, should resume in the coming months. Saipem + 1,1%.
Rising oil prices have also fueled fears about slowing growth. Bank of America Merrill Lynch says that in a scenario where Brent prices cross the $100 mark, economic growth in the euro area is said to be depressed, with a drop of up to 0,5%.
After a timid initial rise, the Italian banking sector marks a drop of 0,67%.
Ubi leave 2,3%, Bper -3,6%. The Bigs are also in red: Understanding -1,18% and Unicredit -1,5%.
In a report on european banks Jp Morgan advises maintaining investments in the sector, despite the volatility in Italy given the attractive valuations of the sector. However, the US financial giant cut its EPS estimates for Italian banks by an average of 8% due to higher funding costs, plus low growth forecasts for loans and commission income. Finally, the investment bank also reduced its NAV estimates by 3% for 2018-20 based on a BTP-Bund spread of 340 points by this year.
However, the broker continues to believe in the potential of the Italian banking market which will be able to benefit from NPL sales operations, sector consolidation and cost and business restructuring activities. Among the favourites Unicredit (“overweight” with a target price reduced to 16 from 18 euros). Reduced the target by Understanding (Neutral at 2,50 from 2,80 euros).
In the rest of the price list, the relaunch of the Orizzonte Sistemi Navali jv between Leonardo -0,6% and Fincantieri -0,4%. The company led by Alessandro Profumo is preparing to sign an agreement in the aeronautical sector, of an industrial and commercial nature, with the Chinese Comac.
Out of the main basket, Astaldi + 12% Trevi + 11%. sapphire + 4%.
