To make the transition to renewable energy credible, the real challenge, if you look closely, is that of batteries. Or rather, accumulations to store that green energy which is unfortunately created in a discontinuous way, not entirely predictable, difficult to plan except in the massive necessary investments. Is Asia the boss? It's not for sure. Even in our country there is no lack of technologies. The Draghi government promises to make it a priority, strengthened by the strategies and substantial investments driven by the European resources of the Pnrr, with a one billion euro plan for green energies that focuses precisely on accumulations, while Enea and Cnr guide the participation of the large Italian energy companies al first European project from 7 million euros for sector research.
Technology and money. Technology means small, medium and even gigantic batteries. Small, if we talk about accumulation systems, including domestic ones, serving the photovoltaic systems that are beginning to populate our homes. Of medium size, in the case of batteries hosted by electric cars who are trying to get away. Large or even colossal, in the plants called upon to act as a buffer for the large intelligent electricity grids that are starting to replace the old systems, unable to let a multitude of renewable sources breathe properly, which already today cover about half of all the electricity we consume in our country.
The beauty is that all of these different families of batteries are meant to form one integrated system, thanks to the nascent intelligent networks: the exchange on the spot with the public networks of our photovoltaic system capable of making us and the community gain in terms of overall system efficiency, also thanks to the car which acts as a buffer for the stability of the network electricity when it is connected to the plug (veichle to grid), destined in turn to recycle the batteries, when they age and lose efficiency, as modules that make up the large fixed accumulation systems called to act as a buffer for the networks.
Whoever masters batteries, and the related system intelligence, will have a fast track to winning the challenge of the electrical systems of the future. And Italy, for once, is not in such bad shape.
The stages of the challenge
The secret is to modulate investments well by anticipating the expected progress in the overall efficiency of the batteries, in terms of relationship between cost and performance. Today, lithium-ion batteries (the prevailing technology) are still too expensive to be widely used in their multiple uses: 400 euros per kilowatt hour is no joke, but it is expected to drop to 70 euros by 2003. In the meantime various alternatives to electrochemical batteries could make their way: for example hydrogen, which however costs nine euros per kilo if really produced with green energy, or super-capacitor systems which, however, still have a stratospheric cost. The alternatives closest to lithium technology are more realistic in the short-medium term: from iron-air to fluorine-sulphur, to manganese-titanium.
Also runs the search for form factors in the most efficient batteries. This is a critical problem especially in cars, if we consider that even today the batteries of the highly refined Tesla are simply made up of the assembly of a multitude of rechargeable stylus batteries very similar to those we use every day in the family.
Precisely guessing the timing of these advances is not easy. What is certain is that the drop in costs and the increase in battery performance should really make the competitiveness of the electric car realistic already around 2030-2035. In the meantime, if the technological race really accelerates, the huge geopolitical unknowns that are marking the challenge could be decongested. Forecasts say that the lithium requirement will increase from 250 tons a couple of years ago to 3 million tons in 2028 with more than predictable supply problems. The chip crisis that has been freezing a large part of industry around the world in recent months, not just the most advanced, must teach us something. But of course, nothing rules out the possibility that the same critical scenario could be reproduced – the analysts warn – also for cousin or complementary materials: nickel, graphite, manganese, cobalt.
Us and the others
The economic terms (and not only) of the challenge are therefore powerful. The overall battery business is already valued at 560 billion dollars today and our European commission intends to mobilize the beauty of 120 billion dollars between now and 2027 for investments in the sector, against an Asian quasi-monopoly which between 2015 and last year it polarized 85% of the more than 100 billion dollars spent in what should be considered simply the first run-in phase of the system.
Password: gigafactory. For the production of batteries, increasingly powerful storage systems directly serving the electricity system, perhaps modeling what the Americans are doing in Florida to speed up the replacement of old coal-fired plants with the largest solar-powered battery system of the world (for now): the Manatee Energy Storage Center, consisting of 132 storage containers located in a 40-acre, 16-hectare plot, equivalent to approximately 30 football fields.
The challenge is not for children. The mobilization of long-term planning alliances of automobile giants is no accident. The giants are on track. In China, in the rest of the world, in Europe and fortunately also in Italy, games are being played out in recent months, for a deal that in the Old Continent is already worth at least 40 billion euros today. And while Tesla promises to open its new gigafactory for batteries in Germany in Gruenheide near Berlin within a few months, the French of Renault with the Chinese Envision are planning a plant in England in Sunderland, on the industrial site of Nissan, its construction ally shared cars. Meanwhile, the Volkswagen group plans to extend six of its plants in the Old Continent to the production of batteries.
Cards to play
In Italy ours Minister Cingolani he strongly believes in the project of setting up a national pole to integrate us into the European supply chain and perhaps even act as the leader. There are encouraging signs. The first real gigafactory could come from an international consortium in the former Olivetti factory in Scarmagno, in the Canavese area: the planned investment is 4 billion euros, with 4 direct workers and another 6 in related industries, to complete perhaps as early as 2024 a production line capable of 45 gigawatt hours which could soon reach 70, as much as the whole Europe. Stellantis is accelerating, as it intends to build a super battery factory in the large Termoli plant of Fiat by investing 30 billion over the next three years, aiming for over 260 gigawatt hours of capacity by 2030, at the service of its new range of electric vehicles but also to supply base systems for other uses.
Our large energy operators are also operating on decidedly cutting-edge fronts. Alongside its activity of installing integrated green energy storage production systems for businesses and individuals, Enel X is proposing itself as a partner to industrial customers to design and build not only storage systems but also energy recovery integrated with the accumulations, offering real energy performance contracts to guarantee the result.
System intelligence seems to be a must for our electricity champion: already at the beginning of 2020, Enel launched an experimental virtual power plant by aggregating over 100 domestic storage systems that responded to the call in the provinces of Bergamo, Brescia and Mantua , using them for network balancing. An application that brings the project implemented by Terna, the national operator of the national high-voltage electricity grid with its e-mobility Lab, directly into the systems installed in Italian homes: a large integrated system capable of put car batteries on the grid when I'm in charge just to act as a lung for the system. Campioni capable of exporting these solutions also abroad? It would not be the first time.
