Waiting session on the markets, waiting for Thursday's inflation data in the United States: what the Bureau of Labor Statistics will say should set the cruising speed of rate hikes in the United States, but also increase pressure on the ECB. Traders are expecting at least four rate hikes in the US. In Europe, despite the demands of the hawks, the central bank seems determined to resist at least until December.
While waiting for the inflation data, the scene is occupied by the financial and the most solid tech stocks, Apple and Microsoft in the lead. The oil companies sell in the wake of a possible agreement between the US and Iran, while gas is marking time awaiting the results of Emmanuel Macron's mission to the East. The focus is on T-bonds: The yield on the 10-year US Treasury is down two basis points since the last close, to 1,94%. Yesterday the highest level since the beginning of the pandemic was reached, at 1,96%. In short, the bear is lurking.
Wall Street's rebound has given Asian Pacific stocks a helping hand. Tokyo's Nikkei gains 0,9%, Seoul's Kospi 0,8%, Sydney 1%. On parity the Straits Times of Singapore.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng is the leader of the day with an increase of almost 2%, trailing Alibaba (+6%) and JD.Com (+5%).
The Chinese stock exchanges are more cautious: the CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists rises by 0,3% thanks to the purchase support of financial companies close to the Beijing authorities.
The US markets were positive yesterday. The S&P 500 index rose 0,8%. Dow Jones +1,06%, better than the Nasdaq (+1,28%).
Pharma stocks contrasted. It disappoints Pfizer, which closes the Covid year with 102 billion in revenues (against the 105 billion expected). Fly Amgen (+8,1%) announcing a new buyback.
Peloton splashes (+20%) after the changing of the guard at the top of the exercise bike manufacturer which, pending offers from Nike, Amazon and Apple, announces the dismissal of 2.800 employees.
WTI oil is up 0,4%, at 89,4 dollars a barrel: yesterday's session closed with a drop of almost 2%. The euro dollar and the yen rose slightly.
Rates, the fever on BTPs is still rising. Bunds +0,26%
Even though inflation is still at high levels, Bruno Le Maire expects to see a decline towards the end of the year. These are the words of the French Minister of the Economy, taken as a model of a government strongman in Annihilating, the best seller by his friend Michel Houellebeck. But market operators, alas, are not great readers. And so, on the wave of the rise in yields on T-Bonds, with the 1,969-year rate at 2,75, up by 2019% (the top since November 1,85), the yield on the 2020-year BTP also rose to 0,26 in the afternoon, 4%, the highest since May 154. The ten-year German Bund reaches levels not seen for about three years at +XNUMX% yield, +XNUMX basis points. The spread closes at XNUMX points.
S&P: the ECB will move in December
According to S&P, it is unlikely that net purchases of bonds by the ECB will reach zero before September 2022. The investment bank therefore sees a first potential rate hike in December 2022. But Frankfurt could already move at the March meeting, on the based on the new macroeconomic forecasts and in light of the new information received in the meantime on energy costs, exchange rates and wage trends.
The Treasury is auctioning off 7,7 billion bonds
In this context, Treasury auctions return. The Mef has announced the medium and long-term issuance of three-, seven- and twenty-year BTPs up to a total of 7,7 billion euros. These are a BTP on 15 December 2024 and a seven-year bond maturing on 15 February 2029, both for an amount between 2,5 and 3 billion euros. The twenty-year bond (1,2 billion) instead expires on 2041 March XNUMX.
The dollar gains ground and holds off a recovering euro at 1,141, while traders await US inflation data which could fuel bets on faster-than-expected rate hikes. The single currency jumped by 2,7% last week after the rigid tone of the ECB.
Slowed rebound in Piazza Affari (+0,31%)
The new flurry of sales on US bonds dampened the rise of most European stock exchanges. Eurostoxx50 +0,2%. At the end of the session, the Ftse Mib recorded a gain of 0,31%, from +1% in the morning to 26 points.
According to data released by Istat, retail sales in Italy grew by 7,9% in value last year - compared to the -5,2% recorded in 2020 - and by 7,2% in volume. On an annual basis, sales rose 9,4% after +12,4% (revised from 12,5%) the previous month.
In the rest of Europe, the best market is Madrid (+1,3%), driven by the banks. Frankfurt (+0,26%) and Paris (+0,27%) are warmer; Amsterdam is flat and London loses 0,11%.
BP up 0,33% to close, 1,65% on top after reporting biggest 8-year earnings, $12,8bn in 2021 earnings, and announcing plans to increase share repurchases to 1,5, $1,25 billion a quarter from $XNUMX billion.
Axa +2,2% after Morgan Stanley's promotion to overweight.
Employment continues to rise in OECD countries
The OECD announced that the unemployment rate in the OECD area decreased for the eighth consecutive month in December, to 5,4%, from 5,5% in November, 0,1 points above the pre- pandemic observed in February 2020.
In Italy, unemployment fell to 9% from 9,1% in November. The unemployment rate fell below its pre-pandemic level in Australia, Chile, France, Iceland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Portugal, Spain, Turkey and Italy. The figure also decreased in December for the eighth consecutive month in the Eurozone (7%, from 7,1% in November).
Banks in charge: Bper and Credem run
In the spotlight are banking stocks, recovering after the spread effect. Intesa Sanpaolo strengthens (+2%), but the pink jersey is up to Bper (+4,7%). Credem runs (+3,7%) after the record results awarded by brokers. Banca Akros has raised its rating to accumulated from neutral, with a target price of 7 euros (from 6 euros). Mediobanca securities confirmed the target price of 7 euros on the stock: "Overall the results were about 10% better than expected", write the analysts.
Mps celebrates Lovaglio, Morgan Stanley promotes Generali
Mps is very toned (+6,8%) after the change in top management, beyond the psychological threshold of 1 euro, despite the loss for the quarter (-79 million) worse than expected.
Among financials, Generali performed well (+0,9%), on which Morgan Stanley has started hedging with an equalweight rating. Fondazione Crt and Leonardo Del Vecchio are considering the possibility of dissolving the consultation pact on the company, a few days after the departure of Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone.
On the asset management side, Morgan Stanley has instead started hedging Poste Italiane (+0,6%) with an overweight recommendation, a target price of €14,90.
Telecom awaits the super Iliad, leap from Cnh
In the red Telecom Italia (-0,89%) even if observers believe that Iliad's offer on Vodafone Italia is not negative for the former incumbent, who could get rid of a strong competitor.
Among the industrialists, Cnh did well (+2,45%) after the 2021 results. Iveco, on the other hand, was heavy: -3,66% after the results. Leonardo rebounds: +2,43%.
Saras takes off, utilities grounded
Saipem sinks, down by 3,90%, on its lowest since 1993. The market continues to penalize the stock while waiting to understand what the amount of the capital increase operation will be. Down Eni: -1,14%.
On the contrary, Saras flies (+7,56%), driven by the growth of refining margins.
Utilities still suffer, weighed down by the increase in interest rates: Enel loses 1,55%. Losses over 2% for Hera, A2A and Iren.
