Unem, the Confindustria association which brings together companies in the oil sector, estimates a increase in the oil bill for Italy of 4,9 billion euros in 2021, at 16,7 billion against 11,8 last year. A portion of this increased spending is due to rising prices, estimated to grow by 3,7 billion compared to last year. The remaining part, i.e. 1,2 billion, is attributable to the recovery of top consumption in a period of severe depression due to the Covid pandemic. These calculations result in a fuel tax surcharge of 7-10 cents per liter for Italian motorists.
Unem convened the annual assembly to take stock of the situation in the sector, radically influenced by the drop in consumption caused by the pandemic and the consequent fall in oil prices, which have fallen to their lowest levels but which in recent months have started to run again, driven by the world economic recovery.
As a percentage, in 2020, the energy demand in Italy it fell 9,3% as oil showed a 16% plunge. In the first 5 months of 2021, gas recovered more than half of the decline, renewables grew by more than 2%, while oil continues to record a sharp contraction, but with a recovery trend following the reopenings.
“The demand for energy has started to grow significantly again” and is “largely covered by fossil fuels which are still dominant, and will continue to be so for several decades in the absence of truly alternative solutions to satisfy essential needs especially in the most poor on the planet”, underlined President Spinaci, pointing out that in 2021 the demand for energy should grow by 4,6%. 80% of the demand will be covered by fossil fuels”. In detail, the demand for oil, despite an estimated recovery of 6,2%, in 2021 it will still be 3% lower than in 2019. Black gold is "still the leading source of energy with a share of over 30%, followed by coal with 26 % and from gas with 23%”, continues Unem.
For the role of renewables, the sector today stands at around 16% and covers around 30% of electricity generation thanks above all to hydroelectric sources, with wind power and photovoltaics which together account for around 9%. "We realize that (renewables, ed.) are not yet able to cover only the expected increase in demand", commented Spinaci. In this context, however, it should be emphasized that, after the +3% achieved in 2020, a further growth of 2021% is estimated for the sector in 3,9.
Turning to natural gas and coal, are the only sectors that will return to pre-Covid levels in 2021. The first, later with a 3,2% increase, will be driven above all by the growing demand from Asia, the Middle East and Russia. Coal, up 4,5%, is also expected to return above pre-Covid levels and approach 2014 peaks, driven by Chinese demand.
