Italy – Italy's economic recovery from the global recession has been slower than other major Eurozone economies. This can be read in the latest monthly bulletin of the European Central Bank. The warning comes from Frankfurt: "After the considerable declines during the recent recession, exports in all countries except Italy have returned to levels equal to or close to the maximum levels recorded before the recession". Even on the investment front, our country, together with Spain, report figures that are too low when "in Germany they reported the most marked growth since 1970".
The weakness of the Italian recovery cannot be due solely to the country's general economic structure, but economic factors such as product specialization, lack of competitiveness and the degree of competition with countries with low production costs contributed to it.
Eurozone slowdown – But it is the whole euro area that must focus on growth. However, Frankfurt revised its GDP growth upwards to 1,9% in 2011 (0,2% more than previous expectations) but downwards in 2012 to 1,6% (-0,1 points). The greatest fear is that the tensions on the markets will spread to the real economy which is already burdened by "particularly high uncertainty". But the further "energy price increases, protectionist pressures and a possible disorderly correction of international imbalances" also weigh.
Restructuring of public finances – The common goal of Italy and all the countries of the Eurozone "should be to bring debt-GDP ratios and public finances back on a sustainable path as soon as possible", says the ECB.
Interest rates and inflation – The ECB continues to argue that the recent hikes that brought interest rates from 1% to 1,5% were “necessary to adjust the accommodative stance of monetary policy to upside risks to price stability ”. However, after the Federal Reserve's unexpected decision to keep interest rates on the dollar close to zero for the next two years and after the tensions on the markets, Frankfurt could rethink its future maneuvers and not implement further rate hikes.
Frankfurt raised its estimates for inflation for the next few years by 0,1 points: it expects 2,6% in 2011 and 2,0% in 2012. These upward pressures are mainly due to the increase in energy prices and other raw materials. The goal is to stay around 2%, the target established by the Board of Directors.
Job market – "It is essential to eliminate rigidities from the labor market and implement measures that promote wage flexibility" in many countries of the euro area. To stimulate economic growth, European economies must "carry out substantial and comprehensive structural reforms to strengthen the flexibility of economies and their medium-long term growth potential".
