After the long rally, the rise is taking a break. But only in the West. In China, where the long Lunar New Year holiday is just around the corner to celebrate the beginning of the year of the ox, the Bull lengthens its pace: the Asian stock markets gallop, the MSCI Asia Pacific index rises by 0,8%.
SHANGHAI AT THE HIGHEST, FROM TODAY ON HOLIDAY
The CSI300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchanges gains almost 2% and reaches the highs of the last 13 years on the last working day before the Lunar New Year holidays. The rally over the past three days has been helped by the Chinese central bank. In its quarterly bulletin released on Monday night, the People's Bank of China explained that the recent liquidity drains should not be interpreted as a reversal of the accommodative policy pursued in recent years.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index is up 2%. Seoul's Kospi gained 0,7% and Sydney's S&P ASX 200 rose 0,6%. The Indian Stock Exchange is down.
COVID EFFECT: RECORD REVENUES FOR TWITTER AND BARBIE
The good intonation of Eastern stock markets suggests a rapid recovery of the rally also in the West, again under the pressure of liquidity. Wall Street's S&P500 index future is up 0,2%. With the market closed, Twitter's quarterly data arrived: revenues were record, equal to 1,3 billion dollars, up 28%. The stock was up 4% post-exchange. The company has warned that during the year, in conjunction with the return to a life more away from home and less on social media, there should be a slowdown in the time spent on the app.
Effects of the pandemic also on Mattel's accounts (+2,1%). The Barbie house has benefited from the lockdown. The situation of Coty (-15%) was exactly the opposite: home working had devastating effects on the sales of Gucci lipsticks. The indices moved little: Dow Jones -0,03, S&P 500 -0,11%. The Nasdaq is up: +0,14%.
SENATE'S YES TO TRUMP'S TRIAL
Congress did not comb the dolls yesterday. By 56 to 44 votes, the US Senate voted to proceed with the second trial impeachment against Donald Trump, rejecting the theory that it would be unconstitutional to prosecute a president who has left office. The real debate begins today. The trial is expected to take less than three weeks. For now there are no numbers for a conviction.
The euro appreciated for the fourth consecutive day against the dollar, at 1,213. Gold on the rise to 1.842 dollars an ounce. Among the precious metals, platinum stands out.
THE "CONTANGO" PUSHES THE PRICES OF CRUDE
After eight consecutive rising sessions, Brent oil stops moving slightly, at 61 dollars a barrel. The American Petroleum Institute estimates a decline in US crude inventories of about three million barrels. Bloomberg reports that thanks to the leap at the beginning of February, a favorable situation has been created for those who limit themselves to investing month after month in futures. Right now short-term options are more expensive than long-term ones, a phenomenon called in the jargon backwardation. The particularity of the moment means that, within a year, the investment in the one-month WTI oil future, renewed at each expiry on that of the following month, is able to yield eight percent a year.
BITCOIN TO THE STARS. AND THE “MINES” FLY
Little stuff for speculation, which has framed other tools to exploit the rise favored by liquidity and by the growing expectation of a surge in inflation. Bitcoin is back in the limelight thanks to an exceptional testimonial: Elon Musk. Mister Tesla has invested 1,5 billion dollars in cryptocurrency and has announced that from now on he will accept virtual currencies for the purchase of vehicles. Bitcoin reached a new all-time high at $48.216: +14% in January, after +47% in December, +40% in November and +28% in October. 2020 saw Bitcoin dominate all asset classes with a gain of 304%. Cryptocurrency mines are also flying: Riot Blockchain and Marathon Patent Group score gains of 22 and 17%.
Beyond Musk's intervention, the support comes from various factors: the growing interest and investments of institutional operators (Grayscale Trust but also BlackRock); the opening of online payment giants (Square, PayPal) to transactions in Bitcoin; several nations are studying the possibility of issuing their own digital currencies (China is already in an advanced phase of experimentation on the digital yuan); the “scarcity” effect of Bitcoin; the growing accessibility of the retail public to operate on exchange platforms (in rapid growth). JP Morgan believes that in a short time the price will more than triple, only due to the arrival of liquidity that is increasingly flowing out of ETFs that have gold as their underlying.
MILAN, THE BULL TAKES A BREAK (-0,54%)
On the seventh day Piazza Affari stopped. Thanks to profit-taking, almost inevitable after the rally triggered by the Draghi effect which, however, continues to support debt securities. Macro data contributes to curbing the upward push: Istat reports a drop in industrial production of 11,4% in 2020 and it is the second worst result since the beginning of the historical series (which starts from 1990), after the fall of 2009.
THE GERMAN SURPLUS DROP, TOTAL RAISES THE HEAD
Things are not better beyond the Rhine: Germany records a drastic drop in the trade surplus, down for the fourth consecutive year. The positive balance between exports and imports amounted to 179,1 billion euros (+16,1 in December). The 9,3% drop in exports and the 7,1% drop in imports compared to 2019 were the sharpest on a trend basis since the 2009 crisis. The result, after so many fireworks, was a session colorless for shares, against purchases of government bonds throughout the Eurozone.
Milan closed the day at -0,54%, at 23.300 points, after a run of six sessions in which it gained more than 8%.
Contrasted by the other European Stock Exchanges: Frankfurt -0,34%. In Paris (+0,1%) Total advanced by 1,54%: the oil company announced that profits are recovering thanks to the stabilization of oil prices. Pandemic asset writedowns resulted in a net loss of $7,2 billion for 2020. Madrid -1,22%; London +0,1%.
BTP BELOW 0,50%, RAIN OF 50-YEAR BONDS IN THE EUROZONE
Pause in the descent of the spread, stopped around 95 points. But in the morning, the 0,50-year yield dropped below 2021% on a day that nonetheless set new records for the Eurozone. Unicredit predicts that Italy will be able to launch a 50-year bond in 70. Or maybe even XNUMX years old.
Spain's 50-year bond raised 5 billion on bookings of 65 billion. The allotment rate was 1,45%, exactly two points lower than the previous one, which dates back to 2016. Last week Portugal received requests for 40 billion on the thirty-year bond placed at 1%. Lastly, Belgium and France placed two 50-year bonds at 0,65%.
ON THE LIST HIGHLIGHTS OIL AND HEALTHCARE
Day without jolts for the Milanese price list, with rises in no particular order. Health sector stocks advance. Best of all Diasorin (+2,93%) ahead of Amplifon (+1,33%) and Recordati (+0,40%). The oil companies Eni (+1,08%) and Saipem (+0,98%) stand out, benefiting from the rise in oil prices.
MEDIOBANCA, THE GOLDEN QUARTER. FLY CREDEM (+7,5%)
Mediobanca (+0,92%) was particularly observed among the banks, after the accounts for the first half of 2020-21. The institute tripled its net profit in December, which for the institute is half of the year, bringing it to 410 million after “the second best quarter in history. With Delfin and Leonardo Del Vecchio we have constant profitable interactions in which we explain strategy and results – said the managing director, Alberto Nagel – My assessment is that we are absolutely aligned on priorities and we are both willing to evaluate even important merger operations , if there were. We haven't changed our minds about that."
But the cover belongs to Credem: +7,5%, at 5,22 euros, after the publication of the 2020 accounts. The confirmations of the positive judgments on the title by analysts have come to drive the title. Intesa Sanpaolo reaffirmed the buy rating and the target price of 6,1 euro. The company confirms itself as "a solid and quality bank". Finecobank slows down (-2,17%) despite the positive accounts.
UTILITIES DOWN, SESA SHOPPING IN CHINA
Utilities are down: Enel -2,54%, A2a -2,22%, Terna -1,80%. Among the mid caps, Sesa made progress (+3,40%). The company has acquired 55% of Fen Wo Shanghai, active in offering digital and marketing solutions for Italian companies operating on the Chinese market. The black jersey went to Nexi (-3,12%). Finecobank slows down (-2,17%) despite the positive accounts.
