ASIAN EXCHANGES RECOVERY WAITING FOR THE FED
Central Bank Week has begun. Tonight Ben Bernanke will open the two days of the Fed's monetary committee: the markets expect a choice already tapering (gradual reduction of the purchases of securities on the markets) and tightening (tightening of credit conditions). The first hypothesis is favored.
Thursday will be the turn of the ECB and the Bank of England. In the meantime, the Stock Exchanges are cautious. Tokyo rises +1,45% one hour after the closing, thanks to the slowdown in the yen. Hong Kong +0,7% and Shanghai +0,1% are in positive ground. Cautious Wall Street: Dow Jones -0,24%, S&P -0,43% and Nasdaq -0,39%. The Cac40 of Paris remained unchanged, the Dax of Frankfurt +0,09% and the Ftse 100 of London -0,12% moved slightly. Bringing up the rear was Piazza Affari: the Ftse Mib index lost 0,89%.
Yesterday the Italian Treasury successfully placed 8,5 billion 6-month BOTs with rates significantly down to 0,799% from 1,052% at the end of June. But the spread widened during the session to 279 bps. Today the auction of 5 and 10 year BTPs is held.
The negative performance of the Italian market, despite the recovery of business confidence (at its highest level since November 2011), can be explained by a double "B factor": the political unknown linked to the verdict of the Cassation on the Mediaset trial (+0,4% yesterday on the Stock Exchange) to Silvio Berlusconi: the perfect storm that has gathered over the banks, the most represented sector in Piazza Affari.
EIGHT INSTITUTIONS UNDER THE BANKITALIA LENS.
The last six places in the Eurostoxx Banks index (-0,7%) included six Italian institutions, hit by various negative factors. And today's day doesn't promise to be easy.
In fact, yesterday evening it became known that the Bank of Italy is carrying out an assessment of the entire credit portfolio of eight (medium-sized) institutions and a document from via Nazionale will be published shortly on the institutional website. Under the Supervisory lens there are institutions that own 40% of the impaired loans in the system: around 100 billion out of a total of 249 billion. Last autumn, it was learned yesterday, the Bank of Italy had asked after checks for provisions for 3,4 billion more to the system. It is the worthy conclusion of a perfect storm, which has been unleashed since the morning.
First of all, the Populars fall, starting from B. Pop. Milan -5,9%. Il Messaggero has published some details of the Bank of Italy's inspection report from which many critical points emerge with respect to company assessments.
Sales have also hit Where's Banca-4% Pop. Emilia Romagna + 5,3% Banco Popolare -3,8%.
It falters Mount Paschi -4,64%. The European Commission has requested stricter conditions for the approval of the 3,9 billion euro Monti Bond. Meanwhile, between today and tomorrow, the investigation by the magistrates of Siena on the acquisition of Antonveneta is expected to be closed.
Mediobanca -3,7% and Unicredit -2,3% are also under fire. According to the consensus estimates gathered among 21 Italian and international brokers, the bank in Piazza Cordusio (the results are expected on August 6th) should have closed the second quarter with growing results: operating income of 6,214 billion, a net operating profit of 886 million, a pre-tax profit of 809 million and a net profit of 349 million (169 million at the end of June 2012). The best performance is from Intesa, -0,3%.
WILL IT BE THE DAY OF FIAT/CHRYSLER?
Fiat +3,1%, it was the best blue chip of the day. Chrysler's quarterly accounts will arrive from the USA this morning. A few hours later, the results of the second quarter of the group will be published. The attention of investors, however, is focused on the possible news on the Chrysler deal, in particular the decision of the Delaware court regarding the price of the shares held by the union fund Veba, on which Fiat boasts a call options.
Tomorrow it will be the turn of Fiat Industrial +0,92%: consensus estimates for the company on its way to marriage with CNH indicate a trading profit of 580 million euros, a result before taxes of 485 million and a net profit of 290 million euros. Net industrial debt is forecast at €2,55 billion.
WALL STREET, DELLA VALLE AND MEDIOBANCA PAY THE CASH
Hudson's bay -6,9% company that owns department store chains Lord & Taylor and The Bay, announced the acquisition of the luxury retailer Saks Up 3% on $2,9 billion in cash ($16 per share).
The operation also concerns Diego Della Valle: the owner of Tod’s, in fact, is the second largest shareholder of Saks, with 22,7 million shares, after Carlos Slim (25 million).
The entrepreneur from the Marche region, credited with a package of 22,7 million shares, equal to approximately 15,08% of the capital, is preparing to collect approximately 362 million dollars. The operation also touches Mediobanca which last February had acquired 7,98 million shares equal to 5,3% of the capital and which could therefore obtain 127,7 million euros.
PIAZZA AFFARI TAKES REFUGE IN EXPORTS
Good performance of asset management: Azimuth + 3% Mediolanum + 1% B. Generals +0,8%. Other medium caps with a strong vocation for exports shine. Ansaldo Sts.Impregilo was awarded a USD 680 million contract in Saudi Arabia to build a line of the new Riyadh metro. The contract also includes an option (approximately an additional 249 million dollars) for the next 10 years of maintenance.
Brembo +3,2%, Ubs raised its target to 17 euros from 13, confirming the buy opinion. Piaggio +1,4% promoted to neutral by Mediobanca with a target price raised to 1,85 euro from 1,65. De Longhi +1,3% Friday communicated a good quarterly performance and Bank of America confirms the buy judgment by reducing the target price to 14 euros from the previous 14,3.
Goes down Eni -1,7%, despite the sale to China National Petroleum Corporation for 4,2 billion dollars of the shares of the company Eni East Africa. Saipem -1,4%. Among the industrialists: Pirelli + 2,2% Prysmian -1,8% StM -3% Finmeccanica+ 0,7%.
Telecom Italia loses the 2,9%. The rating agencies are asking that the 2013 net debt of the telecommunications giant fall below 27 billion, a figure therefore less than 2 times the expected EBITDA in 2015. Furthermore, the agencies are asking for a reversal in the trend of declining profitability.
