It leaves on the ground just under 3% Piazza Affari in slight recovery after losing up to 4% under the sign of the return of the pandemic which this time affects England, or the most fragile point of the global economy building, already under tension for the increasingly concrete risk of hard Brexit. The combination of the blockade of borders, both in the skies and on the Channel, and the new stalemate in the negotiations on leaving the European Union it has already translated into an interminable snake of trucks in Calais with the prospect of a total blockade of the traffic which Boris Johnson is trying to cope with with the Cobra operation. The Department of Transport is preparing a contingency plan and Manston Airport is gearing up to relieve pressure on the ports.
In deep red all the markets starting from Frankfurt (-3,97%). Sterling wavers, traded at 0,92 against the euro. We go back to looking for security and buy the German Bund, but we don't mind the 0,543-year bond which strengthens to 116% yield. The spread with the BTP rises to XNUMX basis points. The agreement in the US Congress is overshadowed on a $900 billion aid plan. Democrats and Republicans have agreed to give the unemployed an extra $300 a week and a $600 bonus that will be collected by virtually every citizen. The dollar thus returned to appreciate (1,215 against the euro) after weeks of heavy declines. An opening in deep red is also expected for the American stock exchanges despite Tesla's debut in the S&P index.
Stocks most exposed to the relationship with London are suffering in Piazza Affari. Under fire Leonardo -4,28%. The resurgence of the pandemic has sent oil prices plummeting below $50. Energy stocks are down sharply: Saipem -4,58%, Eni -4,42%, Tenaris 3,98%.
Banks are also in sharp decline: Bper and Unicredit they leave more than 3 and a half points on the ground. EIOPA, the European supervisory authority for insurance and pension funds, advised companies to maintain a very cautious and prudential approach in the distribution of dividends which will need to be discussed with local regulators.
Mps yields only 1,6%, half compared to the Ftse Mib, after the Finance Commission fully approved the rule on DTAs in extraordinary operations.
Generals -2,85%. According to Intermonte a coupon of 1,4 euro can be assumed. This figure implies the payment of the second tranche of the 2019 dividend, but in the light of Eiopa's prescription, there are some doubts. It is reasonable to assume a payment of the 2020 dividend in the first half of 2021 (about 0,9 euro) while the remainder will be in the second half of the year, once the capitalization conditions of the company and the sector have been verified.
UnipolSai (€0,16) -2,07%. The company could continue to pay a dividend in line with 2019, given the high solvency margin, around 280%, also thanks to the improvement that took place in 2020.
However, the situation for Unipol remains in doubt -3,12% where the financial situation is undoubtedly improving and solid but with a Solvency 2 ratio of around 170%. For Unipol we expect a return to the payment of the dividend even if it could be lower than what we currently estimate (€0,45), possibly in the €0,20/0,30 area.
Retract Stm -3,5%. Same drop for Tim. By the end of December, Enel -3,35% will send a letter to CDP to request the possible exercise of the pre-emption provided for by the agreements on Open Fiber. In the event of renunciation, the former monopolist would sit down with Macquarie, possibly to review the shareholder agreements and define the future governance of the post-merger group.
Thud in the morning for Mediaset dropped by -9%. The Alfa stock then recovered to -2,4%. The company expects to record a growth in advertising revenues in Italy of around 4% in the second half of 2020, compared to the same period of 2019. The same company reports it in a note. “In particular – in the last two months of the year there is an acceleration of growth around 6%-7%”.
