The drop in Asian stock markets ushers in a week that does not offer any hints of optimism: the war in Ukraine escalates, inflation rises and Wall Street looks with some fear at the publication of the quarterly reports of the big banks. Thus the mini-rebound of the euro (+0,8%), which tonight greeted the outcome of the first round of the elections in France, ended. The gains quickly disappeared and the cross is on par at 1,088 this morning.
The 2019-year T-bond at the latest from XNUMX
Illustrating the mood of the market are Wall Street futures, down by half a point while yields on T bonds are still pointing upwards: 2,77% for the ten-year, on new highs in the last three years, +7 points basis, at the same level as China's XNUMX-year (declining).
Oil falling to 96 dollars, stock markets down
Meanwhile, the decline in Chinese markets is striking, probably also linked to the exasperation over the growth of Covid infections in Shanghai, despite the strict lockdown: yesterday 26.087 cases, a new record. After the discovery of 20 cases in the Guangzhou metropolis, district authorities have closed schools and introduced travel restrictions. As a consequence, stocks and bonds lose ground, but also oil (-2,5%, at 95,8 dollars a barrel), in the face of signs of slowdown in the economy. It is unlikely that the EU will proceed with the embargo of Russian crude oil today.
Hong Kong: tech down 4%
The CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzen stock lists lost 2,3% after the publication of data on consumer prices (+1,5% in March) and production prices (+8,3%, from +8,8 % of previous month).
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index loses 2,4%. Hang Seng Tech -4%. Also down was the Nikkei of Tokyo (-0,7%), the Kospi of Seoul -0,3% and the Indian BSE Sensex -0,5%.
Macron wins but does not win hands down
Emmanuel Macron wins, without overwhelming, the first round of the French presidential elections, belying the risk of an engagement on the right. An expected result, even if the rise of Marine Le Pen is confirmed, capable of reducing the gap from the incumbent president to just over four points, despite competition from the extreme right of Eric Zemmour.
Draghi on a mission to Algeria, an arms summit in Luxembourg
The spotlights of the markets will thus be focused on the Ukrainian emergency. The foreign ministers of the Eurozone will meet in Luxembourg: the supply of arms to Kiev and the possible oil embargo against Moscow will be at the center of the talks. Mario Draghi meanwhile will be on a mission to Algeria to formalize the increase in gas supplies from the Mediterranean country.
In Europe, the most important appointment will fall on Thursday, when the directorate of the ECB will meet, called to choose between the immediate cut in purchases on the market and an imminent increase in rates, as required by the increase in inflation to 7,5% or insist on supporting the economy, slowing down due to the energy emergency. Today, on a macro level, the trend of the GDP and of the industrial production of the United Kingdom must be followed.
Data on inflation in Europe and the USA is coming
It's the week of inflation data: tomorrow March data from Germany and the United States will be published, Wednesday those from Great Britain, Friday it will be the turn of France and Italy. The monetary policy meeting of the ECB is scheduled for Thursday.
In the United States, on the eve of the cost of living data (expected +8,4%), today the governors of the Federal Reserve will speak: Bostic, Bowman, Evans, who will anticipate the mood of the Fed in view of the May meeting.
The accounts of JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs
But Wall Street is already warming up its engines in view of the start of the quarterly campaign. We will start this week with the accounts of the big banks – namely JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo – and with the airlines, starting with Delta Airlines.
On the corporate front, watch out for Tesla: the first results on the production of the new plants in Shanghai and Berlin will arrive this week. Elon Musk's company aims to produce more than two million cars within the year. The tycoon, meanwhile, has renounced to join the Twitter board.
Mps assembly, spotlight on Bpm
The calendar of Piazza Affari provides for both the ordinary and extraordinary shareholders' meetings of Monte Paschi. But there are quite different financial battles awaiting our home market.
To follow the banking sector, after the vibrant response of the market to the blitz of Crédit Agricole on Banco Bpm. The market awaits the reaction of Unicredit, already seen as a possible hunter in Piazza Meda.
Generals, the proxies are with Donnet
The time of reckoning at Generali is approaching. The maximum time has expired for the purchases of securities in view of the meeting of 29 April. Meanwhile ISS, Glass Lewis and Frontis - the three fund governance consultants, holders of a third of the Leone capital - have invited investors to vote for the outgoing list, not the one presented by Caltagirone and supported by Del Vecchio and Crt (nor that of Assogestioni).
Atlantia prepares for the takeover bid exchange
The temperature around Atlantia is still warm, rising above 21 euros on rumors about the consortiums ready to promote an offer on the motorway and airport holding company. The offer of the Gip and Brookfield funds together with Florentino Perez (22 billion) could push the Benettons to accelerate the reorganization of the group with the Blackstone fund. Rumors speak of a total takeover bid by Edizione and the US fund at 24 euros, for a total of 12 billion euros.
Prysmian should also be mentioned. Credit Suisse raised its rating to Outperform, from Neutral, with a target price of 35 euros.
