Electric car, natural gas, self-driving. Mobility has entered a profound transition: will we have less suffocating cities, less polluting transport? Will it be electric and digital? “As in all technological evolutions, the ultimate goal for the automotive sector is to make people feel better. But for this to happen we must not underestimate the complexity of these changes from an industrial, technological, occupational and training point of view. Massive investments will be needed in the coming years between now and 2030: this will lead to a further selection of companies and employment in a key sector of our economy. This is why we think it is necessary to carefully and gradually examine the steps to be taken to achieve the decarbonisation objectives, requested by the European Union, on which we all agree. The important thing is to avoid creating more damage than we would like to solve”.
The key word for Alberto Bombassei is the word gradualism. The horizon is 2030, the objectives are those of the Mobility Package recently released by the EU which sets a 30% cut in CO2 emissions for car manufacturers. Pragmatic, down-to-earth, founder and president of Brembo, one of the excellences of Made in Italy for the disc brake systems and systems with which it supplies car manufacturers all over the world (also in Formula 1), Bombassei also has the gaze of a politician, both for the important positions he held in Confindustria and because he was elected deputy (with Civic Choice, now in the Mixed Group) in the Parliament which has now reached the end of its term. FIRSTonline asked him to speak on the prospects, news, changes taking place in the automotive sector on a global level just as in Italy Enel accelerates nationally for charging stations e Sergio Marchionne of FCA warns about the cost of the green car ride. Here's what he replied.
Engineer, electric car yes, no or ni? This is where the achievement of the European objectives for cutting CO2 in transport passes. Is Italian industry able to take up the challenge?
“We certainly live in a period of great change. All sectors are attentive to the issue of decarbonising the atmosphere and although the automotive industry affects relatively little of the total CO2 emissions attributable to human activity, we are talking about 9% for cars and motorbikes and 8% for heavy vehicles, much attention is focused on the CO2 produced by combustion engines rather than, for example, on the problem of fine particles. And even with regard to CO2, which is certainly a global problem, we often limit ourselves to one part of the problem. Let me give you a concrete example: a Tesla becomes competitive with a petrol car only after traveling 100.000 kilometers because the upstream electricity production mix is still heavily influenced by fossil fuels. By 2030, the new European rules will impose huge investments on the industry, both for cars and components. He will struggle to reach them, but he can do it. The problem is the intermediate stages, the impact they will have on employment, the transfer of wealth that we risk donating to Asia and China in particular: they are currently in control of the lithium battery technology”.
The decarbonisation upstream of electricity production is already very advanced in Europe, coal will be banned from 2025. It is a fact that cities are asphyxiating and that Dieselgate has created distrust of the possibilities of traditional engines to contain CO2 and dust emissions. But what are the pitfalls you see in the transition to electric?
“From a technological point of view, it must be clear that among the 50 most important world producers of lithium batteries there is no European and that 80% of production is concentrated in Asia. Panasonic alone or through licenses has 30% of the world market. Accelerating electrification means building plants such as Tesla's Giga Factory in Nevada or transferring important resources to Asian countries and essentially surrendering to Chinese competition, with all that follows. The higher the outlay that industries will have to transfer abroad for batteries, the fewer resources they will be able to invest in the development of autonomous technology. The proposal launched by the vice president of the Commission, Maros Sefcovic, for an "Airbus of batteries" in Europe is appreciable, but it takes time. This is why it is necessary to examine the issues in a non-ideological way and with prudence".
You spoke of implications for employment…
"Exactly. The industry that produces vehicles and components represents about 5% of the national GDP. Mobility accounts for more than 10%. It is a wealth that we must maintain and pass on to the new generations, bearing in mind that one employee out of three in European mobility is linked to the heat engine. How to reposition them on the new production of electric cars that Europe is now starting to put in the pipeline? I think above all of Italy. The social impact of the transition from the old to the new system can be significant and that's what worries me the most from a political point of view: skills are at risk. There will be change but first we have to train new jobs, adapt schools and universities, transfer employment from the old to the new system. The 2018 Budget Law allocated 10 million to the training system linked to the advancement of innovation in general. They are certainly not enough but it is still a sign that the problem has been taken care of; I hope they can double. And look, I'm not talking about it "pro domo mea", I would like to underline this, since brakes and tires are sectors that will not be affected by these changes".
I understand the reasoning but it would be like saying: let's slow down the race until we are ready. In the meantime, the others go ahead and the desire to be a model for everyone in the fight against pollution is one of the strengths of the Union, especially after the signing of the Cop 21.
“It is not a question of giving up and the goal of electrifying transport is a line that has now been traced: there is no turning back. Timing, however, is not irrelevant, especially in the intermediate stages: the target of cutting CO2 emissions from fleets by 30% by 2030, as I was saying, is very onerous for industries but achievable. The intermediate objective, which envisages a 15% cut in emissions by 2025, concretely concentrates 2 thirds of the efforts over the first 5 years. It's a very steep curve, more caution is needed. ”.
Sergio Marchionne recently said that producing an electric 500 costs FCA a loss of 20.000 dollars, but all the other industries, from Volvo to Daimler to Volkswagen to the French PSA, have announced new electric models for 2018: one is expected fifty arriving on the market. Is a contraction of margins in the initial phase of new productions to be taken into account or not?
“I don't go into individual company policies and it is foreseeable that FCA will have to enter the electric market, it has the means to do so. But the need to balance costs is real and when we talk about costs we should also take into account infrastructure costs, the installation of charging stations in homes and offices, the digitization of the electricity grid. This is why it is good to think in global terms, aim for European coordination and keep all possibilities open".
Are you referring to methane cars? Is there room for both?
“Certainly, we have to think in terms of technological neutrality: electric and natural gas cars can exist together. In Japan, billions are being invested in hydrogen cell cars. It's time to end the opposition and try to buy fewer batteries as long as they cost from 4 to 7 thousand dollars for an intermediate car, such as the Zoe or Tesla Model 3, and until there are European ones. We ask Europe for coordination, interchangeability of charging standards and competitive legislation, not to give up on ambitious goals”.
One last question: the other great revolution to come will be that of the driverless car. The map of producers will change, new ones will arrive, Google in the lead. What scenarios do you anticipate?
“Cars already incorporate a high content of electronics and digital applications. But the self-driving car is something else and I see it later in time than electric mobility. There is still a long way to go and Italy is lagging behind: just think that there is not yet a site where you can do the technical tests of the prototypes. This is the first question that the Ministry of Transport will have to address. Of course, changes and accelerations are always possible as well as difficult to predict, but today I can't imagine a scenario of fully self-driving cars before 2050".
