The February edition of Market Watch, Banca IFIS's free observatory which collects the main data relating to macroeconomic trends and financial markets, was published today. Forecasts for 2017 were analyzed this month, from which a general positive drive emerged in all market sectors in which Banca IFIS is present.
Here are the main findings:
– Macro trend: positive GDP growth in the first months of 2017, which follows leading economic indicators. For 2017, GDP growth of 0,9% is expected, supported in particular by consumption for business investments;
– Factoring: in December 2016 turnover growth of approximately 9%. In 2017 a growth rate of between 8% and 9% is expected in the first quarter and over 4% on the total for the year;
– Medium and long-term loans close 2016 with almost zero growth while an increase between 2017% and 0,5% is expected in 1,5, with a particular focus on non-financial companies. Estimated a decline in short-term loans due to the expected improvement in working capital conditions of companies;
– The volumes of net bank NPLs are up by 2% compared to the beginning of 2016, with the incidence of net NPLs on loans flat at 4,80% for 3 months, showing an increase of 16 basis points compared to the beginning of XNUMX 'year;
– M&A: 2016 closed with a contraction in M&A volumes against growing deals. Foreign operators were the main players on the Italian market. In the first half of 2017, a further increase in the presence of foreign investors in Italy is expected, especially from China;
– Leasing: ended 2016 with growth both for new contracts (+16,8%) and for new financed volumes (+15,9%). In 2017 a further growth of 15% is expected compared to 2016, favored by three factors: introduction of hyper-depreciation for industrial goods 4.0; confirmation of existing concessions; production growth;
– Retail deposits: private deposits recorded a slight increase (+0.1%) in December 2016, while for businesses there was a reduction (-2% compared to October) and falling rates.
