Morning of fireworks for the European Stock Exchanges. Effervescent Milano, where the tug of war on Generali is broadcast. In the meantime, the Supreme Court in London has established that a vote of Parliament will be necessary for the start of negotiations for leaving the EU.
Against this backdrop, the Milan Stock Exchange consolidates its initial rise, with the FtseMib index gaining 1,2% around 19.600 points. Positive ground for the other European stock exchanges, but with increases of around 0,2%, with the exception of Madrid (+0,6%).
Sterling lost ground to 1,2457 (-0,6%) after the decision of the British Supreme Court on Brexit. “On a substantial level, little changes – comments Julius Baer hotly – Theresa May knows she has the Conservatives in her grip, otherwise she would not have exposed herself to asking for a hard Brexit”.
It weakens the dollar at 1,074 against the euro. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that a too strong dollar carries risks for the US economy.
Gold slightly down after yesterday's high in the last two months: the price is 1.215 dollars an ounce (-0,2%).
Il crude it is up with Brent at 55,7 dollars a barrel (+0,9%). Eni recovers +0,8% after yesterday's drop. Tenaris +0,4
Il BTP 1,98-year is almost unchanged at 0,38%, Bund XNUMX%.
TOMORROW THE BOD OF THE LION: VIA MINALI, DONNET STRONGER
Piazza Affari is betting on Intesa's takeover bid on Generali in response to the move by the Lion who bought 3,01% of the bank's voting rights last night. Generali, at this point potential prey, jumped up by 9,40%. Understanding loses 5,17%. Speculation also goes on Mediobanca, the main shareholder of Generali, which rises by 10,35%, and Banca Generali +3,08%.
Tomorrow the board of directors of the Leone will be held and the meeting will focus on the exit of the general manager, Alberto Minali, after the disagreements that would have emerged with the managing director in relation to the perimeter of the group and the divestment policy, in particular for as regards the French market (Donnet is inclined to rationalize the group, with the sale of less profitable activities, while Minali would have liked to continue with the industrial restructuring of some currently unprofitable areas).
EQUITA AND MEDIOBANCA SECURITIES BELIEVE IN THE TAKEOVER OFFER
The development of the dispute surprised analysts who reviewed yesterday's skepticism. Equita writes: "The only strategic scenario available to Intesa is that of launching an exchange offer given that the hypothesis of buying a 15-20% share package would not guarantee any control". The strategic alternative, again according to Equita, could be the purchase of Unicredit's share in Mediobanca, equal to 8% and the subsequent launch of an offer on Piazzetta Cuccia itself. In this way the institute would indirectly become the first shareholder of the company with 13% and could coagulate a blocking minority in an anti-takeover key.
"The fact that the Lion has decided to prevent any action by Intesa Sanpaolo reinforces even more the recent rumor relating to a possible agreement with Axa - analysts of Mediobanca Securities argue - And, in the case of an offer by of the French insurance company – they add – we do not rule out a counter offer from Allianz”.
For all these reasons, in a report on the insurance sector, Mediobanca Securities recommends remaining positioned on Generali (outperform and target price raised from 15,5 to 17 euros), while this morning it cut its rating on Allianz (target price to 175 euros ) and on Axa (target price at 25,5 euros) at neutral.
The battle is extending to Unicredit (+3,25%), one of the key areas of the challenge just a few days before the capital increase. Ubi + 1,5% Bpm bank + 2,7%.
Unipol (+2,6%) and UnipolSai (+3%) are also advancing in the insurance sector: the hypothesis of a pole that includes the group, Bper and Creval is making headway.
The management is also good. Azimuth +1,2%: Goldman Sachs raises its target price to 23,2 euros from 22,3 euros. Buy confirmed. Mediolanum Bank +2,6%: Goldman Sachs raises its target price to 8,4 euros from 7,7 euros, Neutral rating confirmed.
They go up Telecom Italy (+ 0,8%) and Mediaset (+1,2%). Vincent Bolloré has not made the request to have directors representing 29,9% of the share capital enter the Alfa board of directors. Fedele Confalonieri himself said it this morning.
Industry titles earn: Fiat Chrysler +1,5% a few hours after Sergio Marchionne's meeting with Donald Trump Goldman Sachs raises its target price to $20,8 from $17,5, Buy judgment confirmed. The upside potential is very strong, equal to +102%.
Cnh Industrial +0,7%: Goldman Sachs raises its target price to 11,2 dollars from 10 dollars. Buy judgment confirmed.
