Full speed ahead with zero rates to support the "stable but modest recovery" of the Eurozone. For the first time in a year there hasn't been a downward revision of the estimates, but the improvement is really modest, especially if we consider that the new forecast takes into account the additional stimulus announced at the beginning of the year. Thus Mario Draghi confirmed that the ECB's policy will not change until at least March 2017.
Black smoke, however, for Opec: no agreement has been reached on the production ceiling, but the tones of the great enemies (Saudi Arabia and Iran) have been much more bland and conciliatory than in March. Oil prices, which fell to 48,84 dollars a barrel after the news, rebounded again in the evening to above 50 dollars under the pressure of the decline in US inventories. Oil stocks thus recovered ground: Chevron -0,6% (from a low of 1,6%), Exxon Mobil -0,8% (from -1,7%). In Piazza Affari, Eni closed the session unchanged, after canceling the entire increase (+1,5%) of the morning in the afternoon.
S&P OVER 2.100 POINTS WAITING FOR EMPLOYMENT DATA
Having archived the day in Vienna, for one day the capital of both European monetary policy and the cartel of oil sheiks, finance has already shifted the spotlight back to Wall Street, awaiting the data on new US jobs. American stock exchanges took off after the rally in crude oil (+80% since January with no news of any kind from OPEC in the meantime). The S&P 500 index (+0,28%) jumped over 2.100 points, to a seven-month high (+3% since the beginning of 2016). The Dow Jones rose 0,27%, Nasdaq +0,39%.
US private companies created 156.000 new jobs in May, in line with expectations. The new applications for unemployment benefits are stable: last week they were 267.000, only 1.000 more than the previous eighth.
Apple down (-0,80%): Goldman Sachs cut its target price to 124 from 136 dollars after lowering its forecasts on the growth of the smartphone market. Oracle (-4%) in sharp decline: the software giant was sued by the former head of the finance area, Serena Blackburn, on charges of false accounting. Superiors would pressure her to inflate sales of cloud-based software.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange this morning rose slightly in the final session: Nikkei +0,2% after yesterday's heavy drop (-2,3%). The Chinese markets are little moved: Hong Kong +0,2%, Shanghai -0,1%. Seoul loses 0,2% and Mumbai gains 0,5%.
MILAN -0,2%. THE ECB EXPANDS PURCHASES TO CORPORATE BONDS
The variations of the European price lists are modest. Down in Paris (-0,21%), a plus sign for Frankfurt (+0,09%), Madrid (+0,46%) and London (+0,02%). The data on the SME services of the 'Eurozone. Piazza Affari closed the session slightly down (the Ftse Mib index fell by 0,24% to 17.767 points). The Milan Stock Exchange, positive in the morning, reversed trend in the first part of the afternoon, in conjunction with Mario Draghi's press conference and the conclusion of the OPEC meeting in Vienna.
The ECB provided the latest details on the Eurozone's corporate bond purchases which will kick off next Wednesday. Under the programme, the ECB will only buy bonds issued by companies with investment-grade ratings, but the central bank will have no obligation to sell the corporate bonds it holds in the event that companies are downgraded to junk bonds . Some securities that previously fell under the PSPP program (largely dedicated to government bonds) will switch to the CSPP program (mainly corporate). Among these are the securities issued by Enel, Snam, Terna and Ferrovie dello Stato, companies united by having public control through the Treasury or CDP.
BANCO POPOLARE, THE NEW SECURITIES AT 2,14 EUROS
In Milan today, attention will still be focused on the capital increases of the banks, on the eve of the start, on Monday, of the Banco Popolare operation unchanged yesterday (but the worst blue chip of 2016 with a loss of 70% since the beginning of the year). Yesterday's board of directors set the price: 2,14 euros for each new share at the rate of 9 new shares for every seven already owned. The discount on the Terp (the theoretical price of the security after detachment of the right) is equal to 29,3%.
The press release issued in the evening by the institute announces that the Board of Directors “has resolved to issue maximum no. 465.581.304 new shares, with no par value, having the same characteristics as ordinary shares already in circulation and with regular entitlement, to be offered as an option to the Company's shareholders in the ratio of 9 BP Shares for every 7 shares held, at the subscription price of 2,14 euros for each BP Share. The maximum equivalent value of the Option Offer will therefore be equal to 996.343.990,56 euros to be charged entirely to the share capital”.
Will the discount be enough to entice investors and thus avoid a third fiasco after Pop Vicenza and Veneto Banca? It is the one billion euro question that will dominate the session in Piazza Affari today. The premises are not positive but it should not be overlooked that at these prices a large investor, Italian or not, can secure a strategic share in the third largest Italian bank, the one that will arise from the merger of Banco with Banca Popolare di Milano (yesterday +0,04% ).
Meanwhile yesterday, thanks to the public holiday, the banks enjoyed a day of respite after the heavy downturns of the previous days. Monte Paschi (+2%) and Banca Popolare dell'Emilia Romagna (+3,1%) are progressing, still under pressure Unicredit (-2%), Ubi Banca (-1,6%) and Intesa Sanpaolo (-0,7, XNUMX%).
SOUL EXITS FTSE MIB. ENTER RECORD
The worst blue chip of the day was Anima with a drop of 3,7% to 5,28 euros despite Banca Imi confirming the add rating and the target price at 7,8 euros. The reason for the thud of the asset management company, also owned by Poste Italiane, is linked to the updating of the main basket of Piazza Affari. Starting from 20 June, the stock will no longer be part of the 40 companies that make up the Ftse Mib index. The place will be taken by Recordati, yesterday +0,5%, fresh from the recent acquisition of Italchimici (130 million euro). Since the beginning of the year, the pharmaceutical company's stock has risen by 12% after an excellent 2015, which closed with a performance of +87%.
FCA SUPERSTAR THANKS TO JEEP AND DESPITE BRAZIL
Positive day for Fiat Chrysler, up 2% thanks to good data on car sales in Italy in May (+33%) and stability in the US market (-1% due to the decline of Ford and GM) which offset the decline in Brazil. Analysts are convinced that the success of the Jeep and Ram models can also support sales in the remaining part of the year and expect registrations of the Alfa Romeo Giulia to rise as the months go by.
“The Italian data was strong. The market is expected to grow by 7/9% yoy this year”, comment the Banca Akros experts. "US sales were also good considering overall market registrations were down 6 percent year-over-year." Fiat Chrysler therefore remains "a buying opportunity", indicate the Banca Imi analysts who therefore confirm the buy rating on the stock and the target price of 9,2 euros, the same opinion as Banca Akros (target price at 10,40 euro) and ICBPI (target price at 11,3 euro). Ferrari is also up (+1,64%).
ENEL SHOPPING IN INDONESIA
Among the utilities, Snam loses 1,7%. Credit Suisse has cut its estimates ahead of the presentation of the new 2016-2020 plan on June 29. The rating on the stock remains neutral with a target price of 4,70 euros.
Enel gains 0,3%: the group is evaluating Chevron's geothermal assets in Indonesia for a potential acquisition, looking for opportunities in renewable energy.
FEVER IS RISING FOR RCS (+2,7%)
Rcs (+2,68%) is still on the move, reaching a daily high of 0,794 euros after the go-ahead from all the banks on debt rescheduling and on raise bets in the bid challenge between Cairo Communication on one side and Bonomi and historical members of the group on the other.
