The possibility of an agreement on tariffs between Europe and China and the hope of a more accommodating monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic offer today Bags the right push for a rising session, even if volatility remains lurking, in view of important political appointments and macro data that could guide the Fed's choices.
Europe on the rise, led by Milan
European stock markets begin the week with solid gains starting from Business Square, +1,58% (33.834 basis points), which is the best, despite the coupon detachment from seven big names which weighs on the index by 0,26%.
In the rest of Europe they are tonic Paris + 1,03% Madrid + 1,28% Frankfurt + 0,81% London + 0,56%.
Today's risk appetite was not affected by the surprise drop in confidence businesses in Germany, with the Ifo index falling to 88,6 points in June from 89,3 in May and estimates at 89,6.
Leading the rises in the region is the auto sector, after the European Union and Beijing agreed to hold talks on the planned imposition of duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles.
The banking sector is also highlighted, starting from the Italian one which always sees the spotlight on Ps (+ 4,01%).
Wall Street mixed, Nvidia retreats
The session of Wall Street appears two-faced at the end of the morning. Runs the Dow Jones (+0,91%), while the Nasdaq (-0,18%) and trades in the red Nvidia (-5,1%) stock that began to reverse course last week, after briefly conquering the record of the most capitalized company ahead of Microsoft and Apple.
Markets and politics in the foreground
The week promises to be full of unknowns, with markets paying attention to important political appointments.
In particular, on Thursday in the USA there will be the first face-to-face meeting between the candidates for the November presidential elections, Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The virtual ring will be set up by CNN in Atlanta, but the debate can also be followed in Italy on Nove.
In Europe, however, on Sunday we vote for the first round in France and Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National and her allies appear firmly in the lead in the first round. A situation from which a new euro crisis could arise, as the Financial Times also writes today. At the moment, however, the single currency is moving positively against the dollar and is trading above 1,07.
In Italy it is in its final stages count of the ballots in the 105 Municipalities in which voting took place. The centre-left should have won in the five regional capitals, but the disaffection with the vote is confirmed with turnout below 50%.
As regards macroeconomic data, those oninflation in the euro area and in the USA. There will be a glimpse of price action across the bloc on Friday with the first June numbers in Italy, France and Spain. Also on Friday, the price index of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Federal Reserve's preferred indicator for measuring inflation, will also be released.
Market participants still expect around two rate cuts this year, with a 60,4% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September, Reuters writes.
Piazza Affari, everyone is crazy about the banks; Telecom on the rise, network transfer on July 1st
The market savors the reorganization in the banking sector and rewards the stocks of the sector starting from those that could be the protagonists of a new season of aggregations. They dominate the Ftse Mib from above today Bper (+ 4,99%), Ps e Popular of Sondrio (+3,98%), on which the greatest expectations are concentrated. The pivot of the operation, in view of the gradual exit of the Treasury from Siena, would be Unipol (+1,19%), main shareholder of the Modena bank and Popolare di Sondrio with a share of approximately 20% in both. Carlo Cimbri, president of the giant in via Stalingrado in Bologna, limits expectations: "there is nothing in the immediate future of Bper - he replies to reporters on the sidelines of an event - certainly the Italian market is small, the candidates are few and names that are always going around, but there is nothing with which I can enrich the debate". And again: "The new CEO Gianni Franco Papa has an already outlined path ahead of him which concerns Bper as it is". Mf observes that, according to simulations carried out in some investment banks, Unipol could take over 10% of Siena's capital and take over from Axa as the bank's insurance partner.
A brilliant session closes in the sector Unicredit + 3,85%.
The automotive sector is celebrating signs of detente with China starting from Pirelli + 3,1%.
It is among the best blue chips of the day Telecom +3,03%. There The date for the sale of the landline to KKR would be July 1st, the day on which the telephone company should complete the sale of NetCo to Optics BidCo. The deal is worth up to 22 billion euros ($23,6 billion) and is aimed at reducing Tim's debt and reviving the struggling former telephone monopoly.
There are few big caps that are down slightly today. It's about Hera -0,61% stm -0,41% Campari -0,4% Italgas -0,13% Getting very -0.08%.
The multiutility is among the seven blue chips at ex-dividend date, together with STM, Leonardo (+ 0,45%), Pirelli, Italian Post Office (+ 0,29%), Snam (flat) e Terna (+ 0,7%).
The highest check is that of Poste Italiane which today paid the balance of the dividend relating to the 2023 results for a total amount of approximately 730 million euros and a unit coupon of 0,563 euros (0,8 euros the total considering the advance already paid).
Outside the main basket it closes in orbit Fincantieri, +23,92%, on the first day of the capital increase, with investors adjusting their positions in light of the 400 million recapitalization (+100 million in warrants) aimed at the acquisition of Uas (formerly Wass) from Leonardo .
Declining spreads and yields
The session on the secondary market for the Italian paper also ends in green: lo spread between ten-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration it falls to 149 basis points. The yield of the Italian bond also fell, indicated at the end at 3,92%, compared to 2,42% of the German bond.
