The maneuvers of diplomacy intersect more and more with those of the financial markets in search of a key to understanding an absolutely unprecedented situation. But, beyond the war emergency, the gloomy forecasts on energy and the pandemic that bites again, especially in China, the engine is going. The PMI indices on the European economy show that, for now, the recession alarm is premature: requests for layoffs in the USA slip to their lowest since 1969. On a technical level, then, the managers' spring cleaning continues in view of the closure of the first quarter. In this context, a well-defined trend is struggling to establish itself.
China's stock markets are down, penalized by the trend of the pandemic, which has reached new records in Shanghai. Other Asia Pacific markets are mixed.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng loses almost 2%, Hang Seng Tech 3%. The general index closed the week with a gain of 0,5%, while the sectoral index containing the best-known names in Chinese high tech lost 0,8%. CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists -1,6% (-1,6% the weekly balance).
Washington exempts 352 Chinese products from tariffs
The great political maneuvers favor the first, timid signs of a thaw between Washington and Beijing. The US, which is pressuring Xi not to support Putin, has renewed the exemption from duties for 352 products imported from China. The decision was announced last night by US Trade Representative Katherine Tai.
On parity the Nikkei of Tokyo, which is about to close another week of strong gains: +4,9% this one, +6,6% the previous one. Seoul's Kospi is also close to parity (+1% per week). Sydney's S&P ASX200 +0,3% (+1,5%). BSE Sensex -0,3% (+1%).
The yen is at its lowest level against the dollar since 2015
The rise of the dollar slowed down this morning, supported in recent days by the prospect of an acceleration of the Fed's tightening. The US currency touched 122,40 against the yen, at its lowest since 2015.
During a hearing in parliament, the governor of the central bank, Haruhiko Kuroda, said that the weakness of the currency is desirable because it helps the economy. Société Générale expects the yen's decline to continue in the coming months. The euro appreciated this morning against the dollar to 1,103.
US futures flat, oil down
Wall Street futures are little moved after a strong recovery session that coincided with a slowdown in oil and the appreciation of technology stocks. The Nasdaq closed up 1,9%, the S&P500 up 1,4%, the Dow Jones +1%. The march of T bond yields continues: the 2,360-year bond reaches 2,320 from XNUMX%.
Slight drop in oil: Wti at 112 dollars a barrel (yesterday -2,2% at the close). Brent at $118. Gold at $1.960, unchanged.
Bitcoin on the highs of the last three weeks at $44.000. According to Lawrence Fink, the sanctions against Russia are set to help expand the use of cryptocurrencies in international transactions. That wasn't Fink's only prediction: "War has put an end to the globalization we've been living through for the last three decades," said the most powerful manager on the planet.
S&P: the eurozone will slow down by 1,2% in 2022
Standard & Poor's last night cut global growth for this year to 3,4%, 70 basis points from previous estimates. “Europe – explains the agency – will be hit hardest by the economic effects of the military conflict and we expect the Eurozone to decline by 1,2% from our previous forecast, expanding to 3,2% this year, due to its exposure to Russia and the rising cost of energy imports”.
Europe is therefore slowing down, but not too much judging by the PMI indices, which are better than expected. "There won't be a recession for a long time", assures Mario Centeno, a member of the ECB, despite inflation which will remain above the 2% target. “And for quite some time,” even into 2023, even if crude oil prices stop rising, said number two Supervisory Board member of the Frankfurt Executive Board, Frank Elderson. However, the objective of price stability "remains unshakeable" he added.
Yields on Bunds and BTPs are at their highest since 2018
The words of the European bankers have favored the race to increase the yields of government bonds in line with the US T-bonds.
The 2018-year Bund soars to a record high since the end of 0,532, reaching 2015%. Record rates since 0,193 for two-year Schatz (-0,258%) and five-year Bobl (XNUMX%) rates.
The Italian ten-year June 2032 also pays 2,05%, the highest yield since the end of 2018, the two-year the highest since 2015.
The spread closes at 152 points.
Piazza Affari the best Stock Exchange. Moscow reopens in half
Piazza Affari is the best and rises by 0,42% to 24.470 points thanks above all to Tim's sprint. The other squares are mixed: London +0,1%; Paris -0,39%, Madrid -0,24% and Amsterdam -0,13% lost; Frankfurt is neutral.
Moscow at the reopening after the long closure, scores an extension of 4,37% due to the cash obligation, the long list of suspended securities (17 out of 50) and the absence of foreign operators on house securities. the trading of shares not included in the IMOEX reference index and of corporate bonds and Eurobonds will resume. This was announced by the Russian central bank.
US partners for Chelsea: 3 billion pounds for Abramovich
The first clamorous sale of the oligarchs is looming. According to Financial Times a group of US investors, led by Todd Boelhy, owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers (baseball) and by a private equity firm that controls the Philadelphia 76'ers. is the favorite for the purchase of control of Romano Abramovitch's Chelsea: the operation it should close on a valuation of 3 billion cash. The US consortium had the media on the Saudi Media offer. The political support assured by Daniel Finkelkraut, political commentator for the Times, was decisive.
A week end full of appointments is looming for Piazza Affari.
Fireworks on Tim, still at sale prices
Spotlights still on Tim: +8,4% at 0,326 euros, much less than the price (0,50 euros) that a few months ago Kkr seemed ready to offer. The US fund reiterated its interest in 100% of the Italian company but asked to conduct the due diligence in the company. In the meantime, other competitors interested in part of the former incumbent are joining forces. At the basis of the interest, however, is probably the discount quotation: -25% since January.
Generali, the challengers are showing up today
The curtain rises today on the list for the new board of Generali lined up by Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone. The plans and strategy will be presented by Claudio Costamagna, the challenger president, and Luciano Cirinà who competes against Philippe Donnet. the title +1% extended the positive streak by nine sessions. Since March 7, 124 million units have been traded, approximately 7% of the capital.
Saipem, 2 billion coming from Eni and Cdp.
The capital increase to be carried out between September and October will be two billion. This is what was agreed by the two major shareholders, Eni and Cdp, in view of the presentation of the business plan to the market. The increase will go to repay the €1,5 billion bridging loan that will allow the company to repay the €500 million bonds due in April.
Exor returns to profit: 328 million more from Partner Re
Test on the stock exchange for the accounts of Exor which collects 328 million more than what was announced for the sale of Partner Re. The holding closed 2021 with a profit of more than 1,7 billion euros, recovering the loss of 20 million with momentum recorded in 2020. As at 31 December last year, the net asset value stood at 31,1 billion, up by 29,7% compared to 2020.
