The new signs of weakness of the German economy and the flare of oil, seen on the eve, fueled today ared wave on European markets, which swelled in the afternoon, especially in Milan, with the weak start of Wall Street, just a few hours after the publication of the Beige Book from which new indications on the Fed's next moves could arrive.
Business Square is in the black jersey and closes with a resounding loss of 1,54%, falling to 28.211 basis points, due to sales on banks, starting from Montepaschi (-5,64%) which seems to be in difficulty on the board of the new Risk in the sector.
Losses are smaller a Madrid -0,77% Paris -0,84% Frankfurt -0,19% London -0,16% Amsterdam -0,22%.
Il crude takes a breath and slightly decreases (Brent 89,94% dollars a barrel, -0,1%), after yesterday exceeding 90 dollars due to the cuts extended until the end of the year by Saudi Arabia and Russia, which rekindled the fears about inflation as the September meetings of the ECB and the Fed approach.
In this phase the ascent continues dollar, while the 'euro remains close to a change of 1,07.
Tensions are registered on government bonds on both sides of the Atlantic.
No conciliatory signal from the ECB, while orders from German factories are falling. The OECD supports Lagarde
In this context one could perhaps speak of fear of stagflation by investors, with an economy slowing down and inflation that could pick up again without ever really folding.
Today, new orders in the world can contribute to fueling this reading manufacturing sector in Germany, which fell by 11,7% in July according to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), while cuts in oil production are fueling fears of a recovery in energy prices.
On the subject of central banks today the Bank of Canada decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 5%, the level to which they had been raised at the previous meeting and which had not been reached for 22 years, while the Central Bank of Poland decided to lower the main reference rate to 6% from the previous 6,75%.
From the front ECB the latest statements before the pre-meeting press blackout (September 14), are not encouraging. According to the Slovakian governor Peter Kazimir, interest rates should be raised next week, perhaps for the last time. For the governor of the Netherlands Klaas Knot "The rise is a possibility, not a certainty", but "the achievement of the 2% inflation target at the end of 2025 is the bare minimum to be achieved". The French governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau is convinced "that we are close or very close to the maximum point of interest rates". According to the number one of the Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco the ECB is now close to the level at which to stop the increase in rates.
THEOECD stands with Christine Lagarde: even if higher interest rates are amplifying financial vulnerabilities – he argues – and “begin to weigh on the economy”, monetary policy (largely appropriate) “must reduce inflation in the long term” and the fiscal policies of the States “ must become sufficiently restrictive”.
Yields rise in Euroland
In this context, yields on the secondary rise and the Italian paper does not shine. The spread between the Italian and German 174-year bond it rises to 1,61 basis points (+4,39%) and rates continue to grow. The Btp is indicated at +4,32% (from 2,65% yesterday) and the Bund rises to 2,6% (from XNUMX%).
Piazza Affari, Unipol's move shakes the banks
Banks are the boulder that today throws down Business Square. The news that the group contributes to triggering the new earthquake Unipol (-0,71%) targeted Banca Popolare di Sondrio (+ 1,92%). Unipolsai (-0,09%) indeed asked ECB authorization to rise to 19,9% in the bank's capital, of which it already holds 9,5%. A move that could herald a marriage with Bper (-3,6%), of which Unipolsai is the reference shareholder. The latter would thus fall out of the list of possible candidates for a union with Mps Bank, which for now has not found any useful interlocutors either in Bpm bank (-3,09%) nor in Unicredit (-4,99%). The weakness in the sector is contagious Understanding (-2,25%).
Among the worst blue chips of the day there is also Moncler (-4,97%), which remains alarmed by the trend of the Chinese economy.
The few blue chips on the upside are Leonardo + 0,99% Pirelli + 0,36% Prysmian + 0,11% stellantis + 0,08%.
