The ups and downs of oil prices continue, yesterday with a strong recovery (Brent +2,5% to 44 dollars a barrel, Wti over 41 dollars) and today down again after the conclusion of the oil industry strike last night Kuwait. Prices this morning are down: Brent -1,5%, Wti -2,1% which should reduce the gains made yesterday by oil companies. On Wall Street, Chevron (+1,6%), Exxon Mobil (+0,7%) and Halliburton (+2,3%) closed higher. Europe also performed well (+1,8% the sector index). In Piazza Affari, Eni recorded an increase of 1,2%, Tenaris +2,9%, Saipem +0,22% after being awarded new contracts for 430 million euros.
This curbs the rise of Asian stock exchanges after a robust start. Tokyo cuts earnings to 0,3%, Sydney +0,4%. Hong Kong drops by 1,1%. Shanghai (-2,6%) and Shenzhen (-3,1%) fell sharply. But the ups and downs of crude oil do not overshadow the growth of lists in America and Europe, driven by quarterly better than expected, both in the US and in Europe. The Bull thus took possession of the Stock Exchanges. Milan is partly an exception: the road to bank recovery is long and full of potholes and traps. But Piazza Affari is afloat thanks to industry.
RECORD AIR IN WALL STREET. S&P OVER 2.100 POINTS
The American stock market is advancing thanks to the push of banks, oil companies and industry. The S&P 500 index surpasses 2.100, a level it hasn't touched since last November. The historic record of last May is only two percentage points away The Dow Jones exceeds 1.800, the Nasdaq (+0,4%) marks the pace, conditioned by the setback of Illumina, an active company that has lost a quarter of its value after the publication of the accounts. Lots of ideas arriving from the quarterly reports.
Goldman Sachs (+2,4%) closed the quarterly cycle of the big banks by beating profit estimates which, moreover, had been greatly reduced. Widespread recoveries: JP Morgan +1,6%, Morgan Stanley +2,3%, Citigroup +1,8%, Bank of America +1,7% . Note, however, Giuseppe Sersale of Anthilia: "Analysts of Deutsche Bank underline that US banks are currently traveling on a -12% growth in profits year on year".
The worst stock is IBM, down 5%. The company announced its most disappointing quarterly result in 14 years in terms of revenue on Monday evening. Netflix falls by 12,7%: growth in subscribers outside the US has been lower than forecasts. After the Stock Exchange, Yahoo's accounts are good (+1%), a setback after the results for Intel (-2,8%).
EUROPE ACCELERATES THANKS TO INDUSTRIES
Positive day for the European stock exchanges inspired by the quarterly and by the strengthening of crude oil. Paris rose by 1,3% in the wake of the results of L'Oreal and Publicis, both up by 5%. London (+0,8%) was driven by commodity-related stocks. Rio Tinto, which recorded an 11% increase in iron ore deliveries in the first quarter. The signs of support from China, the world's main consumer of metals, also count positively.
Driving the race was above all Frankfurt (+2,2%), pushed to its highest levels since 4 January, one step away from the levels of the beginning of the year (-3,5%) by the surge in the Zew index on investor confidence. Since mid-February the increase is 20%.
THE LAW ON DEBT COLLECTION SLIDES, THE BANKS HOLDING DOWN MILAN
The increase in Piazza Affari is much more modest. The Ftse Mib index closed at +0,49%, at 18.447, slowing down in the last part of the session. The decline of the banks started with the news that the government will not approve in today's meeting the measures to speed up the recovery of credits, essential for the "security" of the system: the approval of the provision postponed to the end of the month.
The reaction from Piazza Affari was immediate: all the banks immediately went into negative territory starting with Intesa: -2,42% after a session experienced with a plus sign. Monte Paschi -2,3% and Banco Popolare -2,7%. CEO Pier Francesco Saviotti declared that the institute will not resort to Atlante for the capital increase. “The fund's contribution – he added – will be useful for non-performing loans”.
The worst was Bper (-3,3%). For the other good banks, Ubi (-2,8%) is running for CariFe, Cariparma for Banca Marche and Popolare Bari for CariChieti.
THE NEW BTP 20 IS STEALD. ARGENTINA FILLS UP WITH THE TANGO BOND
The Treasury hit the spot. The new BTp with a 20-year maturity launched yesterday on the market has collected requests for over 18 billion euros against an issue amount that the Treasury has cut to 6,5 billion euros. The operation had a considerable response in Europe and abroad thanks above all to the timing chosen by the Ministry of the Economy at a time when long maturities are the object of desire of large and small investors.
A reoffer price of 99,368 and a coupon of 2,25% were set for the issue, corresponding to a yield to maturity of 2,302%. The bonus is 39 cents on the fifteen-year 2032 rate. According to the calculations of the UniCredit research office, the ministry in Via XX Settembre has exceeded 40% of the 2016 funding target.
Two new developments worth noting on the debt securities front: the umpteenth negative record for Japanese bonds (the 0,128-year bond trades this morning at -2001%) and Argentina has returned to the international bond market for the first time since its default in 3 with the launch of an issue in four tranches (from 30 to 16,5 years) for a total of 6,25 billion dollars. Yields range from 8% (for three-years) up to 68% for thirty-years. Orders exceeded XNUMX billion, one of the largest order books ever seen for a bond offering by an emerging country.
THRILLING DISCOUNT FOR POPULAR VICENZA
But the real trial by fire is for Atlante (it's raining new members, including that of Generali for 150 million and Allianz for 100, plus 240 million from Poste Vita) and for the entire system it concerns the next increase in Popolare Vicenza, which could land in Piazza Affari as early as 3 May after a flash road show that will serve to explain the unprecedented price range: from 0,1 ,3 to XNUMX euros. According to the bank's Board of Directors, "indications of interest have emerged that are not sufficient to allow the determination of a specific indicative valuation range according to normal market practice".
The current bank, in the most extreme case, runs the risk of presenting itself with a symbolic value of ten million euros. An opportunity, perhaps, for the courageous who will subscribe in the wake of Atlante which, after replacing Unicredit in the role of guarantor, will cover the increase of 1,75 billion. But a very serious blow for the 119 shareholders of what, in 2014, was the third largest bank in Italy by capitalisation, after Intesa and Unicredit. At the time, the institute managed to raise 1,5 billion with a capital increase of 6,5 euros per share.
IT ALSO BRAKES THE MANAGEMENT. GOOD UNIPOL
The shower of sales in the afternoon didn't spare asset management stocks either: Banca Mediolanum -1,4%, Fineco -1,9%. Among the insurance companies, Generali closed up by 0,9%, UnipolSai -0,2%. Equita Sim increased Unipol's weight +1,9% in its main portfolio by 50 basis points, confirming the buy rating and the target price at €4,15.
YOOX SUPERSTAR. A PARTNER FROM DUBAI ARRIVES
The session was positive for the other segments of the Milanese price list. The citation of honor goes to Yoox, +4,9% after the news that the entrepreneur Mohamed Alabbar, with his Alabbar Enterprises (a shopping mall chain in Dubai), has subscribed 100 million in a capital increase reserved for 28 euros per share, becoming a shareholder of the e-commerce company with 4% of the ordinary capital (2,7% of the total capital).
The rest of the luxury segment was positive: Moncler gained 2,3%, Ferragamo +2,2%. The recovery in consumption also rewards retail at affordable prices: Ovs was one of the best stocks of the session with a jump of 3,7% to 5,965 euros. Credit Suisse has decided to upgrade the rating to Neutral from Underperform. The target price was only slightly adjusted to 5,80 euros from 5,70 euros.
CNH LEADS THE INDUSTRY RALLY
Among the industrialists, the comeback of Cnh Industrial (+5,3%) is gaining speed, galvanized by the promotion of Bank of America. The title is now looking at the results that will be announced this week by the giant Caterpillar.
Strong increase also for StM (+3,1%), driven by the Buy recommendation by Oddo who started the coverage with a Buy recommendation and a target price of 8 euro. The positive indications arriving this morning from the quarterly of the Dutch Asml allow us to foresee a morning of good purchases on the whole European sector.
Buzzi also stands out (+4%). Exane Bnp Paribas confirms the Outperform recommendation and raises the target price to 24 euros from the previous 23 euros.
Strong earnings also for FiatChrysler (+3%), slightly ahead of the Stoxx index for the sector (+2,8%). New progress for Prysmian (+1,8%).
Finmeccanica closed unchanged at 11,06 euros, canceling the drop in the first part of the session (intraday low 10,77 euros) after the group denied the departure of CEO Mauro Moretti, indicated by some newspapers as a possible minister.
Telecom Italia gained 2,3%, Enel +1,2%.
CALTAGIRONE HOLDS BACK ON RCS AND PROMOTES CAIRO
Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone curbs rumors of his interest in Rcs Mediagroup (+0,35% to 0,58 euros). “There is an Antitrust limit – he said during the meeting of Caltagirone publishers -2,27% therefore we cannot add our market share to that of RCS because “by taking Corriere della Sera we would have to sell other things. Corriere della Sera is a magnificent newspaper and is the object of everyone's desire, even the Italian publishers. I see movements on the market and I hope that whoever buys it, or intends to buy it, will do well. Urbano Cairo is known for his ability and seriousness”.
