Closing in the red for the European lists, with Piazza Affari losing 1,12% and stopping at 23.178 points. Out of 40 blue chips, only Eni +0,93%, Mediobanca +0,65% and Enel (flat) escape this wave of sales, while the spread rises and makes its weight felt on the banks. The spread between 95-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration stops at 5,82 basis points (+0,58%) and the rate on the Italian bond grows to +XNUMX%. These are perhaps physiological profit-taking, after the euphoria it has received the arrival of Mario Draghi at Palazzo Chigi in recent days, especially today that the prime minister has given his keynote speech in the Senate and should receive the confidence tonight.
Indeed, things will improve and a lot according to Morgan Stanley. Draghi's leadership - he writes in a report - will provide a strong boost to the Italian financial markets, even one double-digit outperformance in equities and a marked improvement in bond spreads. According to the American bank, the BTP spread, i.e. the premium that investors ask for holding Italian government bonds instead of German debt, rated AAA, should fall to 85 basis points by June from the current 90 and in an optimistic scenario it could drop to 55 points basis by the end of the year.
Today's risk aversion, which also sees Wall Street negative at the start, would have its roots in the fear of a possible increase in inflation, capable of dampening optimism about the global economic recovery led by vaccines. Confirming some US macroeconomic data: producer prices for final demand grew by 1,3% on a monthly basis in January, beyond the consensus of economists, who forecast +0,4%; retail sales, up 5,3% on a monthly basis in January, against expectations of +0,7% over the previous month. In Europe the collapse of Kering is also felt, -7,5%, which suffers a worse-than-expected decline in Gucci brand sales in the last quarter of 2020.
The prestigious brand's revenue fell by 10,3% on a like-for-like basis, while analysts had expected a -4%. The brand of Italian origin is worth 60% of sales and 80% of Kering's profits and is among the most successful brands, but the comparison with the growth in revenues recorded by other competitors such as Louis Vuitton, of the Lvmh group. Weighed down but not sunk by this title, Paris dropped by 0,36%, while in the rest of Europe Frankfurt recorded a drop of 1,16%, Madrid -0,41%, Amsterdam -0,93%. Outside the euro zone London fell 0,55%, with data showing that UK inflation also rose a little more than expected in January.
Thus, while central banks, including the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve (the minutes of the last meeting are expected to be published tonight), have signaled their intention to maintain an accommodative monetary policy, market operators - writes Reuters - have started pricing a rise in inflation as economic data improved. Turning to the pandemic, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announces that he will present his action plan on Monday a cautious exit path from the lockdown and caution, given the "incredible success of the vaccination campaign". The EU, on the other hand, is still struggling in an attempt to have all the serums needed and today the European Commission announces that it has reached an agreement with Moderna for the supply of 150 million additional doses for this year, almost doubling the number of doses guaranteed by the US biotech company for 2021.
Under the agreement, the EU can buy another 150 million doses next year. Pfizer, on the other hand, has not yet delivered to the European Union about 10 million doses of its vaccine scheduled for December, failing to supply the EU with a third of the doses expected so far from the blockade. This is what Reuters writes in an exclusive report citing anonymous officials of the European Union. On the currency market, the dollar appreciated on the US market, helped by the rise in yields on Treasuries following better-than-expected macro data. The euro trades down by 0,6% and trades on the verge of 1,2. Once again, however, it is the bitcoin which reaches a new record at 51.721 dollars, after yesterday passing the 50.000 mark for the first time.
The capitalization of the queen cryptocurrency now exceeds $900 billion. Gold, on the other hand, suffers, which is still trading significantly lower today. The April 2021 future loses 1,7% and prices 1768,70 dollars an ounce. On the other hand, the rush for black gold did not stop and Brent-type oil confirmed its fractional rise in the area of 64 dollars a barrel. In Piazza Affari, two oil stocks are positioned at the ends of the main list. Eni is the day's best blue chip, while Saipem is down 4,68% after recent gains. At the bottom of the basket also Nexi, -4,37%, penalized by the announcement of the placement of convertible bonds maturing in 2028 for the amount of one billion euros. The transaction is accompanied by a simultaneous sale of ordinary shares for hedging purposes by some subscribers of the bond, a strategy that usually ends up weighing on the performance of the shares in the short term.
Losses for Amplifon -3,05% and Unipol -2,77%. Stellantis drops 2,15% and the January registrations data suffers (-27,4% in Europe, against a 25,7% drop in the market). Shareholder Exor -2,74% does even worse. Luxury suffers with Kering and penalizes Moncler -2,28%. According to Mediobanca, the turnover of the fashion sector in 2020 collapsed by 23% and the recovery, which could already start this year, will not be rapid. Poste Italiane loses 1,76% at the end of a volatile session, after the presentation of the accounts for the fourth quarter, with a record net profit of 308 million (+18,7%), exceeding analysts' expectations and the proposed dividend of 0,486 euros per share (+ 5% compared to last year).
