Crude oil prices fall after the Iranian nuclear deal. In Asia, Brent prices fell by 2,3% in early trading after the Geneva agreement. The winds of peace have also swept over Tehran's enemies: both Tel Aviv's +0,7% and Ryiad's +0,2% share price increases, despite the Iranian nuclear deal being strongly opposed by Israel and from Saudi Arabia. Another Bull signal comes from Asia: the Tokyo Stock Exchange rises, one hour after closing, by around 1,5% on the wave of the fall in the yen (101,85 against the dollar) to its lowest since May. Inflation rose to 0,9%.
The partial drop of sanctions against Tehran should also affect the quotations of maritime transport and insurance companies. Against the euphoria, however, looms the risk of a change of course by the central banks. The Financial Times reported this morning the threat of US banks to withdraw deposits in the face of the possibility, raised at the last Fonc meeting, of imposing negative interest on funds parked at the Fed, in an attempt to reduce the impact of tapering. Today, meanwhile, the European bankers who will face the stress tests will be in Frankfurt to be taught by Mario Draghi.
Will the Bull be able to continue the climb? The S&P 500 index +0,3% took its leave on Friday with a new all-time high above 1.800. The day before it was the turn of the Dow Jones, for the first time above 16. The appeal with the record is missing only in Lnasdaq +0,8% a breath away from the wall of 4 points untouched since the days of the Internet bubble. In Europe, however, only Milan +0,7% and Frankfurt +0,6%, stimulated by the low cost of money but also by the surge in the German confidence index, closed in positive territory. London and Paris close at -0,3%, Madrid at -0,2%.
TREASURE IN FIELD ONLY WITH BOT
The auction of indexed BTPs has been cancelled, the Treasury takes the field on Wednesday 27 November with an auction of a six-monthly BTP for 7 billion euro. Meanwhile, this morning Germany will issue government bonds with a 12-month maturity for a maximum amount of 3 billion euros. All yields rose during the week, starting with those of the most solid issuers: the 2,8-year T bond returned to 1,76%, the German Bund with the same duration rose to XNUMX%.
TELECOM, THE WAR OF THE CDA
War of position in Telecom Italia less than a month before the shareholders' meeting on 20 December on the revocation of the board of directors requested by Marco Fossati's Findim. If the shareholders' meeting approves the revocation proposal, Telco will present a list made up of three candidates: the current CEO Marco Patuano, Julio Linares Lopez (Telefonica) and the independent Stefania Bariatti.
Assogestioni, with 1,585% of 14 Italian and foreign funds, presented seven names expressly not eligible for executive roles: Luigi Zingales, Luisa Calvosa, David Benello, Francesca Cornelli, Giuseppe Dinagemma, Maria Eleena Cappello, Francesco Serafini. The outcome of the vote, for now, is far from counted. The most likely scenario, at the moment, is that investment funds are presented in no particular order. In the background, then, the controversy over the convertend from which Findim was excluded rages.
FIAT, HOT TABLES IN DETROIT AND TURIN
Hot week also for Fiat +3,3% in the last week. On Friday, the Lingotto stock rose after the news that the banks in charge of placing Chrysler in view of the IPO valued it at 10 billion dollars, i.e. at a significantly lower value than the price that the Veba fund intends to obtain or with the listing or with the sale to Fiat. As early as this week, the company and the Uaw could start negotiations to settle the issue.
The US match crosses over with the Italian one. Today in Turin, Fiat meets the metalworkers' unions on the renewal of the contract: Fiom, which has not signed the company contract, will be received in the morning while Fim, Uilm and Fismic in the early afternoon, according to the unions. The Lingotto should provide indications on the programs for the Italian factories, but the match is linked to the evolution of the Chrysler dossier: the group's liquidity is frozen in view of the big deal on which future strategies will depend.
IN THE SPOTLIGHT. BPM AND MPS, DUEL TO THE FINAL VOTE
There will be no challenge between ministers for the presidency of Banca Popolare di Milano (+3,4% in the last week). Former premier Lamberto Dini has given up leading the list that could count on the support of Raffaele Mincione, the institute's second shareholder with 7,02%. Indeed, Dini himself advised Mincione "not to present a list in the name of his investment fund". The decision came after a confrontation with the national unions, compact in favor of the former minister Piero Giarda. Dini accused the unions of wanting to maintain the status quo by contravening the indications of the Supervisory Authority, starting with the need to subscribe to the capital increase for 500 million, destined to fail without a change in governance. Unless, concludes Dini, "the increase is not subscribed by the employees and retired members or by the trade union secretariats".
Tension is rising between the top management of Banca Monte Paschi (–3% in the last week) and the Foundation. During the week, the go-ahead for the bank's recovery plan should arrive from Brussels which, among other qualifying points, provides for the operation on the 3 billion capital. The intention of the Profumo-Viola couple is to carry out the operation in January, the first of the three windows (the others are June and December) available in 2014. The choice is advised both by the favorable conditions of the financial markets and by the urgency of pay off Monti's high-interest bonds. But the Foundation has opposing objectives: the Sienese institution in fact wants to sell the residual stake in the Monte (33,5%) before the operation, thus avoiding the dilution of the stake and the drop in the value of the securities below the threshold of 0,12, XNUMX euros, below which enforcement by creditors may be triggered. A bitter duel is already looming this week.
ROME, PALLOTTA SGAMBETTA UNICREDIT
An agitated session is announced in Piazza Affari for As Roma which tonight will try to replicate the neo-leaders Juventus on the pitch. But the hard tackle of James Pallotta, the Bostonian president of the company, is holding the court, against the negotiations started by Unicredit to sell the shares of the club in his possession to the Chinese group Hna. Pallotta, with an official press release, denied the negotiation and defined the news that caused the stock to soar on the stock exchange as "nonsense". It is a pity that the rumors were confirmed last Friday, upon Consob invitation, by Unicredit.
TODAY'S AGENDA
Zucchi's capital increase is under way, in which the goalkeeper of the national team Gigi Buffon is the first shareholder. It will end on December 12 (the rights will be negotiable until December 5). The transaction has a total maximum amount of just over 25,36 million euros (inseparable up to 24,86 million euros and divisible for the difference, through the issue, in two separate tranches, of ordinary shares with no nominal value.
Astaldi's senior unsecured bond for 400 million is on the launch pad. Fitch's expected rating is 'B+' with a positive outlook for both the long term and the new issue. Extraordinary meeting of Moleskine on stock option plans and the proxy for the capital increase. The detachment of the coupon of the extraordinary dividend of IMA is expected. The Montefibre board meeting on the accounts for the first half is scheduled.
THE BEST BLUE CHIPS OF THE WEEK
Salvatore Ferragamo stands out +8,7%, while Luxottica -0,7% slips, for once, among the worst in the Ftse/Mib basket. StM also stood out +4,7%, driven by the better forecasts on the market trend rather than by the prospect of the sale of a part of the share held by the Treasury. The shares of the companies that announced the end of the syndicate pacts are still in evidence: Pirelli +4,7%, Diasorin +4,6%. Among the banking stocks, the Popolari are effervescent: Bper +3,5%, Banco Popolare +3,4% Bpm +3,4%. In negative territory Saipem -6% and Autogrill -3,7%.
