Jerome Powell tried Friday to slow down the momentum of the financial markets, now convinced that the rate cut is a matter of a few months. The Fed's move has, for now, contained the rise in stock prices, awaiting the data on positive employment at the end of the week. But profit-taking on bonds, at the end of a stellar week, did not slow down the trend Bitcoin, which jumped above 40 thousand dollars, and above all the gold rush which during the night surpassed the historical record at $2.211 an ounce.
Central banks are also pushing gold
But driving the boom in the yellow metal, favored by the drop in rates, is above all theattitude of central banks who, since August, have purchased 800 tons of gold: lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield gold.
China, bailout tests for real estate
The advance of gold coincided with the boom on the Indian Stock Exchange, the country most sensitive to the appeal of the yellow metal. To push upwards Mumbai +1,2%, a new absolute record, was the success of the ruling party BJP dominated the elections held yesterday in four important states in India.
The. also advances Vietnam : on Wednesday Sam Altman, back at the helm of Open Ai, will participate in the Investment day of Vimfast, the automotive group from Hanoi which is rapidly growing in the USA.
Much less euphoric there Japanese stock exchange -0,6% and the Chinese ones, Ad Hong Kong -0,6% the decision on the liquidation of was postponed to the end of January China Evergrande +10% in the hope of a rescue at the last minute.
Le European stock exchanges, supported by the positive finish on Wall Street, open on the rise. EuroStoxx50 futures mark +0,2%.
Index on Friday Ftse Eb of Milan rose by 0,6%. During the week the increase was 1,1% to 29.928 points, the new high for 15 years.
Today Lagarde speaks. It's the last time before the ECB
The president of the ECB is in Paris today Christine Lagarde he will speak for the last time before the December 14 monetary meeting. Any decisions, which will be announced next week, will be influenced by the data on industrial production expected on Thursday, which will provide information on growth in the fourth quarter, and, on Tuesday, the consumer survey on inflation expectations.
Fantastic week for the government bonds, dragged by the growing belief that the darkest period of inflation is behind us. The TXNUMX-year US Treasury rose +2%, with the yield falling to 4,19%, the lowest since August. It was the best week since March. Two-year Treasury at 4,53%, the lowest since June. German 2,2-year Bund + 2,36%, with the yield falling to 2,2%, the lowest since July. Ten-year BTP +4,09%, with the yield falling to XNUMX%, the lowest since August.
Fitch upgrades Greece to BBB stable
Eurozone: good news for the common currency. Fitch raised Greece's credit rating to BBB- with stable outlook. Thanks to this intervention, Greece has returned to 'investment grade', i.e. the category of the most reliable investments. Fitch expects that the Greece's debt will fall to 160,8% of GDP this year, rising to 141,2% in 2027. Athens “remains strongly committed to fiscal consolidation, with the primary surplus expected to rise to 1,1% of GDP in 2023,” it says Fitch underlining that Greek growth is expected at +2,4% in 2023.
New highs also on Wall Street
Le main bags they arrived at fifth positive week below, heartened by the latest indications of a sharp slowdown in inflation. L'MSCI World index (3.040) grew by +0,85%. Wall Street hit new 2023 highs. Dow Jones + 0,8%. S & P500 +0,6%. Futures are down slightly.
Friday night Jerome Powell attempted to dampen enthusiasm about a short-term interest rate cut, perhaps as early as March. “It would be premature to come to the firm conclusion that we have sufficiently restrictive monetary policy, or to speculate on when there might be easing,” the Fed chair said. “We are in no hurry now as we have already moved quickly and forcefully.” . Now we have the opportunity to move with caution,” explained the banker. The cautious approach seems to indicate that for the next meeting on 12-13 December, interest rates will remain at the highest levels for 22 years in a range between 5,25% and 5,5%.
Futures are pricing in a better than 90% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged when it meets in December, and a better than 60% chance that the bank will start cutting rates by March 2024.
Only oil suffers. Gas at two-year lows
The rise does not involve the Petroleum fresh from its sixth consecutive negative week (-2%) due to investor skepticism regarding the depth of production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, together called OPEC+, and to concern about the slowdown in manufacturing activity globally.
Il EU gas (Amsterdam) closed on Friday at 43,50 euros/mwh, around the lows of the last two years. Demand remained weak for all operators, due to an average mild climate and less than exciting industrial demand. Moreover, global supply is improving after the end of maintenance of a Qatargas plant and the Australian plant
The new Panda produced in Serbia. EU funds for Enel and Snam
Tomorrow will begin discussion panel between stellantis and government Italian. The goal is to increase up to one million pieces there Italian produzione today stops at 450 thousand pieces approximately. Meanwhile. The group has announced that the next generation of the Fiat Panda it will be electric and produced in the Serbian factory of Kragujevac, Jefferies reduces the target price to 25 euros. Car registrations in Italy in November amounted to 139.278 units, with a growth of 16,19% on the same month of 2022. The Stellantis group recorded an increase of 10,62% with a market share of 29,31 %.
Mount Paschi: according to rumors, the third quarter should close with a net result of more than 1,2 billion euros.
Banco BPM: CEO Castagna spoke at a public event over the weekend. In the speeches preceding the presentation of the new industrial plan, the number one is placing the emphasis on universal banking services, with little strategic indications.
Terna, Enel, Snam: the three subsidiaries of the Treasury should receive over 1,8 billion euros from the European energy transition fund REPowerEu, with 840 million euros for Terna, over 570 million euros for Enel and 420 million euros for Snam. This was reported in an article in Il Sole 24 Ore on Sunday.
Tod’s: Matteo Tamburini is the new creative director of the Women's and Men's collections of the Tod's brand.
Eni announced its membership of the Oil&Gas Decarbonisation Accelerator, a platform launched by the COP28 Presidency to demonstrate the contribution of the Oil&Gas industry to the decarbonisation process.
Piaggio: in November, registrations of two-wheeled vehicles rose by 3%.
