The central bank effect continues to weigh down stock markets and bonds. After yesterday's collapse, the continental price lists are trying to contain the damage, but only Milan has succeeded, but yesterday was the worst. Also thanks to the four witches, the session closed in the red for the other stock exchanges, conditioned by worries about the possible economic recession that awaits Europe in 2023.
The closure of the European stock exchanges
The fears about monetary tightening by the ECB and the Fed and the tones used by their respective presidents are compounded by the volatility triggered by the 4 witches, i.e. by maturities on stock indexes, single shares, options on indices and shares. The result is a Europe once again in the red, but this time in Milan it is a little less intense.
Business Square it is saved thanks to the exploits of Azimut and the good humor of the banks. At the end of the run, the price list marks -0,16% at 23.688 points. It's worse at the other European Stock Exchanges: Amsterdam (-0,98%), Frankfurt (-0,69%), Madrid (-1,13%), Paris (-0,98%). Outside the European Union it is also strongly negative London (-1,15%).
Wall Street is also in the red
The mood is also negative overseas. In the aftermath of the worst session in three months for the Dow Jones, all three main lists of the American Stock Exchange lose more than 1% of their value. Three titles highlighted:
- Adobe, which gains 6,4% after communicating earnings above expectations and revenues in line with forecasts. The company also issued positive guidance for the current quarter;
- Meta (+4,6%) thanks to an upgrade from JP Morgan Securities, justified by a number of factors, including greater cost control and a reduction in the impact of Apple's privacy rules;
- Maxar Technologies which rose by 120%, after the news that the operator and owner of a satellite network will be acquired by Advent International; including debt, the deal is worth $6,4 billion.
It's flat Netflix after yesterday's crash. A report from Digiday said the streaming company offered to reimburse advertisers after it missed viewership targets.
From a macro perspective, in the United States, retail sales fell by 0,6%, recording the worst figure in almost a year. Industrial production was also down, down by 0,2%.
In Milan, Saipem is booming, the banks are on the rise
In Piazza Affari it is the day of Azimuth, tops the Ftse Mib with an increase of 6%. The company has announced a commercial agreement with unicredit (+1,77%) for the distribution of new asset management products. It also trails Finecobank (+ 2,57%).
The mood of the other banks is positive: Intesa Sanpaolo (+ 3,19%), Bpm bank (+ 1,75%).
Outside the Ftse Mib he also shines Fincantieri (+1,5%) which today presented the new business plan.
The worst title is instead Diasorin (-3,68%) Negative utilities waiting for an agreement on the price cap: A2a (-2,16%), Erg (-1,8%), Ivy (-2,33%), Italgas (-2,1%). Also in red nexi (-2,13%) And Inwit (-2,55%).
Telecom Italy sells 1% after the first meeting of the government with the French Vivendi and Cdp on the future of the telecommunications company.
The spread rises, yields soar, gas prices plummet
Christine Lagarde's hawkish words also heavily affect bonds and currencies.
Keep going up it spread between 192-year BTPs and Bunds. On Wednesday the differential was 213 basis points, today it is at 4 (+207% compared to 4,29 points on Thursday). Ten-year bond yields rose sharply to 4,15% from yesterday's XNUMX%.
I returns 4,29-year bonds have shot up: they are indicated at 4,15% (from 3,85% on the day before) while they were at XNUMX% on Wednesday.
On the foreign exchange market, the euro is stable at 1,0617 dollars, after having touched the threshold of 1,07 against the dollar.
Prices are going down Petroleum: WTI for January delivery trades at 73,78 dollars (-3,05%) and February Brent at 79,05 dollars (-2,66%). Today, the EU Council adopted the ninth package of sanctions aimed at intensifying the pressure on Russia and its government for the aggression against Ukraine. Among the new measures are additional controls and restrictions on exports and the freezing of assets against two other Russian banks with the addition of the Russian Regional Development Bank to the list of entities owned or controlled by the Russian state subject to a total prohibition of transactions.
Prices continue to fall gas in view of the white smoke on the European price cap: in Amsterdam the price is below 117 euros per mwH, down by 14,8%.
Bank of Italy forecasts on GDP and inflation
The Bank of Italy has revised upwards the forecasts for the growth of the Italian economy, bringing 2022 to +3,8% and 2023 to 0,4% against respectively +3,3% and +0,3% of the estimates of October. This can be read in the new macro projections for Italy included in the staff projections of the euro area that the ECB published yesterday. The baseline scenario envisages that “in line with the signals of the high-frequency indicators, GDP weakens in the current quarter and in the next; economic activity will gradually return to growth starting next spring and will accelerate from 2024” thanks to the easing of inflationary tensions. The estimates are part of the main scenario, characterized by “exceptionally high uncertainty” and with downside risks.
The inflation estimates for the three-year period 2022-2034 have also been revised. Consumer prices will settle at 8,8% in 2022, to then drop to 7,3% in 2023 and 2,6% in 2024.
