After the big leap, has the time to take profits already arrived? Not yet, judging by the rises in Asian lists, which are less exuberant than yesterday. The trend of futures on the S&P index, moreover, signals a slight decrease -0,3%, necessary to digest the jump forward at the beginning of the year. But the feeling that the worst may be over for a large part of the global economy is growing on the price lists.
However, Byron Wien, 79, one of Wall Street's legends who a year ago hit the rally in US price lists for 2012, does not think so. This time Wien, now Blackstone's strategist, sees a 2013 down both for the S&P (below 1.300, or -9%)) and for the European Stock Exchanges (-10%). On the contrary, it will be a good year for gold (1.900 an ounce) and, above all, for the Shanghai Stock Exchange (+20%)
In Tokyo, closed on Wednesday, the Nikkei index rose by 0,70%, Hong Kong by only 0,27%. But the good news keeps pouring in. This morning is the turn of the growth of the Chinese non-manufacturing activity index. Regional indices are at 17-month highs.
Confirming the euphoria that reigns in post-Congress China comes news from Macau: in December, the Las Vegas of the East broke casino takings records: 3,5 billion dollars in one month (+20%).
In short, 2013 began under the best auspices thanks to the definitive agreement between Republicans and Democrats to avoid the "fiscal cliff", a first step which, warns the Monetary Fund, "is not enough on its own". Not surprisingly, the triumphant day had its apotheosis on Wall Street, the scene of record increases: S&P500 +2,54%, Dow Jones +2,35, the Nasdaq even +3,07%.
The rise was unanimous almost everywhere. In Europe, in Frankfurt the Dax gains 2,2% and scores new highs since January 2008 at 7.778 points. Paris gained +2,6% recording new highs since July 2011, Madrid rose by +3,4% on the top since March, London +2,3%.
Milan was the best in the Old Continent with the FtseMib index up 3,8% to 16.893 points, a value it hadn't seen since March 27, 2012.
The 34-year BTP/Bund spread decreased by 282 basis points to 10 (minimum since March) for a yield on the 4,26-year BTP that falls to 2010%, a level not seen since November XNUMX.
The spread thus fell below the fateful target indicated by outgoing Prime Minister Mario Monti of 287 basis points, corresponding to halving compared to what was found on the day his executive took office (574). The "prophecy" of the governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, who in the darkest days of the crisis said that two fifths of the spread was linked to Italian problems, the rest to the risk of the end of the euro, is confirmed. Once the fear of the euro collapse has vanished, now the most difficult task begins: restoring competitiveness to the system with respect to its partners.
AMERICA
All the 30 blue chips of the Dow Jones and as many as 9 shares out of 10 of the securities that make up the S&P500 are up. They stand out Hewlett Packard +5% and Caterpillar + 4,4%. Bank of America [ +3%, drives the rise in the financial sector. The index of the main US banks rises by 2,3% on the maximum since July 2011. New and old glories of the new economy are highlighted.
Jp Morgan has revised upwards the target price of Facebook +5,2% to 35 from $29 with an 'overweight' rating. The popular social network has also been listed as an undercover stock by Cowen and Co with a 'neutral' rating, according to Theflyonthewall.com. Facebook stock gains 4%. Google + 1,8%.
Broker Raymond James reduced the target price by Apple Lossless Audio CODEC (ALAC), at $690 from $700, rated 'outperform'. But the stock gains 3,2% thanks to the announcement of a new series of iPhone 5, available in eight colours.
EUROPA
The suburbs are shining, the so-called safe havens are slowing down. The only downside stock market is Zurich -0,83%. Frankfurt placed 2-year bonds (the so-called Schatz) at a positive yield of 0,01% from -0,01% at the previous auction in early December. The news caused the yield on the secondary market to rebound to 0,031%, the highest since December 11 last year.
The selling also hit the 144-year German bund, which closed at 145,6 from 1 on Monday. Gold, another safe haven asset par excellence, rose by 1.690% to 0,32 dollars an ounce. By now, only the two-year bonds of Switzerland (-0,15%) and Denmark (-22%) remain in negative territory. The favorable tone is also extended to the other peripheral bonds: the Spanish spread drops by 12 basis points, the Greek spread by XNUMX basis points.
On the equity front in Europe, Nokia +6,8%, Inditex +3,9% and Volkswagen +4,07% shone.
ITALY
All the 40 blue chips of Piazza Affari ended the session with a marked increase, in particular the banks: Unicredit gained 3,9%, Understanding + 5,7% Pop. Milan + 2,9% B.Pop. Emilia Romagna + 6,3% Mount Paschi + 3,5% Mediobanca + 4,4%.
Asset management stocks also shone: Mediolanum + 3,2%Azimuth + 3,2% General Bank +1,6%. Among the insurance companies, Generali + 4,8% Fondiaria Sai + 3,4%Catholic + 9%.
Positive Impregile it +2,2%, while the takeover bid is being discussed again. Among industrial stocks, Fiat rose by 2,6%. Car sales data confirm that 2012 was a black year throughout Europe: Italy (1,4 million vehicles sold) goes back to 1979, Spain (700 units) and France (1,8. 2003 million, half of what was sold in XNUMX).
Finmeccanica + 3,4% StM +4,6%. Earnings also in the energy sector: Saipem + 4,5% Eni +3,5%. Brent crude rose by 1,2% to 112,39 dollars a barrel.
Enel + 3,8% A2A + 5,7%. Telecom Italy gained 2,7%, Mediaset +5,7%. Tail lights, so to speak, are among the blue chips Parmalat +1,2% and Terna +1,4%. positive Impregile it +2,2%, while the takeover bid is being discussed again. Going against the trend Sias -4,8%, leader of the Gavio group, after the negative indications that emerged from the tariff adjustments.
