Sprint start of the week in Tokyo (+1,3%) in the wake of US employment data announced on Friday evening. Tensions remain high in Hong Kong +0,3%, where the stock exchange and government buildings have reopened following the ultimatum from Governor Leung, to whom Beijing has reaffirmed its full support. Still closed for public holidays Shanghai. Meanwhile, the World Bank has cut Chinese GDP growth to 7.4%.
Spotlights also on Brazil. Dilma Rouseff leads the presidential elections with 44% of the votes, but she will have to contend in the October 26 runoff with the pro-business challenger Aecio Neves, who obtained about 33% of the votes ahead of Marina Silva (21%). The São Paulo Stock Exchange, hostile to Rousseff's reappointment, lost 4,7% last week. The real trades at 2,5070, one step away from the intervention threshold of the central bank (2,50).
The echo of these events will also characterize the meetings of the World Bank and the Monetary Fund in Washington where once again the comparison between the austerity of Europe, in recession, and the increasingly robust signs of the US recovery will take center stage. A now traditional theme but with a novelty: the rise of the dollar against the euro, which has slipped to 1,2501 (-1,3%) to its lowest level since 2012 while the yen (-0,4%) is at its lowest level since 'August 2008. "Too little - writes Wolgang Munchau this morning in the Financial Times - to offer an effective benefit for Italian exports: the exchange lever cannot solve the problems of the Eurozone".
The markets are once again betting on a possible rise in US interest rates. In anticipation of next week's Fed meeting, the most awaited signal to decipher the mood of the central bank will be the Wednesday publication of the Beige Book, the most accurate "thermometer" of the state of health of the US economy.
For Italy, the most awaited (and feared) appointment is set for Friday: Moody's will announce Italy's rating, at the same time as that of France. On the same day, the two countries will release the data on industrial production. Also due to the effect of the rise in the dollar, oil prices slipped below 90 dollars. Gold touched its lowest levels of the year this morning at 1.183 dollars an ounce.
BAGS, MADRID OVERTAKING MILAN
The markets reopen after a roaring finale, made possible by the brilliant US employment data. Thanks to the final exploit, the Wall Street indexes contained the decline of the week: S&P 500 -0,8%, Dow Jones –0,6%, Nasdaq +0,7%. HP will be split in two, writes The Wall Street Journal: pc and printer will be conferred to a conferred to an ad hoc company.
Europe fared worse: the Stoxx 600 showed a drop of 2,1%, the result of disappointment at the failure to launch European QE by the ECB. Despite Friday's +1% rebound, the index posted its worst weekly performance since August 8.
The final balance of Milan is a drop of 2,86%, which reduces the performance since the beginning of the year to +6,4%. Piazza Affari is no longer the best stock exchange in Europe since the beginning of the year, but it is behind Madrid which has risen by 6,6% since January XNUMXst.
BOT AT AUCTION, BUT ALREADY LOOKING AT BTP ITALIA
The sovereign debt market held up much better than the equity market. The spread between the BTP and the Bund dropped below 140 points after Thursday's surge (144 bp). The yield is at 2,31%.
In the meantime, the work of the Treasury has already begun to strengthen the Central Guarantee Fund or other instruments to support companies to recognize a public guarantee on ABS mezzanine emissions, so that they can be purchased by the ECB as part of the program detailed yesterday by the president Mario Draghi. In a meeting at the ministry "the possible technical forms" have already been examined and underlined "how the government and the supervisory authorities want to make the most of the opportunity on ABS that comes with the ECB program".
On the issues front, tomorrow the Treasury will announce the quantities of 3- and 12-month BOTs offered at auction on Friday. But attention is already focused on the BTP Italia: on 17 October the guaranteed minimum rate of the seventh issue offered to the public between 20 and 23 October will be fixed. With the new BTP, which lasted six years (six-monthly coupon indexed to the Foi), the ministry could achieve a historic goal: to rise from the almost 87 billion collected from March 2012 onwards beyond the 100 billion ceiling.
BANKS, TODAY THE FIRST RESULTS OF THE ECB TESTS
Preliminary talks between Italian banks and the ECB begin this morning in view of the final results of the stress tests. The first to face the test will be Banco Popolare and Veneto Banca, followed, until Friday, by the other 12 institutes involved in the exam. The supervisory dialogue will bring together the Eurotower inspectors (supported by the Bank of Italy) and the bank managers in a series of one-to-one meetings in which the Frankfurt representatives will briefly illustrate the outcome of the long monitoring of these months in view of the launch of the Single Supervision (November 4). It will be a sort of first signal, somewhat cryptic to avoid news leaks, which will be followed, on 24 October, by the explicit reporting of any capital needs.
At the top of the Italian banks reigns a certain optimism on the outcome of the operation. After the violent drop on Thursday afternoon, coinciding with Mario Draghi's press conference, the banking index rebounded by 1,7% on Friday.
Unicredit achieved a positive recovery of 2,4%. It fell by 1% over the week. After the sale, through the subsidiary Bank Austria, of 16% of the Austrian real estate Ca Immo (295 million), the auction for Uccmb is nearing completion: the Prelioss/Fortress consortium favored.
Intesa rose by 2,9% (in the week -3,9%), Monte Paschi +2,5%, Ubi Banca +3,4%, Banca Popolare di Milano +2,4%.
FIAT, TO BE PLACED IN THE USA SECURITIES FOR "MORE THAN HALF A BILLION"
“We have nothing to do with Ford's problems”, Sergio Marchionne replied at the Paris show to those who pointed out the difficult stock market situation of the Detroit company, which fell by 11% in the worst week of the last three years. A figure that does not affect the optimism of FCA's number one exactly one week after the landing of Fiat/Chrysler on Wall Street.
“Our benchmark – he said – is to reach a trading volume in New York higher than that of Milan”. A result that, in truth, was not even touched by CNH Industrial in the first year of presence on the Wall Street stock exchange. But FCA should be another story.
Marchionne has estimated at "over half a billion euros" the value of the shares that will be placed on the US market, including the treasury shares in portfolio.
On the subject of the economic situation, Alfredo Altavilla, head of the EMEA area, was cautious about the strength of the recovery after years of declining sales: no more than 2-2,5% in Italy, 3,5% in Europe. Fiat rose by 1,7% on Friday.
FINMECCANICA, TODAY THE MORETTI FORMULA
Spotlight on today's meeting of the public holding company. Mauro Moretti will present to the management the new corporate structure divided into five divisions: Helicopters, Defense Systems, Aeronautics, Electronics and Centralized Services. Moretti himself is verifying the feasibility of a possible sale of the subsidiary DRS which analysts estimate at around 1,3 billion euros. Any sale would help drastically cut the group's debt.
TELECOM ITALIA PREPARES THE OFFER FOR METROWEB
The telecommunications chessboard is in great movement, also in the wake of the tax breaks on optical fiber contained in the Sblocca Italia decree. In the spotlight Telecom Italia, on the move in the Peninsula on the Metroweb front while waiting for the Brazilian electoral marathon to finish: only after that will (perhaps) take shape the negotiations for the merger between Tim Brasil and Oì from which the leading operator could be born both in fixed and in mobile in the third market of the planet. Loaded with debt, though.
