The Italian markets have undergone numerous jolts in recent months: the uncertain political scenario was only the tip of the iceberg. According to Alessandro Tentori, Investment Director of AXA Investment Management Italia, in fact, even during the summer "the period of uncertainty on the markets will continue, relating both to the actual duration of an economic cycle that appears mature in the United States, and to the sustainability of growth of the Eurozone in a scenario of global slowdown”. These fears continue, says Tentori – “despite a stabilization of economic fundamentals after a slowdown in the first half of the year”.
Negative implications were highlighted above all in the second quarter following a marked – and to some extent unexpected – increase in country risk, as well as a correction in leading economic indicators. For example, the PMI dropped from 59 in January to 53 in May, still settling around the long-term historical averages, confirms Tentori.
Although at the moment the country risk does not influence the decisions and investment plans of companies, it is also true that the prolongation of this phase of uncertainty could damage the economic aggregates, thus slowing growth beyond expectations in 2019.
According to the investment management company, "the country's economic picture is placed in a solid global economy, which despite the various risk outbreaks is expected to grow by 3,9% during 2018".
According to AXA forecasts, Tentori reports, "growth in Italian GDP is estimated to be slightly above the consensus of analysts, both for this year (1.5%) and for 2019 (1.4%)". Italy's fate is hand-in-hand with that of all the member countries of the European Union: “It must necessarily be pointed out that these important issues are not a peculiarity of the Italian economy, but are rather shared by various member countries of the Union”, concludes Tentori.
