Italy avoids the European infringement procedure for the moment, but takes on a gigantic mortgage on its future. These are the VAT safeguard clauses, which this year are not only postponed, but also increased. And by a lot.
The danger does not concern the year that is about to begin. In 2019 the value added tax will remain stable, because with the maneuver 12,4 billion are allocated precisely to avoid the sting on consumption. As always in recent years, this is by far the most significant expenditure item of the budget law.
BY HOW MUCH THE VAT COULD INCREASE
The question is very different for the next two years. To finance basic income and quota 100 without blowing up the accounts, VAT risks increasing by no more than 2% – as was expected until yesterday, in the worst case scenario – but by 3-4%.
- The VAT rate at 10% (reduced)
The strengthening of the safeguard clauses does not affect the reduced rate, that of 10%, for which two increases were envisaged: to 11,5% in 2019 and to 13% in 2020. The first was avoided, while the second it is also foreseen to the same extent by the new manoeuvre.
- The VAT rate at 22% (ordinary)
The devil is hiding in the ordinary rate, today at 22%. Last year's maneuver established three increases: to 24,2% in 2019, 24,9% in 2020 and 25% in 2021. Also in this case, the first was defused. On the other hand, the other two have become even heavier. In fact, the new Budget law provides that the ordinary rate will rise to 25,2% in 2020 and 26,5% in 2021.
HOW MUCH MONEY IS NEEDED TO AVOID VAT INCREASES
But the worst news is that much more money than expected so far will be needed to avoid these increases. The sum necessary to sterilize the clauses in fact, it went from 13,7 to 23,1 billion for 2020 and from 15,6 to 28,7 billion for 2021. In the final account it is 51,8 billion. In practice, the equivalent of two financial maneuvers will be needed just to block the VAT increases.
EUROPE IS "WORRIED"
Was referring to this Valdis Dombrovskis, vice president of the European Commission, when Wednesday, later the green light for the Italian manoeuvre, expressed "concern" about "the composition of the announced measures". The reason is that in 2020 and 2021 the costs of basic income and pension reform will increase compared to 2019, because the two measures will become fully operational and will have to be incurred for 12 months instead of nine. Italy has assured Europe that these additional costs will be covered without increasing the deficit: the safeguard clauses on VAT are a guarantee. "We know that in the past Rome has never activated these clauses - commented Dombrovskis - If it doesn't want to do so in the future, it will have to find huge resources elsewhere".
SALVINI: "NO VAT INCREASE, NEITHER TODAY NOR IN THE FUTURE"
Despite Europe's fears, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini flaunts security: "We have not increased VAT this year - he said - and we will not increase it in the coming years". It will be enough to find more than 50 billion.
