Inflation falls more than expected, but the specter of stagnation looms in Europe. This, at least in theory, means that the ECB will have to start soon cut rates to avoid a prolonged period of inflation below the target, but the turning point still seems distant. Much will depend on the mood of the person Fedin meeting today and tomorrow. It is taken for granted that the US central bank will not touch the cost of money, but that the president will tomorrow Jerome Powell he will reiterate that rates must still remain high, leaving the door open to possible increases between December and January. Behind this rhetoric, however, the markets are already looking forward to X. Hence a wave of optimism at the end of an October that was nevertheless tinged with red.
Piazza Affari recovers, Stellantis overcomes US strikes
• The stock exchanges of Europe Futures of the EuroStoxx50 index should open higher +0,4% as well as the German Dax.
• Yesterday on FtseMib of Milan it closed with a gain of 1,5%. Piazza Affari was the queen in Europe, recovering a good part of this month's losses and returning close to 28 thousand basis points (27.741).
• In evidence stellantis: revenues increased by 7% compared to the third quarter of 2022, despite the price paid to the labor dispute in the USA. Bernstein upgrades the stock to Outperform.
• The British energy giant BP reported a sharp year-over-year profit decline in the third quarter
• Tenaris stands out among today's quarterly reports.
The drop in prices greets governor Panetta
• Today Fabio Panetta begins his mandate at the helm of Bank of Italy. The success of the fight againstinflation: in October, the rise in Eurozone prices slowed to 2,9% from 4,3% in September. Inflation also fell sharply in Italy in October: +1,8% on an annual basis, compared to +5,3% in September
• The other side of the coin is the negative growth in Europe in the third quarter: the gross domestic product scored -0,1%. For Italy, zero growth in the third quarter: GDP remained stationary both compared to the previous quarter and to the third quarter of 2022. The acquired change in GDP for 2023 is equal to +0,7%
• Bunds start again at 2,80%. BTP at 4,72%. There are no relevant macroeconomic data coming out in Europe.
Black October for Tesla. Only Amazon and Microsoft are rising
• All attention is on United States. Apart from communications from the Federal Reserve, which should confirm interest rates at current levels. The data is there on employment andISM manufacturing index of October.
• Yesterday at Wall Street the Nasdaq closed up by 0,5%, -2,8% for the month.
• Among the magnificent seven of the Nasdaq 100, Tesla it lost 20,5% in October and is 33,5% below its 52-week highs. Nvidia it fell by more than 7% in October, -20% from the highs at the end of August. Alphabet -5,8% in October and -12,7% from the peak in mid-October. Apple -1% in October, -14% compared to mid-July highs. Meta Platforms is approximately at the levels of the end of September, -9% compared to the highs of mid-October. Positive monthly balance only for Microsoft +6,8% and Amazon +4,4%.
• Treasury notes ten-year rate of return at 4,92%, from 4,87% yesterday.
Weak yen supports Tokyo, central bank intervenes
Strongly rising this morning Tokyo Stock Exchange +2%. After the decisions of Bank of Japan, which has not changed the ultra-expansive policy of zero-cost money, the shares of the companies most favored by the current monetary policy regime rise. Among these figure Toyota which raised its profit estimates for the financial year which should close with profits of around 27 billion dollars. The counterweight to the confirmation of negative rates is the weakness of the yen, the cross lost 1,7% yesterday, one of the largest daily changes this year. The exchange rate reached the highs of the last year again at 151,5.
Tonight the statements of Masato Kanda, the top public administration manager in charge of following the yen, brought the currency back up.
China, the crisis continues. South Korea restarts
The bag of Shanghai is slightly up and the Hong Kong stock market loses 0,3%. Caixin's Manufacturing PMI index shows that a major part of China's economic activity is contracting, the index fell to 49,5 from 50,6. The data confirms that the economic situation is deteriorating despite the many attempts by the central authorities to revive it. The Seoul stock exchange gained 0,9%. South Korea's exports increased for the first time since the beginning of the year, an indication that global demand is recovering. In October, exports increased by 5,1% compared to the previous year.
Oil in settlement. In Gaza there is house-to-house fighting
• Brent oil and WTI settling after two days of significant declines.
• South of Gaza City, Israeli troops are still trying to cut Gaza's main highway and the parallel road along the Mediterranean coast. Some witnesses report this, according to the Guardian. The Israeli army then published photos of the ongoing ground operation on Telegram.
Jp Morgan promotes STM, new offers for Nexi
Today the markets are examining the accounts of Iveco. The third quarter closed with an adjusted net profit of 84 million euros, up by 54 million compared to the third quarter of 2022, and an adjusted diluted earnings per share increasing to 0,28 euros. Guidance for 2023 revised upwards for the third time. The company also increased its industrial business investment estimates to +20%. The next Capital Markets Day will be held on March 14, 2024.
Stm. Morgan Stanley raises the recommendation to Overweight, target price at 48 euros. Bernstein lowers the target price to 50 euros.
In bondage. JP Morgan cuts the target price to 8,8 euros. The Silver Lake fund is also looking at the Nexi dossier.
Avanza Iren. The management board of Egea, a multi-utility from Alba, accepted Iren's binding offer, with the consequent start of exclusive negotiations between the parties. From 1 January 2024, the Sienambiente company will be consolidated into the group for accounting purposes (40% share of the share capital held by Iren through the Iren Ambiente Toscana company) and will therefore be able to count on the synergies and resources of the group to carry forward the industrial plan.
Banca Ifis, Mediobanca. The long-term partnership signed last May for the management of non-performing loans (NPLs) has been finalized. In particular, Banca Ifis has completed the purchase from the Mediobanca Group, for a consideration of 100 million euros, of Revalea, a company created in 2022 from the spin-off of NPLs deriving from the acquisition of bad loan portfolios with a gross book value of 6,5. 1 billionXNUMX euros.
