“Macri has nothing to do with the center-right as we understand it nor, as some foolishly claim, with Berlusconi: he is an American-style liberal and is an absolute novelty in the Argentine political landscape. It is a great opportunity to leave Peronism behind for good”. To bless the possible exploit of Mauricio Macri in the presidential ballot that today November 22 will see him face, with an unexpected favor in the polls, the protégé of the outgoing President Cristina Kirchner (and former man of Carlos Menem, president of the great crisis of the 90s) Daniel Scioliis the professor Julius Sapelli, Professor of Economic History at the University of Milan and a great expert on Argentina and South America.
Calabrian origins – his father is Franco Macri, controversial entrepreneur in the automotive sector and public construction contracts (in 1968 he even built the Buenos Aires nuclear power plant) and owner of the Socma holding company which has a turnover of over five billion dollars a year - the 56-year-old leader of “Cambiemos”, Mauricio Macri he was governor of the city of Buenos Aires from 2007 to the present and president of the Boca Juniors, from 1995 to 2007 (period in which he won 17 trophies, 11 of which were international). For the first time in its history, Argentina was led by Macri to choose the President of the Republic in the second round of the ballot, challenging the theoretically favorite "Front for Victoria” led now by Scioli. The former deputy of Nestor Kirchner, husband and predecessor of Cristina, and also of obvious Italian origins (his great-grandfather was from Molise), in fact got more votes in the first round (38% against 34%), but failed to get the absolute majority "due to" the dissident Sergio massa, which subtracted 21% from the cause of Peronist continuity.
The "left" would therefore still have the majority on paper, but a rumor is circulating in Argentina that Sapelli also confirms: "Friends and colleagues tell me that about two thirds of the votes that went to Massa in the first round could be diverted to Macri in the ballot”, thus making him the surprise favourite. The Massa case, the President's former chief of staff then torpedoed due to differences in particular on the issue of security, was according to Sapelli an own goal by Kirchner but not the only one. “Kirchner's real disaster was economic policy: Argentina no longer has an economy and has zero international credibility.” In the dock above all public spending, which has indeed reduced poverty (from 68% in the Menem era, the one that culminated with the "corralito", to 15%) and the unemployment (today below 7% but expected to exceed 8% in 2016) but at the cost of the explosion ofinflation. “It was a fake recovery – accuses Sapelli -: episodes such as the en masse hiring of piqueteros (the organization of the unemployed known for its often violent protests, ed), passed off as Keynesian politics, they cry out for revenge. Kirchner has emptied the state coffers and falsified the statistics (to date inflation is officially at 25%, the second highest in the world according to Ft, and GDP is expected to decrease in 2016, ed): the first mission of the new president, I hope Macri, will be to check the status of Central bank and to reindustrialize the country, reopening it to foreign capital. With the anti-Yankee Peronism of the last presidency, Argentina has dramatically isolated itself”.
Macri in fact, more than Scioli who stands in continuity with his predecessor, immediately said that his policy will be complete and immediate opening to the markets, winking at the United States, with which the question of the "vulture funds" (for which Washington has a credit of 1,5 billion dollars) is still pending, and also at Europe. “In particular with Italy – explains Sapelli – which is very exposed in Argentina with some large companies such as Fiat and Telecom: Macri has top-level consultants who have deep relationships with Italy”. And also with Great Britain, with which it would seem that the liberal candidate intends to definitively close the issue Malvinas or Falklands whatever, in exchange for a share of oil. “This, however, would do well to say in a few years. It's an excellent idea, but excellent ideas are better kept for when power is more consolidated”.
As regards relations with the USA in particular, in case of victory Macri could represent a discontinuity not only for Argentina but for the whole South America, in recent years characterized by more or less markedly anti-American leaders: from Chavez and then Maduro in Venezuela to Morales in Bolivia, from Mujica in Uruguay to Rousseff in Brazil. “They are very different cases: for example, I'm big friend and admirer of Mujica, while not many know that Morales, who is considered revolutionary, is actually the expression of the Andean bourgeoisie. In any case, South America would do well to open up: the two Americas must be close because there are many Latinos in the North and because of the complementarity of economies". The South has energy resources, among the most envied on the planet, the North brings technologies and capital. It is the repetition of a century-old history, which has also seen the North plunder the South, thinking first of its own interests than of the development of the area. But for Sapelli “that's welcome: South America cannot afford to isolate itself. We've seen where the Brazil with Dilma's choices".
And if instead in today's Argentine ballot Scioli should win in the end? “The people forget too easily: the government of Menèm, of which Scioli was an exponent even if it must be said that his position is now more evolved and closer to the selective protectionism of the senior economist Aldo Ferrer, led Argentina to economic collapse at the end of the 90s. Menèm sold off all the public companies that were overwhelmed by debts, not however to liberalize but rather to remove them from the competition. Argentines should ask themselves why today there is no railway network worthy of the name, which strongly penalizes not only tourism but above all the economy”. In short, it is the Peronism which must be overcome even if, as argued by the economist who from 1993 to 1995 was the Italian representative of Transparency International, an organization that fights against economic corruption, working closely with Macri's then partner, "no one has ever understood what Peronism is, but at most we know what it is not: it is neither of the right nor of the left and destroyed Argentina”.
However, Argentina, whoever wins, will have obtained one discontinuity: that of democratic participation. In a country that has suffered from dictatorships and where the presidential challenge had never been so balanced as to reach the ballot, the televised debate that hosted a few days ago face to face between Scioli and Macri it was followed by over five million people: the show Capital y Gran Buenos Aires reached 53% of the share in some moments. Both candidates reiterated their proposals: Scioli promised to attract "productive investments" and to take care of "national industry and Argentine workers"; Macri spoke about the infrastructure development plan in the north of the country and the creation of two million jobs, as well as surprising everyone on international politics by demanding the suspension of Venezuela in the Organization of American States (OAS) and the repeal of the memorandum with Iran.
The most convincing, needless to say, seems to have been Macri himself: the more than 15 people who voted through the application of the newspaper “Clarin” they attributed the best performance to the outgoing governor of Buenos Aires with 63%, against the 37% obtained by the heir of Cristina Kirchner. Also specific polls made on the web portals of newspapers and TV channels (from Tn to C5n) awarded the opposition candidate. Now the word goes to the polls.
Also read: "Turning point in Argentina: the liberal Mauricio Macri becomes president and dismisses Peronism".
