The battle has moved to silver. iShares Silver ETF, the largest investor in the metal, rallied on Friday, according to the Financial Times, at least one billion dollars of new signings. The race for purchases on the BlackRock fund was unleashed after an invitation from the Reddit forum headed by Wallstreet/bets to buy options and securities to "squeeze the banks" uncovered on the metal. The response was immediate: silver prices rose by 6%, to 28,61 dollars an ounce in Asia, after a similar increase on Friday following the suggestion of "The Happy Hawaiian": with our purchases, ran the invitation, we will force short sellers to source silver by physical delivery. It is said that the attack will not succeed also because the position of the banks, according to the operators, is much more solid than that in the case of GameStop.
VOLATILITY IS INCREASING, THE DOLLAR IS RISING
But the swarm of traders on some stocks translated into a sharp increase in volatility. According to Goldman Sachs, last week the volumes of purchases for the closure of bearish positions, added to sales from the easing of bullish positions, rose to levels not seen since 2009. A mortgage on the rise in stock markets.
Against this backdrop, the dollar strengthens: the euro trades at 1,2129, well below the recent high of 1,2349.
The 1,08-year Treasury notes trade at 1.110%. $60 trillion of U.S. card debit is arriving this quarter, 2020% more than gross new lending for the same period in XNUMX.
Gold at 1.860 dollars, +0,7%, impervious to the pirouettes of silver.
COUP D'ETAT IN BURMA +0,9% THE ASIA PACIFIC INDEX
Asia woke up this morning to the news of the coup in Myanmar. The military arrested Aung San Suu Kyi and all the leaders of the National League for Democracy. The army announced a one-year state of emergency and transferred all powers to military leader Min Aung Hlaing.
The first week of February began in the East with widespread increases in shares: the MSCI Asia Pacific index gains 0,9%, first session with a plus sign after four consecutive sessions with a minus sign.
CHINA SLOWS DOWN, INDIA WANT TO BANN CRYPTOCURRENCIES
Tokyo Nikkei +1,3%. Hang Seng of Hong Kong +2%. CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists +1%. The Chinese economy is starting to show some signs of fatigue, probably caused by the restrictions imposed by the Beijing authorities when the pandemic reappears in some areas of the country. The Caixin Pmi index fell in January to 51,5 from 53 in December: the consensus was expecting 52,3.
The Indian government will present its draft budget for 2021 today: a public spending program is expected with heavy investments in the vaccination plan and welfare. Among the government's plans there is also that of banning private cryptocurrencies and creating a national one.
US FUTURES UP: IT'S ABOUT STIMULUS
Wall Street futures are up 0,3% this morning. Progress is expected on the plan that the new Biden administration is preparing to launch to support the American economy, with the Senate evaluating the possibility of resorting to a simplified procedure to speed up the approval process. Yesterday the Republican minority proposed a stimulus of 600 billion, about a third of what Biden proposed, threatening, in case of refusal, filibustering, i.e. a parliamentary boycott.
PMI INDEXES TODAY. ITALIAN GDP IN THE WEEK
Week full of macro data, from the trend of US employment to the Italian GDP in the fourth quarter. Analysts expect a -2,1% economic trend for the last quarter of the year and a -6,7% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. Eurozone GDP is also out. The trend of the international economy will be measured by the PMI manufacturing indices for January arriving from France, Germany, the Eurozone, Great Britain and the United States.
After the talks with the political forces of the outgoing majority, the Speaker of the Chamber, Roberto Fico, reconvened them for this morning to a common table on the program of the possible new government. Fico will have to report the outcome of his exploratory mandate to the President of the Republic by tomorrow.
CONFINDUSTRIA IN THE FIELD FOR GUALTIERI
The president of Confindustria, Carlo Bonomi, said he hoped for a new "serious, authoritative and competent" government, with the confirmation of Roberto Gualtieri at the Ministry of Economy. The Quirinale has formally denied any contact between Mattarella and the former president of the ECB, Mario Draghi.
Germany's December retail sales data is to be watched today. In Italy and in the Eurozone, the numbers on employed and unemployed will be released, again in December. Car registrations will arrive in the evening in January. Great Britain is set to release data on consumer credit for December, but the spotlights are on the meeting of the Bank of England, which could decide on another rate cut.
QUARTERLY: IN THE USA IT'S THE TURN OF AMAZON AND ALPHABET
On the corporate front, on the day of the videoconference of the European commissioner for the digital agenda, Margrethe Vestager, the quarterly data of Amazon, Alphabet and Alibaba were communicated in the USA. Attention to Pfizer's results, in the eye of the storm for the distribution of vaccines. The accounts of Shell and Ryanair are also on the way.
PIAZZA AFFARI DEBUT WITH FERRARI, THEN IT'S THE TURN OF ENEL, SNAM AND CNH
At Piazza Affari, the season of the quarterly reports gets into full swing. Tomorrow it will be Ferrari's turn, followed by Bper on Wednesday, Ubi on Thursday and Intesa on Friday. Among the other big names that will communicate the accounts are Enel, Snam and Cnh. To follow next Sunday the Super Bowl, the most awaited sporting event in the United States. A change of sponsors is expected because, for the first time in decades, it will not be in the Coca-Cola game. Among the testimonials, the presence of Brad Pitt stands out.
