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Banks and bonds: Ursula's plan makes them fly

The Recovery Fund gives wings to banks and bonds, but the Hong Kong crisis could undermine the confidence of the financial markets - Unicredit leads the rise in bank shares - Over 100 deaths in the US from the pandemic, while the S&P index exceeds psychological threshold of 3 thousand points

Banks and bonds: Ursula's plan makes them fly

Bad weather forced Elon Musk to postpone the launch of his spacecraft from Cape Canaveral. Wall Street consoles itself with the announcement of the reopening, a few kilometers away from the base, of Disney World, the largest theme park on the planet, closed for some time due to Covid -19. But the spacecraft guided by Ursula Von der Leyen, sent on a mission against the recession by Angela Merkel, went into orbit yesterday.

A 172 BILLION BONUS FOR ITALY

The 750 billion euro plan announced by the president of the EU Commission represents, both in terms of size and modalities, a historic step, especially in relations between Brussels and Italy, which should reach 172 billion over time. It will be a long process and opposed by the opposition of the Northern countries, but also by internal resistance (see Five Stars) to make use of the resources of the Mes, the first available for an urgent intervention. What matters, for now, is that the European Union is tuning in to the long wave of anti-recession interventions by other economies, starting with Japan, which has announced a support plan equal to 40% of GDP.

In this setting, the confrontation between China and the USA, protagonists of "Cold War second act", an increasingly dangerous sequel, rises in tone.

THE USA: "HONG KONG NOW DESERVES A SPECIAL STATUS"

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange deteriorated overnight, falling by 1,5%, while the Legislative Assembly is discussing a bill introducing the crime of insulting China's anthem and flag: the building is surrounded by riot police.

"Hong Kong is no longer an automaton from China," said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, anticipating that the former British colony will lose its privileged status in trade relations with Washington.

The other Asian markets are not influenced by what happens in Hong Kong: Tokyo Nikkei +1%, Sydney +1,2%, Jakarta +2%, Mumbai +0,5%.

Shanghai lost 0,3% and Singapore 0,2%, while the yuan moved little at 7,16 against the dollar, close to levels last seen in 2008.

S&P 500 EXCEEDS 3 POINTS. BANKS FLY

The S&P index (+1,48%) has finally crossed the threshold of 3 points again. The Dow Jones is better (+2,21). NASDAQ +0,77%.

The banks were the protagonists of the session: the benchmark index for the sector, the KBW, gained 6,7%, from yesterday's +8,7%. Jamie Dimon, head of JP Morgan, said he was optimistic about the recovery.

Social media clouds. The titans of the social media economy, Facebook, Twitter and Google, risk being hit by the executive order on the monitoring and moderation of what users write that the White House is allegedly preparing: reports the Washington Post. It was Donald Trump himself, from his Twitter account, who threatened an intervention, offended by the treatment reserved for his sorties, especially those on the pandemic, which yesterday exceeded 100 victims in the US.

OVER 100 DEAD IN THE STATES. 26 THOUSAND IN BRAZIL

In Brazil, the deaths from Covid 19 have reached 25.600 and the number of infected people has risen to 411.000, in second place on the planet, behind the United States. Studies by independent institutes indicate a much wider spread of the virus: the infected could be five times as many.

Brent oil is down 2,8%, to 33,8 dollars, from -4% yesterday. Gold rose 0,4% to $1.715 after three consecutive days of declines.

URSULA LAUNCHES A BET OF 1.850 BILLION

“Europe's moment: repair to prepare for the next generation”. This is the title of Ursula von der Leyen's program to relaunch Europe beyond the pandemic. “Vaste programme”, to quote General De Gaulle. But, at least on paper, with an adequate financial plan. Resources amounting to 1.850 billion euros will be mobilised, of which 1.100 will come from the European budget, the rest from Recovery Fund. Of these 750 billion euros, 500 will be distributed directly to the members of the Union, the rest will be made available through loans. Most of these resources, 313 billion euros, will arrive in Italy and Spain, the two countries most affected by the pandemic, in health and economic terms. The fund will in turn be financed by issuing bonds with a Community guarantee.

COUNT REJOICES. MERKEL: IT WILL BE HARD

The Plan provides for an advance of part of the funds already this year (11,5 billion euros), with distribution linked to the impact of the virus. For Italy, all this translates into around 80 billion euros in transfers and around 90 billion euros in loans, expiring until 2058. The funds are disbursed by the so-called Recovery and Resilience Facility, which will have 560 billion euros available, of which 310 billion in transfers.

A program that goes "exactly in the direction indicated by Italy, with adequate resources", tweeted the Italian premier, Giuseppe Conte. Why then was the Italian Stock Exchange the coldest? The index fluctuated following statements by Chancellor Angela Merkel according to which negotiations on the Recovery Fund "will be tough", in light of the contrary position by Holland.

PLACE OF BUSINESS FIRST REJOICES, THEN BRAKES

Piazza Affari closed the session with a modest gain of +0,3%, to 17.910 points, on trades on the rise to 3,5 billion (+48%). The Ftse Mib had gained momentum after Frau Ursula's proposal, largely exceeding the barrier of 18 points.

The reaction of Madrid (+2,33%) was much more confident, together with Italy the economy most rewarded by the turnaround of the Community. Banco de Santander flies (+4,9%).

RENAULT EXPLODES IN PARIS (+17%), KEEPS THE AXIS WITH NISSAN

The other price lists are in broadly positive territory, albeit below the highs. The Renault share (+17,47%) goes into orbit in Paris, following the Macron e plan the first agreement with Nissan: the two houses (and Mitsubishi) will develop together 50% of the new models until 2025.

Frankfurt +1,3%. Lufthansa's supervisory board has made it known that it is not in a position to approve the 9 billion euro agreement with the German federal government, due to the conditions dictated by the European Commission, which imposes, among other things, the transfer of rights landing at Frankfurt and Munich airports.

Outside the Eurozone, London +1,29%.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said the euro zone economy was likely to contract between 8% and 12% this year from the impact of Covid-19.

THE SPREAD DOWN TO 192, BTP AT 1,46%

The ten-year BTP closed the session with a rate below 1,5%, the lowest since the beginning of April, after having touched a minimum of 1,46%. The market thus welcomed the plan presented by Brussels with great satisfaction.

At the close, the spread was 192 basis points, from a minimum of 188, but down sharply compared to the 199 on the eve.

The Treasury has assigned the 10 billion euros offered in the six-monthly BOT (with yields at a three-month low) and in the February 2021 flexible BOT.

The demand for the new 51 billion 20-year OAT launched yesterday by France exceeded 7 billion euros.

UNICREDIT LEADS THE RALLY OF BANKS

Supported by the good performance of the bond market, the banking sector, which benefited the most from the Recovery Plan, made a solid contribution to the recovery of the stock market.

Among the most popular stocks Mediobanca and Unicredit clearly up by 4,4% and 4,8%. Mps was also strong, up 6%.

Ubi closes at +0,76%: the bank's board of directors has launched an action to ascertain whether, due to the epidemic, the MAC condition of effectiveness of the public exchange offer promoted by Intesa has ceased (+ 2,48%).

NEXI HOLDED BACK BY MERCURY SALES: NEAR THE WEDDING WITH SIA

Nexi sold (-8,4% to 14,49 euros), weighed down by the placement of 8,8% of the share capital by the reference shareholder Mercury UK at a price of 14,2 euros.

Atlantia performed well (+3,6%) on the day of the majority meeting on the procedure for revoking the Autostrade concession which will continue in the next few days. The Government's orientation seems to be a waiver of the revocation of the concession on the condition that Atlantia becomes a minority shareholder of ASPI.

Automotive is still on the rise. FCA leaps by 3%, Pirelli +3,3% with the sector at European level growing by 5%. The exception is Ferrari (-1,1%).

It does not benefit from the Stm rally (-5,32%), despite the leading role envisaged in the Macron plan. The Italian-French joint venture is paying for the slowdown of chips in the USA. Down also Prysmian (-3%) and Leonardo (-2,5%).

DIASORIN IN FREE FALL, DOWN RECORD YOURSELF

Diasorin collapses (-12,18%), in the wake of some profit taking after the sharp rise achieved since the beginning of the pandemic. Jefferies revised the judgment on the "hold" stock to "underperform", target price at 120 euros. Recordati is also in the red – 2,4%.

OVS +15% GUARANTEED BY SACE, TEARS RCS

In rally Ovs which closes at +15,17%. For 2020, the company believes it can break even in terms of net income (considering lower rental costs than last year). A new credit line guaranteed by the state for 100 million euros has been approved, which will have a duration of 4 years and three months, subject to the issuance of the decree by the Ministry of the Economy. The new financing, together with a higher level of sales, should remove the hypothesis of a recourse to a capital increase in the second half of the year.

It rips Rcs, but halves the gain from intraday highs (+8,8%). Yesterday the arbitral tribunal of Milan ruled that the contracts for the sale of the headquarters to Blackstone in 2013 are valid but, according to the publishing group, considered that the buyer's behavior could give rise to compensation for damages. A Blackstone spokesman stressed that no decision on any compensation has been made. The parent company Cairo Communication also jumped (+4,5%). The broker Banca Imi explains that "the possibility of compensation is good news for RCS", while emphasizing that the final outcome of the dispute is still uncertain.

INWIT TOWARDS THE MAIN BASKET, FERRAGAMO EXITS

Sales on Inwit (-2%) which is preparing to enter the main blue chip index, with the revision next week. Salvatore Ferragamo out of the main basket (+1,99%).

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