Nervous markets at the end of the week, with European lists almost all negative, with the exception of London and Athens. Even Wall Street, after a brief moment of optimism at the start, is in turn in the red. There are many reasons for tension starting from the collapse of the pound on the Asian markets, when people slept in the West; the uncertainty about the future of oil as far as it could come out at the informal meeting in Istanbul next week, while the Russian energy minister, Alexander Novak, says he is not interested in reaching an agreement on freezing production levels; And disappointing US employment data. In fact, last month the world economic locomotive created 156 jobs, fewer than estimates, while the unemployment rate rose to 5%, against the 4,9% expected.
In Piazza Affari, the Ftse Mib closes at -0.52%, however, Mps stands out positively for once, with increases of more than 3% until mid-day and then 1,25% at the end. That of Sienese bank above all it seems to be a rebound after the persistent declines of recent days and the idea is consolidating that investors will seek to invest in subordinated bonds rather than equities, hoping for a convenient conversion as part of the capital strengthening operation.
To warm up the spirits of the markets today they were not enough not even the words of Mario Draghi, which further allayed fears of a 'tapering' by the ECB: "We confirmed our 'forward guidance' on the purchase of securities and on interest rates - stated Draghi, in a speech to the IMFC Committee of the Monetary Fund international – saying that the ECB intends to continue its bond purchases until the end of March 2017 and beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustainable adjustment in the inflation trend towards levels close to but below 2 % in the medium term”. The recovery of the Eurozone appears slower than expected, but the current orientation of the Central Bank "offers a unique window of opportunity - warns Draghi - to accelerate the pace of implementation of structural reforms in various areas". The burden of problem loans remains in the banking sector and this reduces the ability of banks to make new credit. To get out of these shallows joint action is needed by all the actors on the scene: "governments, banks, legislators and investors at national and European level so as to be able to make clear progress in this sector".
Meanwhile they arrive from Brussels good news for the Good bank, as the Commission has authorized the extension of the sale process of the four bridge banks.
After several days of positive trend, however, today Milan marks a retreat. Among the worst stocks we find Mediaset (-2,24%) and Ferragamo (-1,92%). Luxottica still loses e there is cautious expectation on quarterly data due to a weakness in the US market where the group makes 60% of sales. Lights and shadows on banks: Unicredit -0,84, Intesa San Paolo -0,3, Finecobank -2,23, Banca Mediolanum -1,05, Bper -1,41; Positive for Popolare di Milano +0,08, Banco Popolare +0,27, Ubi Banca +1,85, the best with Mps.
On the European front London is up 0,63% thanks to purchases on mining stocks and exporting companies after the pound's slide. An event that the German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble does not underestimate: "Currency volatility - he says - is always a source of concern".
From the German front instead good news about macro data: the government raised its 2016 GDP growth estimates to 1,8%, from the previous +1,7%. However, the Frankfurt stock exchange lost 0,52%, even with Duetsche Bank positive, also because, according to the Financial Times, it is considering listing the Asset Management division on the Stock Exchange. Furthermore, Qatari investors, who hold the largest shareholding in the German giant, would not be willing to sell, but could indeed evaluate the purchase of other shares if the bank decides to raise new capital.
Oil chapter: Brent futures fell today, after briefly coming close to 2016 highs. The rally was achieved despite a strengthening dollar, which makes oil more expensive for foreign currency traders, and increases in supplies from the Libya, Nigeria and Russia. Today the fear is beginning to spread that the market is buoyed in recent days especially by Hurricane Matthew, but that everything could return next week.
After the unemployment data in the meantime the dollar weakened today returning to 1,1150 against the euro; it also fell against the yen, while the decline of the pound against the US currency remains around 2% (to 1,235 per dollar).
Gold today marks a modest increase (+0,5%), 1.258 dollars an ounce, but is starting to close the week of trading on the Nymex with a drop close to 5%, the biggest drop since November 2015. In the evening the revision of the Italian rating by Moody's is awaited.
