When the parity between euro and dollar? The docking will happen in August, according to Nomura, who foresees an "inevitable" overtaking of the American currency against the European one up to 0,95. There landslide of the single currency, already down to 1,0238 (-10% since the beginning of the year), will coincide with the entry of European economies into the tunnel of recession: -1,7% already in the third quarter, primarily due to the effect of the gas bill (+465% in one year), which threatens to rise again: on 11 July Gazprom will close the taps of the Northstream 1 gas pipeline for maintenance, as happens every year.
By the end of the year, the euro/dollar cross will be at 0,95. Italy and Germany in the sights
But this is not just any year: the news of a strike in Norway is enough to make the price of gas on the Dutch futures market jump by 10%, now to unsustainable levels. Paradoxically, the perfect storm that has hit the markets is completed by the collapse of oil prices, pushed down together with American gas by the prospect of declining consumption. In short, as you read on Bloomberg, don't be fooled by appearances: "Tourism in full boom will not free Italy from the energy nightmare". Given these premises, it is not surprising that the Bear has chosen Europe as the main victim of the crisis. But be careful: for Nomura the recession will continue its journey and will hit the United States and other major economies.
Eurostoxx futures +1%, flat for the USA
After yesterday's collapse, this morning Eurostoxx futures anticipate an attempt to rebound in the Old Continent's stock markets: +1% in view of the opening
Contracts on the US markets are in red instead. Asian stock markets were weak this morning: Tokyo's Nikkei -1,2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng -1,4%. CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists -1,2%. Kospi of Seoul -1,2%. The Singapore Stock Exchange remained on par, while the Mumbai Stock Exchange rose by 0,5%.
China's BYD (with Warren Buffett) beats Tesla
Sensational overtaking in the world of electric cars: the Chinese BYD, which includes a stake of Warren Buffett, sold more than Tesla in June. However, Covid is once again frightening: the authorities have ordered new mass tests in nine districts of the megalopolis of Shanghai.
Oil prices collapse, techs to the rescue
Multi-faceted session for the American markets, under the pressure of oil, falling to below 100 dollars. The collapse in commodity prices had initially depressed the entire US stock market yesterday, but the trend reversed during the session. The Nasdaq, favored by the sharp drop in bond yields, closed up 1,7%, from the -2% recorded at the start of the day. The S&P 500 (+0,16%) was also positive, while the Dow Jones (-0,42%) was penalized by the decline in the oil sector. The worst stock in the benchmark basket was Halliburton (-8%).
The pound suffers. Boris Johnson abandoned by Rishi Sunak
In Europe, sales concentrated on the price lists most exposed to the energy emergency, namely Milan (-2,99%) and Frankfurt (-2,91%).
Great tension in London (-2,91%). The pound weakens following the resignations of two important ministers, that of the economy and that of health. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who shouldn't be able to withstand the impact of two such heavy exits, has already nominated replacements: the post of Chancellor of the Exchequer vacated by Rishi Sunak will be taken by Nadhim Zanawi, a conservative politician of Kurdish origins, until Minister of Education yesterday.
The BTp at 3,13 at its lowest for a month
Fears of a recession have pushed market rates down. The yield on the 2,83-year Treasury Note dropped to its lowest level in the last month and a half, at XNUMX%.
The yield curve, on the ten-two-year stretch, is inverted: the spread is -1 basis point. Statistics and part of economic doctrine state that the inversion of the curve anticipates the recession. 3,13-year BTP at XNUMX%, on the lows for a month.
There was no relief for the euro overnight: this morning the cross reached new long-term lows at 1,024, down 0,2%.
Oil down 8,4%. Citi bets on $65 a barrel
The Bloomberg Commodity Index closed down 4,5%, the largest daily change in the past four months.
WTI oil is around $8,4, up slightly, following its 104% decline. Brent at $2007. The considerations that triggered the movement all originate from a question: if the economy stops, as the prospective data are anticipating, will there be a drop in the demand for energy? Will people spend less, drive and fly less, factories work less? And so on. We have already seen this during the two-year period 2008-150, when the price of oil, due to the bursting of the subprime bubble, quickly went from 40 dollars to 65 dollars. Yesterday Citigroup warned that it could reach XNUMX dollars a barrel within a few months and that next summer we could be below fifty dollars.
Hot titles: Fincantieri, Stm and Tenaris.
Fincantieri with MSC starts the construction of two new generation hydrogen ships.
Stm: Global semiconductor sales increased 18% year over year in May, with all product categories and geographies increasing.
Tenaris: After yesterday's 8% collapse, a buying opportunity is looming in the event of a rebound in Brent (+1%).
Saipem: trading of rights on the stock exchange ended yesterday. It is expected that the bank guarantee syndicate will have to underwrite securities for more than 12%.
